Mpac Share Discussion Threads

[castleford tiger] 17/5/2023 10:30

I think now is the time to start pumping some cash into these again.

With 5 months of the year gone and EPS forecast of 25.5p the shares are trading on 9x.

for next year EPS of 38p even on todays valuation of 9x = 342p.

No debt but actual net cash which is growing.

The shares should start to move up and even more as i expect earnings upgrades to come from the company later this year and early 2024.

Its a strong buy in my opinion.

Sceptical investor

Maybe you were joking!

Tiger

[our haven] 17/5/2023 07:38

Looks pretty encouraging, the supply issues behind them and they are able to for fill their order book. Fingers crossed for a decent opening.

[scepticalinvestor] 17/5/2023 07:37

150p open?

[edmonda] 17/5/2023 07:24

AGM statement - new research from Equity Development

Link to research report with audio summary:

In a statement accompanying the AGM, Mpac Group reports that the positive momentum of Q4 22 has been maintained, with order intake and quotation activity significantly ahead year-on-year. As expected, pressure on working capital has eased - the completion of orders and shipment of equipment means that Q1 23 closed with a positive net cash position, which is expected to be maintained in H1.

This is a clear validation of the steps undertaken in the latter part of FY22 and a strong positive indicator for the current year. We note that Mpac expects trading to be second-half weighted, with the order book sufficient to meet revenue expectations. The positive momentum reported should continue.

The core message of this AGM statement is that Mpac continues to focus on its key markets, notably Healthcare and Food & Beverage, where the shortage of key components in FY22 constrained the ability to deliver, and where there is now evidence of healthy demand.

Our fair value for Mpac remains 485p/share, indicative of a FY24 EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.9x.

[my retirement fund] 21/4/2023 10:29

Looking sick

[disc0dave45] 27/3/2023 14:59

Presentation.Https://mpac-group.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Mpac-Group-Investor-Presentation-2022-FINAL.pdf

[castleford tiger] 22/3/2023 19:21

Can’t disagree with that view.

[disc0dave45] 22/3/2023 17:46

Not seen the note, just went on the numbers they issued today and their cash position at H1.Guess the gamble here is that they will deliver and continue their recovery, just posting my view that the risk reward doesn't seem favourable to me, much better options out there which are in a better position and a lot cheaper....wtfdik

[castleford tiger] 22/3/2023 17:09

disc

Net debt was £4.7m, which we expect to revert to a £7.5m net cash position in FY23.

have you seen the note released today?

tiger

[deltaham] 22/3/2023 16:19

By Simon Thompson

This niche small-cap packaging engineering group faced multiple headwinds last year, but a recovery in gross margin and a solid order book point to a strong recovery in 2023

[disc0dave45] 22/3/2023 15:24

"it does say Circa 69 million in the trading statement.They also say the cash flow will unwind in the first half of this year."Fair points (sorry missed the "circa")They've also said that the disruption to their supply of electronic chips continues........despite them saying they've sought alternative supplies.For holders sakes let's hope they do unwind the cash in H1, that's some drawdown and level of working capital. Trade receivables seems a lot higher than normal too.Sorry but I don't see anything here from an investment perspective, it's too expensive and one would have to have a tremendous level of faith that the business can recover.

[castleford tiger] 22/3/2023 15:09

disc / MRF

it does say Circa 69 million in the trading statement.

They also say the cash flow will unwind in the first half of this year.

I will reserve judgement until we do the presentation.

tiger

[disc0dave45] 22/3/2023 14:23

Cash burn for H2 was £14.2m!. They've now drawn 40% of their RCF so £12m remains.The discrepancy in their closing book value may be down to their comment about late orders and not getting the cash in on time?.

[my retirement fund] 22/3/2023 10:51

Good spot, 69m v 67m clearly someone cancelled an order. A bit of a wake up call that the company has been booking orders ahead of both payment, execution and delivery! A flashing red light if ever there was one !

[disc0dave45] 22/3/2023 10:20

In January they said their closing order book for the year was £69m, results today they said it was £67.2m, why the discrepancy?.Also, thought their eps forecast for the year was 14p, fair play though as didn't think they'd even make 13.3p.Even excluding the £2m pension deficit payments this is on a PE of 19x.

[fuji99] 22/3/2023 09:52

Mpac results is just a confirmation of the symptoms of a stagnating economy worldwide. The banking turmoil is now going to put stronger breaks on investment as was shown by Amazon, Google and many others in various sectors. IMO we will have a stagnating growth in 2023 and beyond unless the banking sector is stablised and the Ukraine conflict resolved. Geopolitical issues with China aligning with Russia are going to make life difficult and kill the global economy if the world is dividing in economic blocks.

[disc0dave45] 22/3/2023 09:19

Massively over valued.

[my retirement fund] 22/3/2023 08:57

Unrepresentative. Freyr contract excitement gradually being managed downwards. Unsurprisingly share price marked down, could sell off lot more in coming weeks imo

[edmonda] 22/3/2023 07:44

New research note with audio summary from Equity Development:

FY22 results show a platform for growth - For the year to 31 December 2022, Mpac Group reported revenue of £97.7m, +3.6%YoY, EBITDA (adj.) of £6.8m, ahead of our outlook, -39.3%YoY, and PBT of £3.5m. Service revenue grew 14.4%YoY to 23.6% of the total. The year-end closing order book was £67.2m (FY21: £78.4m). Net debt was £4.7m, which we expect to revert to a £7.5m net cash position in FY23

Orders underpin FY23 earnings visibility - The FY22 closing order book was £67.2m with order intake at £83.8m, compared to £83.9m in FY20 and £117.9m in FY21. By FY24 we expect a return to top line growth of above 10%YoY and EBITDA growth of above 30%YoY, with revenue from Service approaching 30% of total.

Supply chain pressure eases - As expected, Mpac required additional working capital in order to meet customer expectations and offset the impact of supply chain disruption. This amounted to £17.8m (our estimate: £18.7m), including inventory build to £9.6m. We forecast this to unwind as the backlog of projects completes in H1 23; Mpac reports that contract assets – projects awaiting final factory sign-off – peaked in Q4 22 as the supply of key electrical components improved, allowing project completion prior to shipment. Cashflow was also constrained by the timing of customer deposits carried over into FY23. We expect working capital to improve to above £3m, and FY22 net debt of £4.7m to revert towards an estimated 31 Dec 2023 net cash position of £7.5m. Mpac continued to progress development of casting and unit cell assembly equipment for the battery cell production line at FREYR’s Battery Customer Qualification Plant in Norway. Agreed changes resulted in a revised plan for delivery in Q1 23, and commissioning in Q2 23.

Appointment of new CEO - Tony Steels, who has led the Group since 2016, has announced his retirement. COO Adam Holland will become CEO post-AGM on 17 May. Adam joined Mpac in late 2022 having held senior positions worldwide at JCB, Siemens AG and Rolls-Royce.

Fair value remains 485p - Following the January 16th Trading Update we raised our FY23 revenue outlook from £103.6m to £104.7m, (adj.) EBITDA by 13% to £9.6m, and our FY24 revenue outlook from £113.4m to £115.8m, with (adj.) EBITDA from £12.9m to £13.0m (see note here). We retain these estimates. Our fair value for Mpac remains 485p/share, indicative of a FY24 EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.9x.

[edmonda] 22/3/2023 07:44

New research note with audio summary from Equity Development:

FY22 results show a platform for growth - For the year to 31 December 2022, Mpac Group reported revenue of £97.7m, +3.6%YoY, EBITDA (adj.) of £6.8m, ahead of our outlook, -39.3%YoY, and PBT of £3.5m. Service revenue grew 14.4%YoY to 23.6% of the total. The year-end closing order book was £67.2m (FY21: £78.4m). Net debt was £4.7m, which we expect to revert to a £7.5m net cash position in FY23

Orders underpin FY23 earnings visibility - The FY22 closing order book was £67.2m with order intake at £83.8m, compared to £83.9m in FY20 and £117.9m in FY21. By FY24 we expect a return to top line growth of above 10%YoY and EBITDA growth of above 30%YoY, with revenue from Service approaching 30% of total.

Supply chain pressure eases - As expected, Mpac required additional working capital in order to meet customer expectations and offset the impact of supply chain disruption. This amounted to £17.8m (our estimate: £18.7m), including inventory build to £9.6m. We forecast this to unwind as the backlog of projects completes in H1 23; Mpac reports that contract assets – projects awaiting final factory sign-off – peaked in Q4 22 as the supply of key electrical components improved, allowing project completion prior to shipment. Cashflow was also constrained by the timing of customer deposits carried over into FY23. We expect working capital to improve to above £3m, and FY22 net debt of £4.7m to revert towards an estimated 31 Dec 2023 net cash position of £7.5m. Mpac continued to progress development of casting and unit cell assembly equipment for the battery cell production line at FREYR’s Battery Customer Qualification Plant in Norway. Agreed changes resulted in a revised plan for delivery in Q1 23, and commissioning in Q2 23.

Appointment of new CEO - Tony Steels, who has led the Group since 2016, has announced his retirement. COO Adam Holland will become CEO post-AGM on 17 May. Adam joined Mpac in late 2022 having held senior positions worldwide at JCB, Siemens AG and Rolls-Royce.

Fair value remains 485p - Following the January 16th Trading Update we raised our FY23 revenue outlook from £103.6m to £104.7m, (adj.) EBITDA by 13% to £9.6m, and our FY24 revenue outlook from £113.4m to £115.8m, with (adj.) EBITDA from £12.9m to £13.0m (see note here). We retain these estimates. Our fair value for Mpac remains 485p/share, indicative of a FY24 EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.9x.

[c1d] 10/3/2023 10:50

Encouraging (IMV) confirmatory comment about Mpac in Freyr annual report:
"Mpac has collaborated with FREYR on automated solutions for the Company’s CQP, and together the two companies will now transfer this knowledge to the planned Giga Arctic facility."

[mfhmfh] 07/3/2023 18:45

hxxps://rethinkresearch.biz/articles/freyr-on-track-as-remains-of-britishvolt-are-sold-off/

[castleford tiger] 07/3/2023 17:52

50% up now in quick sticks

[gorse] 27/2/2023 22:10

Darrin - rising gilts and interest rates means that future liabilities are discounted more heavily (I agree there may be temporary mark-to-market losses on the assets side).