Molten Ventures Share Discussion Threads

[peterrr3] 12/6/2025 15:44:24

Here's some good news for you Steph, Thought Machine, pity they're getting it for almost nix as a seed investor, but may point a few full paying majors their way.https://www.linkedin.com/posts/thought-machine_our-partnership-with-jpmorganchase-has-been-activity-7338923955044425731-9Fwv?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios&rcm=ACoAAEbmZ18B1DqPg111hbtsfVqEYMHzEvjreI4

[riverman77] 12/6/2025 13:45:10

HVPE is more of a traditional private equity fund, but I think they have around 30% in venture type investments. Good track record, 40% discount and seem to be making efforts to reduce the discount through a new capital allocation strategy.

[peterrr3] 12/6/2025 12:27:37

Me too Riverman. Haven't looked at HVPE yet. I do expect a few of GROWs will do well and a few pension funds may be conned into feeding the dogs which may also help with a rosy picture for the short term, but the other funds seem a bit more transparent to me across their portfolios. I will buy back if it drops too much as there's not much risk, just not much reward for long term holders.

[riverman77] 12/6/2025 09:40:36

I sold out yesterday after a decent run - nothing particularly wrong with GROW but hold a few other venture/PE funds which I much prefer - CHRY, AUGM and HVPE. All of these seem to be quite focused on shareholder returns and buybacks to tackle the discount, but GROW seem to be making little effort in this regard with tiny buybacks.

[peterrr3] 12/6/2025 08:49:45

The problem I have Steph is they are economical with the accuracy of valuations. IMO Underperforming assets aren't written down enough and in fact continue to be funded until truly forced to by auditors. Bonuses would have been paid for growth by acquisition, but the subsequent write down of non core means they acquired rubbish, so yes many choices have been poor. I would prefer they take the CHRY route, reduce costs and complete an orderly realisation of the fund. That may kill the artificially created bonus pool and allow the Shareholders to get something back because only management are doing well out of the current arrangement.

[stef25] 12/6/2025 06:25:18

River, peterrr

The hit rate at this share price and NAV/share is poor if we use 2016 as a starting point. As share price a disaster as we are at our issue price. As NAV/share poor. We were 352 NAV/share March 31 2017 and 671 March 31 2025. That is only a 6.5% growth rate per year of NAV/sHar compounded daily since our first results up to yesterday’s. There is not getting around that hard fact. Even if the share price had not detached itself from NAV/share we would have nothing to be proud of. Until NAV/share recovers it’s mojo within the cycle (whatever that is in lenght) this has been a terrible investment since flotation. Even if share price had tracked NAV/share a 6.5% return for such a risky asset is very poor.

The FTSE grew in the same period about 2% per annum with daily compounding. The share price 500 had 11.7% per annum in the same period. Eurostocks index 4.1%.

So an investment in the share price in the same period would have beat our NAV/share rises by some margin. Why such a poor UK performance. Brexit and being ruled by clowns and idiots for most of that period no doubt played a role. Liz Truss was just an extreme example of the very poor quality. No doubt Graphcore would have fared better if supported as a UK/EU campion in a global competition for who controls advanced AI chips. Why would EU help UK AI after Brexit? Tory leaders detached from reality of the global competition unfolding. You either are in the top tier of value creation or you will end up with the service jobs at the lower end.

Our poor performance can mean one of two things.

1) poor stock picking by GROW team and avoidable errors.

2) An undervalued growing portfolio that will fly shortly when market conditions stabilize. . Just is a big dip in the cycle that will correct itself over the next 3 years and revert to post 2016 trend.

For my money I am on 2. Very small percentage of GROW picks have gone under -much better than sector averages. The portfolio is in robust shape and growing sales and staff though the dry years. Dilation limited and slowly being reversed. We will grow back into previous share price highs and beyond. Graphcore was nearly a star and well worth taking a punt on. We have many graphcores in the portfolio and only need one or two of them to shine for a good average.

Good luck all.

[riverman77] 11/6/2025 13:29:10

If the NAV is realistic and the discount this wide then surely they should be spending all the realisation proceeds on buybacks - if the NAV is to be believed then can't see how they could find better investment opportunities than buying their own portfolio at effectively half price. Looks like they are spending most of it on new investments. Prefer the Chrysalis approach who've committed to spend all realisation proceeds on shareholder returns for time being.

[peterrr3] 11/6/2025 10:57:13

50 percent write down on Form3 IMO. Shouldn't have needed that last lifeline. Thought Machine obviously has serious problems with pricing and delivery, despite winning numerous awards. A big client should turn it, they have only delivered small so far. Coachhub I would have thought was very vulnerable to AI competition but don't know enough about it. Revolut really firing, new features coming to make proper use of its license. I think they only cashed in to justify the bonuses.

[apple53] 11/6/2025 10:13:03

Thanks Peter. So do you have a view on what a 'written down' NAV might look like?
At this discount it would seem they should be increasing the buyback, but I haven't done my sums on volumes ie wiggle room.
I will try to update my Revolut model in the next month.

[peterrr3] 11/6/2025 08:01:42

As predicted Revolut is propping up the rest. Form 3 should have also be written down IMO. I thought Thought Machine had turned the corner, obviously not. Safe at these prices though. Expected more increase from ICeye.

Strategic refocus just about says it all. CEO needs to go. Would have had input into most of these investment decisions. Looks only to be there to protect the rest of the boards jobs. Let’s not forget the millions of free options from this stellar performance.

[thunders] 06/6/2025 09:15:07

Result is tomorrow

[peterrr3] 05/6/2025 09:32:37

It is well worthwhile having a look at the SSIT monthly newsletter to appreciate how strongly ICeye is performing this year.

[peterrr3] 25/5/2025 20:15:28

They would have taken a bath on Lyst, nobody seemed to notice.

[stef25] 27/4/2025 05:41:43

It was recorded so you can hear it later.

Nothing new. They skipped all investor sensitive details on the valuations and talked about strategy and the portfolio.

[kelster50] 25/4/2025 16:04:24

Anyone on the call? Any news on this?

[peterrr3] 24/4/2025 10:42:31

Many of the VC funds are on similar discounts. Today was one of the few opportunities for the market to respond and it is hardly a frenzy of buying.I expect a chunk of write downs to core and non core when the accounts are released as Revolut is doing so well but the GROW NAV doesn't move much. Cleverly wording press releases with no drill down won't cut it then. This is the most opaque fund I hold and definitely not as special as they annoyingly brag.

[mallorca 9] 24/4/2025 10:22:52

Looking good ...I think the Market is waking up to this .

[denisthamenis] 24/4/2025 09:29:55

Once again the market is asleep it seems................

[peterrr3] 24/4/2025 07:55:16

Given a chunk of the 4% NAV uplift is due solely to the buyback, pretty flat performance from most of the portfolio unfortunately. A safe bet at these prices but I could have got a 4% return anywhere.

[mallorca 9] 24/4/2025 07:48:30

Excellent Trading update today.
This looks to be undervalued.
With the Share Buyback programme, this should rise quite significantly over time.

[stef25] 15/4/2025 13:40:34

See page 4 chart on VIX and sales price ratios. Q1 2025 as good as most quarters except for boom q2 2020 to q4 2021. Q1 2020 vix off the chart due to covid. We are not there q1 2025 in spite of Trump.

Anyhow Q12025 sales price ratios in good shape.

[cordwainer] 04/4/2025 23:23:19

from Research Tree today:

The level of disclosed Short Interest in GROW has changed materially.

Short Interest has moved from 1.07% on the previous trading day to 0.50% today. That is a movement of -0.57 percentage points.

[lawson27] 01/4/2025 15:57:14

Looks a good entry point here @260 for the recovery, whilst on buyback, GLA

[peterrr3] 28/3/2025 20:38:03

ICEYE service contract with NATO. Got to be worth heaps.https://www.linkedin.com/posts/iceye_iceye-will-provide-satellite-data-to-the-activity-7311357905406992384-EZFa?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios&rcm=ACoAAEbmZ18B1DqPg111hbtsfVqEYMHzEvjreI4

[stef25] 23/3/2025 11:33:59

Currency Movements:

These will be roughly 30m in our favor for the 6 months Sept 30 2024 to March 31 2025. This will completely offset the 30m against us for the period March 31 2024 to September 30 2024.

Dollar Pound was 125 March 31 2024, 134 September 30 2024 and is heading for 129 March 31 2025. The big change to a stronger dollar in the first half (debt tends to be denominated in dollars) did the damage and that is largely reversed.

Euro pound was 116.9 March 31 2024, 119.8 September 30 2024 and 119.0 March 22 2025. The change from 116 to 119 hurt us a Eu valuations are in euros and a weak euro depresses UK total GROW results. The 119.0 is moderately in our favour for the last half.

I can’t see anything that might give us a dip in NAV/share. Multiples of sales to NAV are strengthening again according to PItchbook. Revolut flying.

GROW multipliers applied were 7.8 in March 2022, 7.2 in September 2002, 8.4 in March 2023, 7.4 in September 2023, 6.6 in March 2024, 6.0 in September 2024.

While deeply hidden in our technical notes the multiplier is the biggest determinant of our NAV/share in a period where there are few funding rounds or IPO’s to determine value. Pre crash NAV calculated by multiples was only 1/3rd of portfolio.

Pitchbook data might support a big uplift in multiples. Certainly we have stability or better. Even a modest increase creates a large NAV/share increase for us.