Mondi Share Discussion Threads

[moorsie2] 15/1/2020 08:40

This stock is now massively in play for the industry to consolidate..

I cannot see it remaining independent by the end of 2020. Take out price would also be above 2200 in my evaluation. DYOR of course

[moorsie2] 22/12/2019 08:31

New Morgan Stanley note published last Thursday put a price target of 2025 and a buy recommendation...

[moorsie2] 05/11/2019 08:05

Cyclicals seemed to turn late last week. Markets pricing in the bottom of the cycle and first to reward oversold companies

[knighty0001] 05/11/2019 06:53

Onwards and upwards now?

[moorsie2] 30/10/2019 19:20

Great results by SKG, clearly benefiting from significant down stream integration.

Paper long companies are out of favour at the moment..

[essentialinvestor] 30/10/2019 16:36

SKG outperformance operationally atm.

[moorsie2] 29/10/2019 15:18

SCA and SKG quarterlies out tomorrow...

Will have an impact here for sure but goodness knows in which direction!

[contrarian joe] 21/10/2019 12:18

Agree EI,can do well on bounces, the trend is still down,am waiting for lower prices myself,"might be trying to be to clever",sentiment still poor so markets maybe factoring in to much bad news,wan't to own a good bit of both further out,both quality outfits,luck with your trades.

[essentialinvestor] 21/10/2019 11:30

Joe, Boy is highly volatile.
The CFO's other half bought 30,000 shares at £7.01 a few weeks back.
Longer term it looks a very interesting company to me fwiw,
however it takes a pounding on risk off sentiment days.
Rate the current CEO, however it's a highly cyclical business when all is
said and done.

[contrarian joe] 21/10/2019 10:54

Ok EI,just wanted to put it out there,am aware that your aware should of not highlighted with your EI,luck with Boy,been on my watchlist for 12months,was tempted myself at their lows for a trade.

[essentialinvestor] 21/10/2019 08:51

Hopefully back over £16 soon.

[essentialinvestor] 18/10/2019 13:20

Joe, yes and well aware of how cyclical the sector is.

Yesterday's post was just to highlight the previous peak cycle earnings
and compare those to the latest FY numbers, to guage how the business
has progressed.

I'm not making a strong buy case for Mondi currently,
hold a small amount and when buying something usually mention it
on a stock BB.

In a nutshell, my view is if recession strikes in 2020/21 the sector is expensive
rather than cheap. However, if instead this is a rerun of a 2015/16 slowdown, then
sector prices are more interesting.

I've also bought and traded some Bodycote this week, also highly cyclical.

[contrarian joe] 17/10/2019 20:47

EI,they cut the divi by 64% in the last recession,pofits more than halved leading to a 65/70% share price fall,roce as you alluded to was around 8% which have doubled to today's 17% "a quality outfit no doubt".They bottomed out on a p/e of 6.9 & climbed the recovery on a p/e of 27,it remains to be seen if & how deep & how long the next one is.

[moorsie2] 17/10/2019 18:49

Exactly. I feel that the share price at the moment is overly punishing them for a cycle that they have always managed superbly.

[essentialinvestor] 17/10/2019 18:23

Had a look at some of their earnings statements over the years.

Since 2007 FY (so cyclical peak pre financial crisis) Mondi have more than trebled their EPS
and more than doubled ROCE. Dividend also up over 3x. Pretty impressive
management of their business.

[moorsie2] 17/10/2019 15:42

Anything around today's levels will prove good returns in 12 months. Market always over reacts to this type of news

[essentialinvestor] 17/10/2019 15:31

Added a very small amount.

[essentialinvestor] 17/10/2019 15:24

Might revist the recent trading update morning low @ around 14.84.

[essentialinvestor] 17/10/2019 12:31

Appreciate the reply, hold a small amount.

[moorsie2] 17/10/2019 12:08

Hi EI - we are definitely past peak earnings in the cycle but a lot of this is already baked into the prices. Further linerboard falls announced today will hit sps in the very short term but in the medium term I believe the leaders of these companies will plot good paths to future high profitability. That's why I am dipping back in now

[essentialinvestor] 17/10/2019 11:41

Moorsie, I thought your view was we were past peak cycle earnings for the sector
and it was time for some caution ? - have you now changed your view..

[essentialinvestor] 16/10/2019 17:23

Agree - unless earnings are about to crater.

The share price pre update was beginning to factor in a warning that never came.

Gearing is also modest.

[moorsie2] 16/10/2019 08:20

Significant discount in value here for the highest ROCE company in this sector.

Good value invest at these levels