Mpac Share Discussion Threads

[disc0dave45] 08/9/2022 12:18

They are committed to pension contributions of £1.9m pa to 2024.
Edit: sorry looking at my notes it’s up to £2.3m to 2025, so possibly exceeding this years underlying pbt.
Consensus f/cast Rev H2 is less than H1 at £44.6m (£95.2m for the year). So going on that and margins don’t improve then year end underlying pbt will be about £2.1m. Jeez, only 10% above their pension payment! and on a forward PE of about 33x (year end eps circa 7p).
Net cash burn H1 was £5m as well.
They aren’t managing inflationary and supply headwinds at all by the looks of things and orders are fairly flat - customers going elsewhere, can’t blame them.
Thought this could have been a decent recovery play, now I’d not be surprised if another profit warning pops up. Surprised it’s not fallen further tbh.

[disc0dave45] 08/9/2022 10:43

Seems like a lot could be hinging on FREYER.What was the contract worth? and have they met the deadline or has their supply issues breached the contract terms?. A successful framework appears now IMO to hinge on their delivery capabilities, which going on current performance seems in doubt?.H1 numbers don't inspire confidence either, Rev up 14% and they've gone from pbt of £4.7m to £1.1m. Margins have been destroyed!.

[castleford tiger] 08/9/2022 10:21

clanger
yes already have a list and booked on

[clanger66] 08/9/2022 08:44

Equity development are hosting a webinar with Tony Steels at 10am on the 19th Sept. Free to join and questions can be submitted during the presentation to be addressed at the end. Maybe something to ask Tiger.

[castleford tiger] 08/9/2022 08:15

The IAS 19 valuation of the UK scheme as at 30 June 2022 shows a surplus of GBP59.7m (GBP38.8m net of deferred tax), compared with a surplus of GBP35.7m (GBP23.2m net of deferred tax) at 31 December 2021. The main driver of the increase in the surplus was the increase in the discount rate required by IAS19, partially offset by the effect of the liability matching programme on asset values when discount rates rise.

When will be able to stop pumping cash into this?
tiger

[edmonda] 08/9/2022 08:15

First half FY 22 results mirrored the July trading update with revenue of £50.6m +14.5%YoY close to our revised estimate of £49.5m, and a closing order book at £62.6m (H1 21 £62.0m), which remained firm. Inflationary pressures and supply chain disruption remain features, however the Group continued to implement mitigating processes. We also note positive discussions with FREYR Battery towards a framework agreement for the installation of battery cell automation lines.

The underlying direction of travel for the markets Mpac targets remains unchanged. Spurred by the challenges of introducing environmentally friendly processes and packaging, and reducing plastic content and waste, Mpac’s target Healthcare and Food & Beverage verticals continue to require the innovative packaging and automation systems solutions in which the Group specialises. Mpac’s diversification into the new clean energy market provides a timely addition to the demand picture and offers the prospect of commercialised processes and solutions for wider application.

Our outlook, revised at the time of the July trading update, remains unchanged: for the current year: revenue of £96.0m, and EBITDA (adj.) of £6.1m, indicative of an EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.6x.

Our fair value for Mpac remains 485p/share, indicative of a FY24 EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.7x.

Full details in our new report published this morning:

[clanger66] 08/9/2022 07:58

Note out from Equity Development entitled Staying the course. They keep to their revised outlook from the July update. Fair value remains unchanged at 485p. They also highlight as per previous two posters the positive discussions with FREYR.

[our haven] 08/9/2022 07:28

Bigbigdave. I too was pleased that FREYR batteries got the mention.They say that they are positioning for growth, pleasing again.I fear that the market will be harsh on them this morning as anything but great news tends to get that treatment in these market conditions. Hope that I am wrong and it is already in the price.

[bigbigdave] 08/9/2022 07:09

At least FREYR get a mention this time.

Financial Highlights

· Order intake of £32.8m (2021: £51.7m) contributing to a closing order book of £62.6m (30 June 2021: £62.0m; 31 Dec 2021: £78.4m)

· Group revenue of £50.6m up 14% (2021: £44.2m), with Original Equipment up 17% and Service revenue up 6%

· Underlying* profit before tax of £1.1m (2021: £4.7m)

· Underlying* earnings per share of 3.6p (2021: 18.3p)

· Statutory loss before tax of £0.4m (2021: £2.8m profit)

· Basic loss per share of (3.6)p (2021: earnings 10.6p)

· Cash of £9.5m (30 June 2021: £11.2m; 31 Dec 2021: £14.5m)

Positive discussions with FREYR Battery (''FREYR'') towards agreeing a framework agreement for the exclusive supply of battery cell automation lines

[castleford tiger] 01/8/2022 22:46

This was the remaking shares I bought to trade at 225
Happy coming out over 300 with this batch.
My holding remains the same.

[shaker44] 01/8/2022 12:47

You closed our already Tiger?? You know something that makes you nervous?

[castleford tiger] 01/8/2022 10:46

Out of my trading position now.

[castleford tiger] 25/7/2022 16:12

Shaker44 I hold a very large stake before the last batch

[shaker44] 22/7/2022 21:19

Surprised Tiger. I expect this to outperform as the market recovers,even though that will take time.
But I have been wrong before!

[castleford tiger] 22/7/2022 16:48

Sold half of the 55000 between 260/5

[clanger66] 15/7/2022 16:18

Huge volume printed at 250p

[castleford tiger] 12/7/2022 10:47

55000 at 2.25 order being filled about halfway there

[my retirement fund] 12/7/2022 10:46

If its a struggle to do 13p eps this year the risk money is going to be off the table next year so £1.50 may break as the economy tanks in the coming months ahead.

[fuji99] 12/7/2022 10:20

IMO I cannot see any reason for the share price not to return to sub 150p as nothing would give it a stimulus to recover in 2022. This is valid for all stocks as retail sales is falling as never before and many other factors in addition to Russia/Ukraine - are pointing to economic hardship or even a recession.
Some bad news around. - - -

[shaker44] 12/7/2022 04:17

In these markets what looks cheap today maybe cheaper next month. Waiting it out feels like the best strategy.

[apatel21] 11/7/2022 19:35

Tiger you'll bounce backReally tricky markets and even trickier economic backdrop - massive drop off in demand in May/June seems to be catching a lot of Co's outYour invested in good quality Co's with strong Balance Sheets - must make them susceptible to a takeover

[richjp] 11/7/2022 18:03

This is one I luckily got right as I sold out completely at around 600P in August September last year. Unfortunately I am still holding other shares where in retrospect I wish I had also sold.

I was concerned all along that they were likely to encounter supply chain issues, as so much of their new client work seems to be involved in custom solutions involving products from multiple suppliers.

I still think they are a well managed company and in a couple of years the share price will be back at its previous heights however I am not bold enough to go in now.

I will watch and wait and possibly buy in when the recovery is well established even if I have to pay a bit more.

[disc0dave45] 11/7/2022 11:48

Extract from this mornings small cap value report on Stockopedia:"But the company's broker previously had an adj. EPS forecast of 34.5p. It has today reduced that forecast to 13.7p, or by 60%.The forecast for next year is reduced by 26%, to 27.4p."