Mpac Share Discussion Threads

[castleford tiger] 17/1/2023 08:13

Hence the recovery in margin............agree with that

[my retirement fund] 17/1/2023 07:47

Procurement was a headache last year. This year, it should be normal supplies, albeit more expensive. Hopefully they are passing on input costs now.

[castleford tiger] 17/1/2023 05:47

Ok using EBIT forecast 3.9 last year
7.4 current year and 10.9 in 24

What damaged last year was margin
They got caught behind the inflation curve in my opinion.
Full 22 revenue is slightly up on 21 but margins were trashed.
Tiger

[my retirement fund] 17/1/2023 03:34

You have to remember that this line build out is just the qualification line! Clearly, FREYR is happy with progress, hence September's framework agreement. The qualification line is likely to be small beer in comparison to the full-scale factory fit out, right?

[disc0dave45] 17/1/2023 01:04

The Group continues to make good progress in the development and build of the clean energy casting and unit cell assembly line for FREYR Battery. Completion dates have been updated to accommodate customer specification changes and we are on track to complete the contract in Q2 2023.

[leoinvestoruk] 16/1/2023 22:32

MRF,

Just a note that saying FREYR is on track for Q2 does not mean it is on track with where it was in the previous update. The last known position (possibly from FREYR) was that Mpac were due to deliver to the QCP in December.

[leoinvestoruk] 16/1/2023 22:29

CT, DD45,

H1 Revenue reported £50.6m
FY Revenue guided £95.0m (in line, but with £15.4m cash AWOL)
H2 Revenue guided £44.4m
So, H2 guided revenue is certainly down on H1 and FY guidance is essentially flat on 2021's £94.3m.

Most quoted EPS figures are meaningless due to the accounting pension "surplus" movements, adjusting out ongoing pension running costs, cash recovery payments, share based payments, FX translation and/or frequent accounting adjustments, so I wouldn't say 10.4 H2 EPS is impossible just because H1 was 3.6p on higher revenue.

BUT surely the point here is that most of the £15.4m year end cash miss guided today relative to the forecast issued less than 3 months earlier (albeit based on the September update) is guided in the Shore note to end up in contract assets. These were already high and now look to approximately double. This is a massive revenue recognition red flag and studying IFRS 15 plus Mpac's revenue recognition policy I personally cannot see how they will successfully recognise that big an increase in contract assets. I expect FY reported revenue to end up closer to £85m.

(I use Shore numbers throughout, but Equity Development have similar)

[disc0dave45] 16/1/2023 21:07

Rev is in line
H1 eps 3.6p
You reckon 10.4p eps H2 on lower Rev! I must be missing something then.
Had this conversation before and you misinterpreted H2 Rev when deducting H1 from forecast Rev - it’s lower.

[castleford tiger] 16/1/2023 19:01

Rev for the year will be up.
EPS is quoted at 14p

You need to read the note

Tiger

[disc0dave45] 16/1/2023 17:53

I'm ignoring the order book rhetoric as all they've stated is they are in line (Rev and underlying pbt). So revenue H2 will be less than H1 at £44.6m as posted previously. So I still make underlying eps about 7p. That's a PE of 39x.FY23 revenue forecast to increase by 10%, although consensus seems to suggest eps will increase by 78% (don't know how and think it's not been updated since the massive profit warning!), but even going with that ridiculous growth that's an eps of say 12.5p (IMO more like 8p-9p), so still a very high forward PE of 22x.Would say it's overpriced!.

[my retirement fund] 16/1/2023 16:39

I guess that's why the share price is £3 instead of £6. I think if you a glass half empty type of person and believe order intake will not improve in the next few years this shares not for you but if you think we can now see over the horizon it's stupidly underpriced. It is difficult to see an argument for being overpriced, tho.

[disc0dave45] 16/1/2023 11:48

Closing order book down massively (£16m) in H2 compared to previous year and down £9m for the year.Still massively overpriced IMO.

[my retirement fund] 16/1/2023 10:30

There is no clue to 20th March, but it's flagged to unwind by next Q1. Must be enormous outlays, though, probably one reason the share price does not reflect the potential here.

[castleford tiger] 16/1/2023 10:04

My only concern is the cash flow .
13.6 m in cash and a pre tax profit of 8.6 m has now become 4.2 m debt even after another 3.5 m pre tax profit.
It’s touched on but we need to see a big reversal in 23 and 24 as we are not getting a dividend so cash profits should be adding to the nav of the business.
I need to dig into this deeper when I get time . What is the NAV

[my retirement fund] 16/1/2023 08:39

Looking excellent value down here now. FREYR on track to. That's an important piece of work for long term future.

[edmonda] 16/1/2023 07:22

Trading Update this morning - new research report out from Equity Development

Link to note:

In a Trading Update today, Mpac Group reports performance for the year to 31 December 2022 in line with expectations, with a strong FY22 closing order book; the outlook for FY23 is “encouraging”. We have raised our FY22 (adj.) EBITDA outlook by 8% and FY23 by 13%.

Reflecting resilient demand in the core Healthcare and Food & Beverage segments, order intake in the second half of FY22 was significantly above first half levels, leading to a healthy year-end closing order book of £69.0m (H1 22: £62.6m). In addition, Service order intake and contribution to revenue continued to grow. Mpac adds that, inclusive of modified specifications, the development and installation of the clean energy project for FREYR remains on track for completion in Q2 23.

Mpac was required to adjust its operations to meet the impact of the worldwide disruption of supply chains and related macro-economic factors. The response was good management of components sourcing and stock levels, in addition to alternative routes of sourcing. This resulted in the ability to better meet customers’ expectations and, in H2, improve profitability. The exercise required additional working capital – in areas such as inventory build - and adapting to lengthened project build timing, for which we estimate Mpac has ample balance sheet resources. We expect the pressure on working capital to unwind in H1 23, with estimated FY22 year-end net debt of £4.2m reverting towards an estimated 31 December 2023 net cash position of £5.3m.

Our fair value for Mpac remains 485p/share, indicative of a FY24 EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.9x compared to 4.6x at current EV.

[castleford tiger] 13/1/2023 10:08

3580@ 2.79
5000@ 2.72
5000@ 2.50
5000@ 2.48

so far this week

[my retirement fund] 13/1/2023 09:53

I'll trust your judgement on that Tiger!

[castleford tiger] 12/1/2023 22:09

I have been buying again

[my retirement fund] 12/1/2023 13:16

Weak no buyers any large sale at a sizable discount

[my retirement fund] 03/1/2023 18:05

Lack of new seems to be pulling out many more sellers. Could me a long wait and more weakness ahead. Looking at taking a view here upon the next RNS.

[se81] 19/12/2022 10:33

Still going- wonder if we’re going to get some pre Xmas news?

[castleford tiger] 15/12/2022 08:05

tanners

MOLINS eh thats when i started at 40p paying a great big dividend as well

a fair few years ago that is.

I still hold those shares plus many more now
tiger

[my retirement fund] 14/12/2022 23:58

Well then, lighten up and keep buying!