Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Morses Club Plc LSE:MCL London Ordinary Share GB00BZ6C4F71 ORD GBP0.01
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -1.40 -2.43% 56.30 230,064 16:35:16
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
55.40 57.20 59.80 55.20 57.60
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
General Financial 133.65 11.45 7.26 7.8 75
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
16:25:11 O 838 59.00 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
21/1/202116:32Morses Club PLC754
13/6/201611:10Have I got news for YOU. (Share tip)19
18/3/200223:34Mountcashel worthwhile if TMT recovery holds20

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Morses Club (MCL) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
2021-01-22 16:25:1259.00838494.42O
2021-01-22 16:24:1058.60400234.40O
2021-01-22 16:22:1359.40105.94O
2021-01-22 16:21:0859.60105.96O
2021-01-22 16:21:0855.40640354.56AT
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Morses Club (MCL) Top Chat Posts

Morses Club Daily Update: Morses Club Plc is listed in the General Financial sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker MCL. The last closing price for Morses Club was 57.70p.
Morses Club Plc has a 4 week average price of 47.70p and a 12 week average price of 30.90p.
The 1 year high share price is 132p while the 1 year low share price is currently 15p.
There are currently 132,530,539 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 536,509 shares. The market capitalisation of Morses Club Plc is £74,614,693.46.
yump: There's been a huge increase in volume over November and December. If the sold shares have moved into recovery investors' hands, that should mean a reasonably stable share price while we all wait for the gradual recovery in business.
yump: I didn’t say punters would sell. Just don’t think there’ll be much buying, as there’s a limited number of pi recovery share buyers - at least judging by advfn, which I probably shouldn’t. Its the old problem of buying low, as there’s no rising share price to give confidence if folk are working on a low level of research We need some new information.
yump: Predicting share price moves with Brexit issues depends on what you want the share to do doesn’t it ? Very obviously in this case. If you want to hop in and out its best to pick a share thats fully priced or speculative and hasn’t just had a big volume increase. Anyway I’m more interested in who was trading that volume of shares a bit lower down, that wasn’t RNSed
opaldouglas: Ptolemy, certainly from the HCC side MCL issue guidance of 21%-26% for impairment. See below from recent results. “HCC gross profits before the Covid-19 adjustment increased to £64.7m (FY19: £62.4m), an increase of 3.7%. The gross profit percent increased to 54.2% from FY19 53.5%. Within the cost of sales, impairment before the Covid-19 adjustment increased from 22.2% to 23.1%, with poorer loan performances identified across newer and more remote customers in the last few months of the year. However, the overall performance still sits comfortably within our guidance range of 21.0% to 26.0%. The increased impairment costs were more than offset by agent commission costs reducing from 24.3% to 22.6%. This was as a result of there being no material territory build subsidies in the year and the full year effect of the phasing out during FY19 of the remaining commission protection arrangements to newer agents.” I don’t think MCL use the local heavies to recoup monies in this day and age and rather target a specific customer base where they can reduce risk. From their presentation last week Paul confirmed they refuse circa 75% of applications. You can look back through updates this year and see collections have been running at high 90's vs last year with the exception of March to June which ranged between 79% - 91%. Otherwise MCL have reported 97%, 93%, 96%. Clearly this is where the additional 5.2M impairment charge comes into play with the vast majority at the start of this financial year. I've based my forecasts on 97% collections for the last 4 months of the year from guidance released so far. Don’t get me wrong MCL have still taken a hit this year with an additional 5.2M of impairment which is a large chunk of change but they can take this on and large digital loses when HCC is throwing so much cash off. So.. unless MCL is providing fraudulent figures, customers in the main are still paying up. I actually think the saving grace here has been the governments furlough scheme, I'd imagine MCL would have been in a much worse place if this safety net had not been available for businesses and staff. In answer to your main question if customers do default they have to go from sub prime lending to underground lending one would have thought and have their credit file destroyed in the process. Only my humble thoughts, OD.
simon gordon: Amigo Loans floated in June 2018 at 275p, valued at £1.3b. Share now 10p, valued at £46.4m. At their peak to 03/19 they did £111m PBT. Since then they've been hit with mis-selling. It is this mass market which MCL seems to be going for. MCL 52p, valued at £68m. Now, if MCL could do £50m from digital and £18m from D2D and do it properly, with no mis-selling, then at a £68m PBT the share would probably be valued more toward a range of 300p to 400p. This is possibly the opportunity, but they must do it professionally, not like Amigo or BrightHouse. That's why I'm a bit perplexed by the new CFO pick. You gotta be squeaky clean! AIMHO DYOR
opaldouglas: The presentation last night was interesting, in relation to share price Paul commented that the share price average £1.55 whilst profits were running at £22M. I have FY results Feb 2022 at 19M PBT based upon 90% of 2019 revenues and digital breaking even. That's without any upside opportunity factored in. Interims out within 2 weeks and a new broker note which will help cement figures, although it's not really required as trading updates have been really clear throughout the year. Looks like MCL are also looking at some acquisitions that are presenting themselves as HCC competitors are really struggling having not digitalised.
74tom: @Sphere, all of those short term challenges are surely in the price already? I expect a solid recovery here once today's update is digested. The major bull point is they have still paid a dividend, that shows they have successfully navigated what has been a very tough period. If the dividend in 2 years time is reinstated to the same level as FY19 (7.8p total), the yield on the current shares purchased will be 17.7%... An interesting fact I've just found on Sharepad; There are a motley crew of 94 AIM listed companies whose share price remains more than 50% lower than they were on 1st Jan 2020. Morses Club is number 39 on this list, with a decline of 67% Of these 94 companies, only 10 paid any sort of dividend in the previous year, from initial research it appears that MCL are the only company to commit to paying a final dividend. That speaks volumes of the companies financial position, and suggests the 67% fall is anomalous and will correct in due course. I'm sure Amati VCT thought this too when they took 6.2%
opaldouglas: Nice to see a little move upwards, I've already put my neck on the block and forecast circa 11.2m PBT for results ending Feb 2020. 2021 results are a lot tougher to estimate, I've penciled in 8.2m PBT but I'm comfortable to just write off this year which only has one qtr remaining in any case! For me it's easier to look ahead into 2022 and beyond. If next year returns to a sense of normality after Covid previous income statements for the last 2 years have ranged between 16.1M - 20.2M, using 16.1M on a modest 7.5 PE would give us valuations of £120M vs todays price of £54M. That's over a 100% upside without including the balance sheet which is robust. I don't actually think we'll learn a huge amount tomorrow then we already know, MCL have provide trading updates throughout Covid so expect steady year for results and future guidance to remain similar to those already announced, as collections rates steady close to last year following the Covid impact over the spring and summer. Value is the main reason why I hold here but my sneaking suspicion is MCL will have a tremendous year in 2021 as lockdowns finish and vaccines are rolled out, I think we'll have a blowout spring and summer as households splurge on holidays entertainment. Paul Smith said as much as he expects sub prime customer numbers to grow from 10m to 12-13m next year, that's a huge opportunity for MCL. Whilst digital continues to be a drag this will hopefully act as a future catalyst for growth as it turns from a current liability to a valuable asset. Although time will tell on that one, I would have liked to see MCL white label their own product but that would have been much more time intensive. All in my opinion and I reserve the right to be wrong! Interested as always if anyone else has worked through figures here? Should be easier tomorrow. OD
opaldouglas: Judging by the numbers and noises from MCL the upside appears extremely attractive. One thing is or sure, the results are going to present amazing value vs current valuation as they run up until 29th Feb 2020 pre covid crash. I can see the reasoning for holding out till the very last moment as they'll be able to get a better gauge of impairment charges. In any case, I think most will look beyond that and into forward guidance for next year. MCL have already guided the market in recent trading updates but clearly the market want to see the figures before deciding. I play MCL as a medium term covid recovery with lending due to increase in the coming years as life resumes to normal and the UK has a post covid splurge on holidays and normality.
opaldouglas: My two pennies worth, delaying results until so late in the day is a concern. As MCL are reporting until Feb 20 I would have thought very little Covid impact in any case. Let's have a bash at numbers. MCL have already confirmed lending of £174,200.00 for the year which would equate to revenue of £121,940.00 (based upon FY2019 figures) this would be an increase of approximately £5M and PBT of circa £20.7M. Clearly a crude measurement of FY19 margins by extrapolating revs (£117M) and a margin of 17%. In any case that's all backwards looking data. Looking ahead to FY2021, we know lending for the first 6 months of the year was £51,199,998 and MCL have confirmed August was running at circa 80% of 2020. So £85.5M/12 @ 80% would bring us in at £11.4M lending on average per month from September, say MCL keep on this path until year end, Feb 2021 that would bring total lending to £96.8M. Again, based upon 70% Margin, revs would come in at a much reduced £84M for FY21. Add in additional Covid impairment charges (we already have comparable figures for the first 6 months from the latest trading statement which is on avg 9.5% up on last year equates to £3.4M. Lets say we stick at 97% collection rates for the rest of the year compared to last FY as reported in latest trading statement, we'd be looking at an additional impairment rate of £239,400 per month in h2 (so 1.4M for h2) and a total of £4.8M for the full year. This would still bring MCL out at a PBT of £13.4M for this current year. I've omitted Shelby digital figures from above as I don't really have the historic knowledge to include these. Taking a stab in the dark it looks like these are going to be a drag until spring 2022 until they hit breakeven. I can see h1 2019 was a loss of £5M, so peaking at £833,333 p/month and reducing by 34.7K p/month over a 24 month period until MCL hit breakeven. So £9.5M hit to 2020 profits and £5.2M hit to 2021 profits before breakeven and profits in 2022. So 2020 PBT would reduce from £20.7 to 11.2M and 2021 would reduce from £13.4M to £8.2M. Clearly the above is full of assumptions and gaping holes so please treat it as such. It's really just a means of allowing me to get my head around things. OD
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