Morses Club Share Discussion Threads

[smithie6] 09/2/2021 22:04

...I know about the losses from the digital division/section but those are seen as mostly being set up costs

...I was just trying to highlight the profitability of the HCC division

[opaldouglas] 09/2/2021 16:09

Smithie6 - It's worth looking at the digital losses which have been significant in recent years, MCL are forecasting break even later this year which will really help profitability and it's a potential huge growth area. I posted my thoughts in the thread last year as understanding the accounts was a bit of a head scratcher. I've penciled in circa £8m PBT this year (ending this month!)and £19m next year.

OD

[nibble] 09/2/2021 15:58

Agree the numbers look good, Smithie. Took a few more on board yesterday but had to keep a sharp eye on the spread as I could easily have paid an extra 2p if not patient.

[smithie6] 09/2/2021 15:28

& from the annual data for the period to end of Feb. 2020


"Normalised adjusted HCC profit before tax1 of £24.5m, an increase of 8.9% (FY19: £22.5m)

· Statutory HCC profit before tax £21.2m is an increase of 2.4% (FY19: £20.7m)"

(HCC being 1 division, not the whole company)

giving a ratio wrt current cap. value of the whole co. (£70million) of about 1:3 !!

[smithie6] 09/2/2021 11:34

"Adjusted HCC profit before tax ((in H1) of £6.8m, a decrease of 48.1% (H1 FY20: £13.1m)"

(HCC being 1 division, not the whole company)

if one assumed H2 to produce the same HCC profit then its a PBT of £13.6million
(& if the profit returns to that for 2020 at some time, then the HCC profit wrt the cap. value of the whole company makes the whole co. look far too cheap imo)

company cap. value. £70 million

far too cheap imo

[smithie6] 08/2/2021 22:02

uptrend seems still to be chugging away

[bobosh13] 05/2/2021 18:43

Thanks all for the replies, all make sense.

I was just wondering if there have been some news I missed, but yeah, turns out it's just the bid/ask spread being so wide.

Have been holding MCL for a while now and not looking to exit any time soon, even though I am up >50%. I think this should be a double bagger at least, in the next 6 months.

[smithie6] 05/2/2021 17:29

bobosh13

note that sometimes a share price can drop intentionally 'cause the MM has a sizeable buy order he wants to fill (to pocket his % !!)

& dropping the price to sell can often spook/worry/push a few holders that are considering to sell (phps 'cause they have been considering to sell in order to buy some shares in X or Y & just need a little encouragement !)

although it is really a buy signal !
strange world at times

(a big share buy (especially when the price trend is upwards) is normally taken by most people as a +ve sign)

[speny] 05/2/2021 16:12

Often the drop is just the price moving within the rather wide spread, whereas in reality it has not really moved much.

[smithie6] 05/2/2021 15:48

the actual price being paid to buy keeps going up every day, after the pullback from 60p to 50p.

soon back at 60p imo, & then upwards..

[bobosh13] 05/2/2021 13:30

Anyone know why the huge drop in share price today?

[sbb1x] 03/2/2021 21:34

RIP consumer credit in the UK... https://t.co/2k0hFv4ubi

[smithie6] 03/2/2021 12:15

paying 54-55p to buy

rising back up

[sphere25] 02/2/2021 16:03

Nibbled a few.

Smithie6 is on form :-)

It could also explain why this has been well bid ;-)

As per today's post on TSL, I exited because the risk profile and relative valuation is a completely different proposition to MCL. That is not to say there is no risk here, of course there is!

It's just that the valuation here looks to have priced alot of the risk in, or at least a significantly substantial amount more than something like TSL, which has gone absolutely bonkers rocketship higher on the back of AfterPay.

If that kind of move hadn't happened in AfterPay or MCL was back to anywhere near pre-covid highs, doubt I'd be making the same noises at TSL or any bullish noises here. Yet, it lingers nearer the lows with very little recovery and without pricing in a more bullish environment.

For those reasons as well as the technical supports (edit: stop under 50p to cover downside risk) and well bid (and what now looks like bullish US indices moves), happy to have a go.

All imo
DYOR

[sphere25] 02/2/2021 12:39

It looks well bid this with 10k@50.2p, 100k @51p (don't often see that size on this share) and a few orders ahead of that at 51.2p.

Could be a sign that the price has found a floor at these levels. The technicals are playing out here with the price now bouncing off support levels which acted as previous strong resistance so alot of the moves are chart based here.

Purely a technical play this one, it's been really good for short term trades. Just been watching for a while but today's book looked interesting and worth a mention.

Noted that sellers come in slightly above that resistance of 60p so IF at some point it breached and closed above that, the chart would look very interesting - another possible trade above there.

There has been caution in the updates here recently but the market appears to be looking through that and with some decent director buying, perhaps some form of signal for long termers?

As per previous posts, abit too risky to hold for me. It's just a nice one to nip in and out.

All imo
DYOR

[smithie6] 02/2/2021 10:59

more relevant are the 3 purchases of shares by directors/mgrs once the interims were published

"Dave Belmont, its Company Secretary , purchased 50,258 ordinary shares of 1 pence each in the Company ("Ordinary shares") at a price of 49.743p."
24 Dec. '20

about £25k. not massive but a solid amount. (& the co. secretary is not, I assume, on the wages of the exec. dirs)

"Gary Marshall, Chief Operating Officer of its digital division, Shelby Finance Limited, purchased 100,000 ordinary shares of 1 pence each in the Company ("Ordinary shares") at a price of 44p."

£44k, a fair chunk of cash. a vote of confidence.
can we take it then that the digital division is running on all cylinders ?

"18 December 2020, Sir Nigel Knowles, Senior Independent Director of Morses Club, purchased 20,000 ordinary shares of 1 pence each in the Company ("Ordinary shares") at a price of 45.8079p."

[smithie6] 02/2/2021 10:24

1.3 million new shares

1% of the total number of MCL shares, over 3-4 years, options were awarded in 2017 but didnt vest till January 2021

about 0.2-0.25% per year

as a bonus to directors & managers for staying I guess

0.2-0.25% per year

completely irrelevant imo

zzzzzzzz

------

& note that the last 3 RNSs about share awards are for the same shares, & not 3 separate share awards

[diku] 01/2/2021 22:54

Share awards galore...

[yump] 31/1/2021 17:44

You're not supposed to ask awkward questions of occasional posters ;-)

[opaldouglas] 31/1/2021 17:27

Yump, I was only jesting. The comment made me chuckle 😂.

[yump] 31/1/2021 16:29

Just guesswork imo. Very few posts. Obviously not aware of the updates on door to door and digital is by no means in its infancy - same poster said that earlier in Jan.

[opaldouglas] 31/1/2021 13:03

Scubadiverr - What's your actual forecasts?

[scubadiverr] 29/1/2021 22:07

New business