Mpac Share Discussion Threads

[disc0dave45] 13/2/2023 10:57

Good luck to you too.
They will be reviewing the pension payments next year I believe so it could be reduced, who knows.
The profit warning wasn’t particularly reassuring about the quality of the business either, but each to their own.
No doubt someone will be having a childish dig at my views, all I can say is never ever trust anyone that constantly posts up “alleged”; trades on their holdings and try’s to drown out an opposing view.
All the best.

[disc0dave45] 13/2/2023 10:50

They pay £1.9m pa as a direct pension deficit payment ((which increases by 2.1% pa) and they also incur annual costs, at H1 they stated it was net £0.4m. The annual costs are not included in their underlying numbers and the pension deficit payment doesn't go through the P&L.Folks can choose to ignore £2.3m leaving the business or not, IMO why would you ignore such a large number when valuing the business.

[shaker45] 13/2/2023 10:48

Dave, I understand your views. Personally I am happy to play the Long game because I think mpac are good at what they do, and bespoke packaging will command a premium for years to come. Also I think their deficit payments may diminish despite their funding commitment
But I have been wrong before!
Best of luck

[disc0dave45] 13/2/2023 10:31

Don't think so, they've stated that they are committed to paying £2.3m per annum up to 2025.I'm just flagging that IMO this is a very expensive stock. Even if they hit forecasts it's on a PE of 18x, and IMO their cash outflows for pension deficit payments should be taken on board when rating the business, why would you ignore such a large sum of money leaving the business for years to come!?., the underlying earnings are then only 3p per share (pension payments are equivalent to a hit to earnings of 11p per share (and this isn't a "forecast" it's a known).Appreciate my views are negative but that's how I see it, the plus is they will have a decent amount of additional cash on the books post 2025 - can I be bothered to wait when there are lots of quality businesses out there at much lower ratings!.

[shaker45] 13/2/2023 10:19

Dave, is it possible you over estimate the size of the pension issue? Surely the deficit will get smaller as the market recovers, and mpac can pace themselves, taking longer to fund the deficit??

[our haven] 13/2/2023 10:10

If you wait until all the eggs are lined up, you may as well just buy a index.Sentiment will be very important at this stage in driving the share price up or down. Profits and pension deficits change dramatically in these markets, so we will see where they are going forward.Good luck with your investments.

[disc0dave45] 13/2/2023 09:40

Good morning.....in a word no. Why buy a business whose profits are nearly four times less than cash going out the business to pay pension deficit. That's assuming they even hit their earnings forecast which is questionable.

[our haven] 13/2/2023 09:33

Good morning disc0dave45So you are not tipping MPAC:-)

[disc0dave45] 13/2/2023 09:29

Jeez, a tip to pump and dump.

[blackhorse23] 13/2/2023 09:26

Switched to CURY (LSE)

[davebowler] 13/2/2023 09:06

Tipped here -

[castleford tiger] 13/2/2023 09:04

Discodave maybe changed his mind?
Tiger

[value viper] 13/2/2023 08:57

Tipped somewhere perhaps

[our haven] 13/2/2023 08:05

Some nice buying at the opening driving the price up this morning.Could be an interesting day.

[castleford tiger] 08/2/2023 16:11

Certainly not in love with MPAC but i am on a journey.
Thanks for your concern and i hear the warnings.

I assume you are talking historic P/E ?

Anyway lets visit this in a year and see who was right

tiger

[disc0dave45] 04/2/2023 17:53

Don't know what you've posted CT as filtered but guess it's your usual defence of a share you love and appear to be blind when it comes to the reality - this is massively overvalued: IF they hit target eps PE 17x, IMO be lucky to hit 10p, that's a PE of 23.5x, if you take on board costs that are not exceptional, namely the pension deficit repayment then underlying eps is -1p to 3p a PE of 78x.

[disc0dave45] 04/2/2023 14:30

No surprise IMO.As posted previously their £2.3m pa pension deficit recovery payments don't go through the P&L, that's the equivalent cash outflow on underlying profit (that's not booked) of 11p per share. So the underlying business is IMO only forecast in reality to earn 3p per share........work out the PE on that basis and it's no wonder nobody's buying!, massively overvalued.

[castleford tiger] 31/1/2023 09:02

just bought 10k ( split in 3 lots ) at 2.25

But i agree its very weak

tiger

[my retirement fund] 31/1/2023 08:36

No buyer out there at all, every sale lowers the offer, no takers at all ! Fresh lows ahead.

[value viper] 26/1/2023 18:55

Ok - nuff said - ta

[darrin1471] 26/1/2023 14:26

Freyr 1.23B USD mkt cap

Ended 3Q 2022 with $419 million of cash
$147 million of net cash used YTD 2022

[value viper] 26/1/2023 13:47

What kind of market cap is FREY chaps ?Ta

[darrin1471] 26/1/2023 10:58

seeking alpha:
Morgan Stanley downgrade FREYR Battery (NYSE:FREY) to an Equal-weight rating and slashed its price target on the electric vehicle stock by 50% to $13 due to execution risk seen for the year ahead.

Analyst Adam Jonas said it has been more than enough of the conditional off-takes and it is time for the battery manufacturing company to make cells before the financing can flow.

"We continue to believe that Norway offers unique competitive advantages and that the Sovereign has an interest in supporting a strong domestic battery player for long term success. That said, we view 2023 as a year where many EV/Battery-related companies are moving from business plan to hard manufacturing – and where execution risk is rising and the need for financing is existential."

Morgan Stanley anticipated more significant funding in calendar 2022 for Luxembourg-based FREYR and thus forecasts substantial negative cash flow in the next few years. Still, FREY stock is called high risk-high reward for investors willing to bet the company can achieve a level a commercial viability that most other EV de-SPACs have been unable to achieve.

SHhares of FREYR Battery (FREY) were down 5.66% in premarket trading on Wednesday.

[castleford tiger] 23/1/2023 17:13

Leo

Thanks for the great post.

I thought I had read the pension surplus was more than the 17m.

However we all know these things change fast but i think what we are paying in will be reduced........we will soon have this information.

Whilst i can see they suggest a small debt figure is quoted at the year end and i had missed that.........by the end of 23 the suggest a strong turnaround in cash to a healthy position again.

I am clearly more bullish than most on here as I feel the statement to be cautious so as to not miss new targets.

I think by several routes the shares look very good value with 60/90% upside in the price.

We need to see how this unwinds but I feel by the time that's clear the price may of moved.
Hence me buying more stock to add to my core holding.

good luck.
Tiger