Mpac Share Discussion Threads

[my retirement fund] 11/7/2022 11:31

If that forecast is true it looks grossly overpriced even after this mornings haircut

[disc0dave45] 11/7/2022 11:16

Their broker has apparently reduced this FY eps by 60% to 13.7p, and by 26% for next year to 27.4p (according to commentary on Stockopedia).Had previously had this on my watchlist but their pension contributions (circa £2.3m pa to 2025) put me off. It will now virtually match their profits for this FY, that's a big chunk to be paying. I'm also concerned with the messages the BoD are putting out, they virtually implied in May that the majority of costs were being mitigated, well a 60% reduction in bottom line earnings suggests to me that they clearly were not on top of resolving their supply chain issues and subsequent costs.As the Dr posted, feel for holders and let's hope they do sort the issues out for 2023 - it's then looking decent value!.

[scepticalinvestor] 11/7/2022 10:41

Still abt 50% over valued - will wait for the low 1s for a dead cat bounce

[dr biotech] 11/7/2022 09:23

Looks a bit overdone, but bear markets magnify losses and I’m not expecting any sort of bounce anytime soon.

This has been on my watchlist for a while as it makes up part of scsw model portfolio (which has suffered heavily recently). I’ve taken plenty of hits recently so feel for those in here. Presumably a recession will help ease supply lines and transport costs for thos that survive it.

[tiswas] 11/7/2022 08:47

Sorry to hear that CT. You could do no wrong 18 months ago but it seems to have gone pearshaped with quite a few you hold recently.

The stretch options package agreed and notified a week or so ago persuaded me to tip my toe back in the water here. Big mistake. Clearly you cannot read between the lines on any rns these days!

[castleford tiger] 11/7/2022 08:36

Ouch holding far to many

[fuji99] 11/7/2022 08:18

It has issued only 20 million shares; so the swings upwards or downwards are always wild. This will now stagnate for the remainder of 2022 without adding the global effects such as inflation, possible recession and the ongoing Russia/Ukraine conflict without any end on sight. IMO I cannot see any sector where to invest anymore in 2022 except large pharmas such as AZN/GSK and to some extent HIK. I am out for the remainder of the year and will remain so if no visibility in world economy is flagged up. I have nothing to lose by being out but a lot if I remain in such a swinging - on a daily basis - uncertain market.

[mngf] 11/7/2022 08:16

The issue is that they expect things to get better next year, which they may not....

[napoleon 14th] 11/7/2022 08:10

Whoops! 380 to 260p, c. one thrid down.
That looks savage IMO but that's the market at the moment.

[suetballs] 11/7/2022 08:08

485p seems a long way off now - any bad news in the current climate and the share price is savaged.
Holding shares is not much fun atm.
Suet

[zimbtrader] 11/7/2022 08:06

Ouch. Probably an over reaction but that's an awfully sharp knife to catch!

[edmonda] 11/7/2022 08:03

Mpac - FY22 first half trading update: supply chain pressure

New note from Equity Development:

In a trading update for the half year to 30 June 2022, Mpac reports that supply chain difficulties affecting the availability of critical components has impacted on delivery lead times to customers. Mpac reiterates a strong prospective pipeline and order book, and has implemented a series of mitigating measures. Nevertheless, combined with inflationary pressure on costs, the impact on profitability leads us to reduce our outlook for FY22:

FY22E: revenue of £96m, +1.8%YoY, previously £105.0m.
FY22E EBITDA (adj.) of £6.1m, reduced from an estimated £11.6m.

Taking into account the impact of supply chain issues on near-term profitability, but cognisant of the strength and direction of underlying demand, discipline in cash management – including the potential fruits of collaboration with Freyr Battery – we adjust our fair value for Mpac shares from 660p to 485p, indicative of a FY24 EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.7x.

[my retirement fund] 11/7/2022 07:47

This looks like its going to be a nasty falling knife now, one that I most certainly won't be catching!

[our haven] 11/7/2022 07:24

Nobody likes a profits warning but they are assuring us that it is temporary.The market will react in its usual way of overdoing the price correction no doubt, so it will be painful this morning.I for one will be looking at the opportunity to buy more on the back of this as the company is in a strong position going forward.

[suetballs] 11/7/2022 07:21

Ouch - not such a sunny day for mpac!
Suet

[gary1966] 11/7/2022 07:12

Are they on fixed price contracts or just not feeling that they can pass cost price inflation onto the customer?

[cravencottage] 11/7/2022 07:07

profit warning

[our haven] 04/7/2022 09:24

Excellent timing CT

[castleford tiger] 01/7/2022 18:29

added 45000 shares this week to my holding.

Tiger

[dan_the_epic] 01/7/2022 17:47

Dan_the_Epic6 Mar '20 - 22:33 - 806 of 1604 Edit
0 0 0
cant tell if serious?

Need to open your eyes to the downside as well as the upside. This is a hugely geared business. It could easily do 10p or even 5p eps if the going gets tough in the world and businesses defer spending.

in 2018 it only did 4.5p!!



//////////////////////////////

This still applies today when the recession hits this year and next

[leoinvestoruk] 01/7/2022 14:56

FREYR announced it had sanctioned construction their first gigafactory this week. I believe it is more than likely Mpac will get the contract for casting and unit cell assembly and that the size will be game-changing. There's a full writeup on my blog here:

[zimbtrader] 23/6/2022 17:50

Not unusual. Same has happened the last 2 years (granted - not as steep a drop as per so far) but bounced very nicely after a July trading update.I am mulling over buying more but it would need to be an exceptional TU I fear... This market is only for the brave or stupid.

[my retirement fund] 23/6/2022 11:27

One to watch but I suspect it may be off to 300p sooner or later so will take a view then

[riverman77] 23/6/2022 10:36

Very weak recently (I guess in line with the market) but took the opportunity to buy a small position. Recent trading updates looked fine and rising bond yields should be good for the pension surplus too.