Mondi Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 10/10/2019 13:15

At least they did not warn.

[justiceforthemany] 10/10/2019 11:47

With key markets soon likely to trough, and with the share underperforming core peers by c20 p.p. year-to-date, we maintain our 12-month Buy rating. Despite the short-term headwinds, we think Mondi remains well positioned longer term with its low-cost asset base and growth investments supporting margins and returns.

3Q EBITDA declined -9% QoQ to �383m (2Q: �423m) a -5% miss vs limited �405m cons. With 4Q outlook implying modestly lower QoQ EBITDA, we trim 2019 EBITDA c1%, but expect investor focus to be on 2020 earnings where we lower EBITDA c7% to �1,560m given softer macro/pricing. Our PT declines -7% to �19.00 (from �20.50).

While Mondi likely to open lower, given recent under performance, we expect to see valuation support & would Buy on weakness.

[justiceforthemany] 10/10/2019 11:18

Full year EPS ~ 178c
EPS H1 96c

Shares trading at just 9x earnings.

[eentweedrie] 10/10/2019 07:54

already priced in IMHO

[justiceforthemany] 10/10/2019 07:52

EBITDA full year should still come in around 1.7Bn Euros matching last year.

UBS forecast 393M EBITDA for Q3 vs actual 383M. 2% miss

[fenners66] 10/10/2019 07:25

Just read the 3rd qtr update - imo does not read well.
Failing to capitalise on the drop in demand for plastic

[essentialinvestor] 04/10/2019 16:37

UBS note appears to anticipate a fall in Q3 earnings and muted Q4 outlook.

[essentialinvestor] 25/9/2019 13:26

I'm just giving a view, no monopoly on calling it right obvs.

[justiceforthemany] 25/9/2019 13:14

This is grossly undervalued IMO.

One could argue every stock is 'cyclical'....

[essentialinvestor] 25/9/2019 09:18

Breaking to a new lower trading range?.

[cordwainer] 24/9/2019 15:52

currently priced as though approx 40% drop in profits expected 2019 vs 2018. although a negative outlook was given for second half, the first half was 'robust' increase vs 2018 which would mean approx 80% drop in eps for 2nd half to justify today's price. If they can manage similar cash flow to first half amidst the capital expenditure programme, i estimate the final divi will be covered at least 1.4 times.
Feel free to disagree.

[eentweedrie] 20/9/2019 15:47

mega bounce coming imho

[riverman77] 28/8/2019 21:18

There's some truth in that. A low PE means profits are expected to fall, in the same way that a high yield is pricing in a dividend cut. In both scenarios you can expect to see a sharp fall in the share price.

[contrarian joe] 28/8/2019 15:02

Yes EI,a man of wise words.

[essentialinvestor] 28/8/2019 14:57

Joe, Charlie Mungar has a good saying on this, ...buying cyclicals on a low PE is a highly efficient way to destroy 50% of your capital.

[contrarian joe] 28/8/2019 14:55

Concur with EI,buying cyclicals at peak cycle on low p/e is a way to lose a lot of money,better to scale in slowly& expect lower prices going forward.Experience has taught me to buy on high p/e ratios on cyclicals as the market anticipates higher earnings going forward.

[essentialinvestor] 28/8/2019 13:49

riverman, 50-70% (peak/trough) for a cyclical is the basis I usually work on-
as a very rough guideline.


In any case had a very small amount. With a view to adding lower.

[essentialinvestor] 26/8/2019 14:22

Slowdown partially priced in, recession no way.

[riverman77] 26/8/2019 13:59

I think 40-50% further downside sounds a bit extreme, unless we have a major catastrophe. Bear in mind it's already down 30% from its previous peak and now trading on a multiple below 10, so I'd argue a slowdown is already priced in. It also has a solid balance sheet with not too much debt so should be able to ride out a recession reasonably well.

[essentialinvestor] 26/8/2019 13:49

Had a listen to the conference call. Understated presentation by and large,
which is usually a solid sign.
The share price is up over 300% since 2011, it's up about 1300% from the financial crisis lows.
Short term a lot depends on
whether the global economy continues to slow. There is an outside possibility
of corporate action. If we are going back in to recession would guesstimate there could be another 40-50% downside from here, just IMV.
Might buy a small amount tomorrow with a view to adding lower, if available.

[justiceforthemany] 20/8/2019 18:08

Decent buy from CEO 5,000 shares @ 1533p
£77K

[justiceforthemany] 07/8/2019 17:14

Shorts down rapidly this week according to short tracker.
Now 0.83%.
Not helping the share price though - ex-dividend next week.

[essentialinvestor] 06/8/2019 21:49

Packaging companies sell on low PE multiples near peak cycle,
It's the same every time.
I hold SKG and (unless bid for) that will be available significantly
lower down as this cycle rolls over.

What is more interesting is the caution expressed by Mondi and not some of the
other sector constituents (yet). It may be their business mix is more susceptible
to early marco weakness.

Mondi is well run and if you can live with the marked cyclicality, worth considering as a long term holding.

If looking for a short term trade, it may be due a better day or two - unless
markets take another plunge.

[justiceforthemany] 06/8/2019 17:14

It is called short sellers manipulating the markets.
Institutions meanwhile are increasing their holdings - see RNS.

P/E now just 9.

[cascudi] 05/8/2019 18:57

Cannot understand this fall