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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Morses Club Plc LSE:MCL London Ordinary Share GB00BZ6C4F71 ORD GBP0.01
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.0% 78.00 0.00 01:00:00
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
77.60 78.20
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
General Financial 100.23 0.46 0.17 458.8 104
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
- O 0 78.00 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
17/9/202110:09Morses Club Friends and Foes134
01/8/202100:29Morses Club PLC1,805
13/6/201612:10Have I got news for YOU. (Share tip)19
18/3/200223:34Mountcashel worthwhile if TMT recovery holds20

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DateSubject
21/9/2021
09:20
Morses Club Daily Update: Morses Club Plc is listed in the General Financial sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker MCL. The last closing price for Morses Club was 78p.
Morses Club Plc has a 4 week average price of 71.20p and a 12 week average price of 71.20p.
The 1 year high share price is 95p while the 1 year low share price is currently 30.60p.
There are currently 133,632,790 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 46,113 shares. The market capitalisation of Morses Club Plc is £104,233,576.20.
13/8/2021
15:51
smithie6: "New credit issued is 34% higher than budget." where is the rust ??!! ------ 'clearly the corporate action is to reduce the share price', yeah right ! (I think the corporate action will increase the share price & make it easier to borrow additional money to lend out, as the RNS says, if the co. decides to do that)
26/7/2021
21:26
smithie6: well, it looks like the share price was ~120p before the Covid crisis hit in Feb/March 2020 & since then the biggest operator in the sector has left the sector & some others (such as Amigo) have problems with the courts & FCA & have I think suspended all new lending leaving Morse as the no. 1 operator for HCC & as an expanding player in digital lending for HCC & longer term lower % rate loans. so, logic tells me that surely the share price should recover to >120p, no ?
08/6/2021
18:50
smithie6: can't argue much with directors putting their cash in, at the market price. & not free shares just for staying 3 years, which is what happens at a few companies (although !! executive directors do of course have inside information, which us PIs don't have, including whether they are adding or reducing staff numbers, whether sales office is getting lots of enquiries or not, & know about new products being developed etc etc & of course, imo, when the share price is weak the dirs. will quite often say nothing, but phps get a big buy order filled over many weeks, as worried PIs in a news vaccuum get worried & sell a few & when dirs want to sell, or do a cash raise, it is very different, imo, interviews on the internet, a presentation at shareholder conferences. (I think the UK should copy the USA, for some sales the directors have to, I think, announce the planned sale X days/weeks in advance) & imo directors should be limited to sell a maximum of £100k or 1/3rd of their holding in a 12 month period. (they should have built a company with desirable product(s) & stable turnover, so them selling bit by bit should be ok. & gives some protection to PIs against directors ramping up the share price.
13/5/2021
07:41
opaldouglas: Bloody brilliant set of results given the Covid environment, but most importantly some really good forward guidance. Customer satisfaction first and foremost has increased and impairment is down to a record low! As always, MCL focus on quality over quantity and their loan book/assets almost match the current market cap! Outlook clearly guarded regarding h1 which is understandable with recent Covid lockdowns, whilst the outlook is clearly positive with HCC continuing to do the heavy lifting whilst digital commentary is really pleasing and perhaps the most positive since takeover, brilliant stuff. It's pleasing to see acknowledgment of claim management companies and MCL are compliant in investigating all claims (I refer back to my previous commentary which surmises even a tenfold increase in successful claims wouldn't materially affect profitability!). Great to see confirmation of reduced competition and MCL are really leading the pack as they are way ahead of competition in going digital with reduced office space, but perhaps more importantly the digitalisation of the business. Covid has forced their hand and the business has jumped forward at least 5 years in the last 12 months, it's a fabulous place to be. As always I'm clearly bullish and stick by my £1.50 share price target as a minimum. My longer term narrative including inflation and tough times ahead is more prevalent than ever which really opens up all sorts of opportunities for MCL. Best of luck to everyone. OD
29/3/2021
06:16
opaldouglas: Hi all, certainly lots of discussion regarding the merits of different companies. In my view it’s good to look at the sector as a whole but the outlook for MCL is only getting better as we push on with the the Covid recovery and reopening of the wider economy. The lower the price drifts the better the risk vs reward in my view. The real bone of contention seems to be increased impairment figures due to complaints? MCL reported on this and did advise within last years accounts: “Principal Risks and Uncertainties R6 Wider Industry Risk Concerted action by Claims Management Companies (CMCs) can lead to a significant increase in the level of complaints being raised against the Group, whether they are ultimately settled or rejected. A change of approach by the Financial Ombudsman (FOS) resulting in more complaints being upheld without good reason. The increased cost of each FOS claim, whether the complaint is upheld or not. During the year, the Group has seen a noticeable increase in the level of complaints received from CMCs. In many cases, these have been spurious or allegedly sent by individuals who have never been customers or have been sent without the customer’s knowledge or consent. CMCs are now regulated by the FCA and it is hoped that they will act more responsibly in the future. The Group is actively engaging with FOS and the FCA through the sector trade associations. Following the ending of PPI claims, it is clear that CMCs are looking for opportunities to challenge companies” For the sake of ease, I’ll just reiterate my previous comments: 652 upheld complaints in 2020 for MCL, avg HCC loan of £327 @70% interest equals £229. So £149,242.80 extra impairment for 2020. This is really a drop in the ocean and has already been covered by trading statement earlier this month ahead of expectations. Frankly, you could increase this figure 5 fold and it wouldn’t have a marginal effect on profitability. FOS FCA complaints data, it’s readily available online and includes both Morses Club and Provident. See link below: hxxps://www.financial-ombudsman.org.uk/data-insight/half-yearly-complaints-data Provident’s complaints have indeed been going through the roof recently, complaint are up from 3536 in 2020 h1 to 10387 in h2 of which 74/75% are upheld in the customers favour. Provident Complaint Numbers 2020 h2 10387 (upheld 75%) 2020 h1 3536 (upheld 74%) 2019 h2 1930 (upheld 59%) 2019 h1 1131 (upheld 47%) To put this into context Provident’s CCD division had circa 379,000 customers in h1 2020, that’s a complaint rate of 0.93%, this has now risen to circa 2.74% in h2 2020. Morses is really a different story in terms of numbers, complaints have indeed increased, but by a much smaller number. from 53 in h2 2019, to 224 in h1 2020 and finally 794 on 2020 h2. Whilst any increase is of course unwanted, Morses does have a lower upheld rate averaging 64%. See figures below: Morses Complaint Numbers 2020 h2 794 (upheld 63%) 2020 h1 224 (upheld 65%) 2019 h2 53 (upheld 66%) 2019 h1 below 30 To compare the two Morses HCC customer complaints ranges from 0.13% to 0.46% in 2020, Provident ranges from 0.93% to 2.74% in 2020 with a much larger customer base. Provident CCD customers numbers in h1 2020 was 379,000 vs Morses 170,000. This really reinforces my view that Morses does focus on quality over quantity and backs up Morses ethos and customer review data that they are always so keen to reference. Morses had 1018 customer complaints in the whole of 2020, at 64%, that’s 652 complaints upheld. It’s unlikely this will impact FY 2021 results due out 13th May as we’ve already had a beat on expectations from the Morses via latest trading statement. Certainly one for all investors to watch but in my view comparisons with Provident are unwarranted. Additionally a collapse in Provident CCD will only provide a larger customer base for Morses club, as long as they stick to a robust lending criteria. Looking at the recent TU it's really impressive. Based upon previous guidance I’d forecast HCC sales of £97M, so that’s a beat of £13M based upon £109.7. MCL have issued updated throughout 2020 which have been most helpful, I based the last six months on an estimated average 80% of 2020 HCC sales. This gives MCL £51.2M (h1) vs £58.5M in h2. HCC sales of 109.7M extrapolated from historic levels generates revenues of £76.8M, allowing for “normal” impairment charges reduces to £72.4M. Again, base upon historic averages this translates into a PBT of 12.3M. If MCL decide they were perhaps too hasty with initial Covid write down this could increase. Again, digital is the short term drag (long term growth!) with breakeven pushing out to Feb 22 this increases my previous forecast a touch to £5.3M losses, hence a near £7M PBT for MCL for last FY, due in May. What HCC sales do we foresee for the rest of this FY? Trading update would suggest an avg h2 run rate of of 9.75M, clearly this has been rising since h1 and would have peaked higher around the seasonal Christmas period. In this regard I’d rather not second guess too much and suggest MCL sales will revert back to pre covid levels, perhaps next FY year ending Feb 2023 (Paul Smith did suggest MCL were 12 months away from HCC pre covid levels last Autumn). The date is almost incidental in my investment horizon, if it’s this year, next or the one after I have a high degree of certainty sales will revert back as a minimum, this provides me with a good basis to forecast HCC sales will again match FY year ending Feb 20 with sales of 174M and PBT of 20.7M. Clearly a sensible PE should be used for what is not a particular racy company, I’d suggest 10, based upon a PBT of 20.7M, equating to circa £207 Mcap. This is triple current Mcap. Historically MCL was valued between 150p - 200p and with no dilution it’s reasonable in my view that this is achievable again. Re, Dot Digital. It’s been a long slog for MCL to merge this acquisition and clearly it’s been a drag on the share price. Although MCL have pushed back breakeven this is now due within 12 months and in my view this is the game changer for a substantially larger rerating. Dot digital provides a much larger target market 10-12M customers compared with 1.6M in the HCC market. MCL are clearly trying to cross sell products between HCC and Dot digital and are trying to take market share from high street banks and the wider credit market. Paul Smith has already been quoted last year stating that dot Digital will contribute the same amount of profits HCC has historically achieved pre covid within 3 years. This would equate to over £40M PBT for MCL. This would equate to a Mcap of £400M, that’s over 4 times todays Mcap. The above doesn’t account for MCLs loan book which is a net asset even allowing for any adverse impairments, including cash which I have penciled in at 46M end of this FY. For anyone who see inflation looming (I’m firmly in this camp) and the prospect of rate hikes on the horizon, even a few years out. This has the potential to sadly push people into more debt as cost of goods outpaces wage increases and the cost to service debt and mortgages etc will no doubt rise if interest rates rise, this will ultimately affect MCL’s customer base and sub prime lending will no doubt rise drastically. Clearly Morses is not without risk, I’d surmise most these risks are quantifiable and that’s why I’m personally happy with my holding here. Investor sentiment and phycology is a funny old thing and clearly will not change. Until theres a fundamental change of circumstance I'll retain my position, so many "if" and "buts", it's all market noise and to be expected. This is AIM after all. Good luck to all holders (and non holders), takes two to make a market! OD
22/3/2021
12:27
smithie6: PFG & MCL both down by 15% imo (updated , 20%. PFG went from ~250 to ~200p) but the companies are different & also the share price graph MCL had a big run up in price (imo the fall in the MCL share price is over done)
22/3/2021
12:19
smithie6: ....sector has had cases of bad news ...so it's no surprise that the price is weak. but the company RNSs are OK risk/reward, and for me this share with its nett cash & loan book per share then this price looks good imo if one take's a 3-6 month view, while what it does in the coming hours is difficult to say ----- various blue chips are having a bad day today Easyjet, Rolls Royce, IAG as plane travel seems to be getting bad news. & the Turkish lira has dived by 17% & BBVA bank shares have seen a noticeable fall When the economy is re-opened in X weeks/months then mkts should be much happier, & share prices; but if buy "then" & not now then one assumes that share prices will be higher.
05/3/2021
15:50
smithie6: analysis of MCL vs IPF debt vs money lent out + cash held 1) MCl. previous post 86% of MCL's cash lent out was/is its own cash, not borrowed from a bank 2) IPF lent out =533 million cash 116 debts -492 tax debt. -26 payables-receivable. -80 debts + tax debt + pay/receive = 492 + 26 + 80 = 598 million minus cash of 116 = 598- 116 = 482 million. cash minus debt. (excluding money lent out) lent out 533 compare with 482 million nett debt. !! (if recoup all of money lent out (533), well, lets say 85% is recouped (453) & pay off the debts (482 million) the result is 453-482 = -29 million, ie. 29million of debt unpaid !!! (I'm surprised lenders were willing to lend them such a large amount, looks risky) compared with MCL that is terrible. & imo for solidity of accounts it is also terrible. I would not have lent IPF 492 million, even at 9.75%. (the lenders saw the risk, hence the high % rate). 90% of the money that IPF has out on loan is money it has borrowed (@ 9.75% ) !! as I posted before, not good. IPF is in a bad position. it has little in the way of 'real' assets based on these numbers & the cash it has lent out is basically almost all just borrowed money !! That infers risk. SUMMARY MCL is financially much more solid than IPF & also has about 1/2 of its cap. value as nett cash, & is hence a better/more solid investment than IPF imo. (& MCL is reporting a (reduced) profit for 2020, while IPF reported a noticeable loss !) Personally I would not invest in IPF since ~90% of its money out on loan is borrowed money. imo that is a terrible %. & its nett real assets positions looks to be -ve to me, & that is pretty bad imo. Also, the IPF cap. value is 223 million but the EV is 624 million !!. ~2.5 higher, cause of its mountain of debt. At present share buyers are ignoring that debt, & I think they are wrong. At MCL the cap. value is ~100 million & the EV is ~120 million, similar numbers, 'cause the MCL debt is small, :-). Much better situation than at IPF imo. ----- if anyone finds any error in my calcs please let me know, but it looks correct to me
04/3/2021
23:50
opaldouglas: Managed to have a good read of TU, really impressive. Based upon previous guidance I'd forecast HCC sales of £97M, so that's a beat of £13M based upon £109.7. MCL have issued updated throughout 2020 which have been most helpful, I based the last six months on an estimated average 80% of 2020 HCC sales. This gives us £51.2M (h1) vs £58.5M in h2. HCC sales of 109.7M extrapolated from historic levels generates revenues of £76.8M, allowing for "normal" impairment charges reduces to £72.4M. Again, base upon historic averages this translates into a PBT of 12.3M. If MCL decide they were perhaps too hasty with initial Covid write down this could increase. Again, digital is the short term drag (long term growth!) with breakeven pushing out to Feb 22 this increases my previous forecast a touch to £5.3M losses, hence a near £7M PBT for MCL for last FY, due in May. Now for the exciting bit, what HCC sales do we foresee for the rest of this FY? Todays update would suggest an avg h2 run rate of of 9.75M, clearly this has been rising since h1 and would have peaked higher around the seasonal Christmas period. In this regard I'd rather not second guess too much and suggest MCL sales will revert back to pre covid levels, perhaps next FY year ending Feb 2023 (Paul Smith did suggest MCL were 12 months away from HCC pre covid levels last Autumn). The date is almost incidental in my investment horizon, if it's this year, next or the one after I have a high degree of certainty sales will revert back as a minimum, this provides me with a good basis to forecast HCC sales will again match FY year ending Feb 20 with sales of 174M and PBT of 20.7M. Clearly a sensible PE should be used for what is not a particular racy company, I'd suggest 10, based upon a PBT of 20.7M, equating to circa £207 Mcap. This is more than double todays Mcap of £91M and closing price of 74p. Historically MCL was valued between 150p - 200p and with no dilution it's reasonable in my view that this is achievable again. I'm sorry to waffle, but we haven't really come to the exciting bit yet... dot digital. It's been a long slog for MCL to merge this acquisition and clearly it's been a drag on the share price. Although MCL have pushed back breakeven this is now due within 12 months and in my view this is the game changer for a substantially larger rerating. Dot digital provides a much larger target market 10-12M customers compared with 1.6M in the HCC market. MCL are clearly trying to cross sell products between HCC and Dot digital and are trying to take market share from high street banks and the wider credit market. Paul Smith has already been quoted last year stating that dot Digital will contribute the same amount of profits HCC has historically achieved pre covid within 3 years. This would equate to over £40M PBT for MCL. This would equate to a Mcap of £400M, that's over 4 times todays Mcap. The above doesn't account for MCLs loan book which is a net asset even allowing for any adverse impairments, including cash which I have penciled in at 46M end of this FY. One last point, I promise. For anyone who see inflation looming (I'm firmly in this camp) and the prospect of rate hikes on the horizon, even a few years out. This has the potential to sadly push people into more debt as cost of goods outpaces wage increases and the cost to service debt and mortgages etc will no doubt rise if interest rates rise, this will ultimately affect MCL's customer base and sub prime lending will no doubt rise drastically. MCL falls firmly into my value (and growth) portfolio, not many of these about, hence my excitement. Anyway, enough waffle. All in my opinion, I reserve the right to be completely wrong. I do also see further acquisitions in the HCC market whilst small scale lenders struggle to innovate and keep up. Good luck all. OD
03/3/2021
23:43
smithie6: I've had a look thru the IPF numbers, issued today. Too much debt imo. 500-600 million ( & @ 9.75% !! ) wrt the amount out on loan (it is a high % of the amount lent out !) or wrt the nett tangible assets; & that infers risk. (example to highlight my point if you have say 100 million lent out & a debt of say 90 million (costing 10% interest) then clearly there are risks. If you get hit by bad repayment numbers then clearly the impact on the bottom line & the security for having enough cash-assets to cover that 100 million loan are not so good. (although if your APR is 50% or 100% the numbers look better after X months once you collect a lot of that interest & some of the loan principal.) if you lend out 100 million & have a debt of 20 million & not 90 million then clearly the risk factor is much lower. (from the MCL interims there was 55 million lent out & a bank loan of 14 million. (& cash of 6.5 million (& receivables/payables roughly cancelling out; so bank loan minus cash was 14- 6.5 cash = 7.5 million, very low wrt cash lent out of 55 million. (so about 86% of the MCL cash out on loan was shareholder-company cash. nett cash. :-) . not borrowed at 9.7% interest like at IPF. :-) ) (& of course, lending out your own money & not bank money borrowed at 9.75% reduces your interest cost & increases your profit; & in competition might help MCl offer a loan at 50% vs 59.75% from IPF (+ 9.75%) making MCL more competitive :-). ) & MCL has a bank debt capacity of 40 million so if it wanted to an acquisition or rapidly lend out more money it could do it, whereas IPF is already using most of its permitted bank loan (& paying 9.75% interest for it !) Summary the financial stability/risk numbers & nett cash per £ of share for MCL are much much better than those of IPF. :-))
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