Molten Ventures Share Discussion Threads

[riverman77] 16/1/2025 16:32

The CNBC report is referring to the valuation based on the last equity funding round. GROW appear to have been more prudent and used a much lower valuation - obviously a good thing.

[llef] 16/1/2025 14:56

mmm, cnbc says it was bought at a discount of 29% to its last valuation, which was itself a huge cut to its previous valuation. Was valued at 650m at once stage



The deal values Freetrade at £160 million ($195 million) — a 29% discount to its last valuation.

previous valuation:


extract below
"Freetrade saw its valuation reduced by 65% to £225 million ($280.3 million) from £650 million in 2023, blaming a “different market environment” plagued by higher interest rates and inflation."

[riverman77] 16/1/2025 11:43

30% above book value - and remember that GROW is on a 50% discount which means it is being realised 1.6x above the implied market value. Rather counters some of the posts on here which claim the NAV is fictitous and GROW is actually trading in line with its true NAV!

[buccini] 16/1/2025 10:32

There is now - a 1.6x return on invested capital.

[kelster50] 16/1/2025 09:10

Shouldn't there be a rns on the Freetrade deal with IG? Poor comms

[zangdook] 13/1/2025 23:16

"it is trading at/or below the 'true' NAV"

as long as it's not above it

[pugugly] 13/1/2025 21:16

Citywisdom1> Voice from an ex associate?? Whatever, very relevant points but which could (imo) be applied to many of the listed venture capital funds.

[kelster50] 13/1/2025 16:44

Thanks Citywisdom1, that's an interesting take from a new poster with this as sole post...

[kooba] 13/1/2025 13:11

https://news.sky.com/story/revolut-founder-storonsky-lands-350m-bonanza-from-digital-banking-giant-13288122

[citywisdom1] 13/1/2025 10:29

I think Aiven is still performing OK, but so was Thought Machine...until it wasn't! The blunt truth about this stock is that it really doesn't suit being a listed company, particularly at this stage in the cycle when belief in the valuations is so low. They stuffed a huge amount of money into overpriced assets in 2021/22 - even when their own commentary talked about 'red hot assets'. We all know why they did so: fees! However, the chickens came home to roost and most of those investments will be loss making on realisation. The reason that the stock sits on a massive discount to the NAV is that people don't believe the NAV! Simples. The CEO who oversaw all of this was made to walk the plank at the end of last year, but has been replaced by the CFO. At some stage, they are going to have to 'swallow the frog' and write down the values of all this stuff and the market will realise that far from sitting on a massive discount to the NAV, it is trading at/or below the 'true' NAV.

[peterrr3] 11/1/2025 13:39

Hi Riverman or anyone else, can you point me to a few true performers in core when Revolut is removed from the equation? I would really appreciate a difference of opinion independent of the company or its paid mouthpiece. Looking at big picture economics for the answer to Fintech growth in the portfolio doesn't really doesn't really work in my mind.

[elsa7878] 09/1/2025 19:35

Meanwhile Molten management gouge on fees. INDEED.

Not forgetting they pay tax too when their investments are sold unlike an investment trust so the discount is smaller than it appears.

[riverman77] 09/1/2025 19:30

Unless Revolut is growing revenues at something like 300% it would be difficult for that one company to skew the numbers to that extent. I don't doubt there will be a few dogs in the portfolio, but as mentioned that's always going to be the way with a venture capital fund.

[peterrr3] 09/1/2025 12:47

Not sure where the incentive lies with zero p options, but keeping an open mind.

[kelster50] 09/1/2025 12:01

I had thought management fees had been reduced, and if management are paid or incentivised by stock or options the current share price does not benefit them. I have more of an issue with direction and communications from this team...jury's out

[peterrr3] 09/1/2025 00:47

The numbers are completely skewed by Revolut. Have a look at the likes of Ledger, 25k revenue per employee despite the massive growth in blockchain and wasting millions on a vanity HQ. Most of the others are panned on Glassdoor, with no faith in management capabilities by their employees. Others praise the product, but it turns out there is limited actual demand, like Iceye. Most are going through redundancies and restructuring. Meanwhile Molten management gouge on fees.

[riverman77] 08/1/2025 12:44

Core portfolio saw revenue growth of 70% in 2024 and forecasting 50% growth in 2025. The only reason NAV was not up was because valuation multiples were reduced. As for the write down in Thought Machine - it's worth remembering that this is a ventire capital fund - not all investments are going to work out. As long as you're well diversified and have a decent number of winners then really not a big issue.

[peterrr3] 08/1/2025 10:59

I don't see a lot of growth in the core apart from revolut and invisibility in the rest. Edison didn't flag the write down of Thought Machine, I did.

[melody9999] 08/1/2025 09:10

With a NAV of 646p @300924 (reduced from 662p at 310324 ....at 300p this is on a discount of well over 50%.

Edison's comment was:
Molten’s portfolio valuations remain stable in H125, illustrated by the limited fair value movements of its core holdings that recently completed new funding rounds, as well as Molten’s recent exits (representing aggregate proceeds of c £124m), all of which were completed at or slightly above previous carrying values. While the valuations of listed cloud businesses compressed somewhat between end-March 2024 and end-September 2024, they rebounded visibly after the US election. Moreover, Molten expects its core holdings to deliver weighted average revenue growth of 71% in 2024 and 48% in 2025. Its H125 NAV TR decline of 2.4% came largely from FX headwinds, while the 1.4% constant currency increase in gross portfolio value was driven by the revaluation of Revolut, partly offset by a markdown of Thought Machine.

So at worst we should see NAVs holding up (and possibly increasing) by 310325

Thats a lot of bad news priced in!

[stef25] 17/12/2024 05:05

Thunders

Does the article say the 45bn valuation holding steady on the the further secondaries. ?

[thunders] 16/12/2024 17:08

Backers of Revolut have offloaded just shy of $1bn worth of stock in the neobank in just four months, after it extended its secondary share sale for the second time earlier this month.
The investors, which largely comprise staff, venture capital backers and crowdfunding round participants, have looked to cash in on parts of their holdings, gains on which have been restricted to paper until the sale.
The secondary sale was kicked off after the fintech won its hard-fought-for banking licence, which Revlolut leadership first applied for three years ago, with institutional investors like the state-owned Abu Dhabi investor Mubadala taking up a stake in the business for the first time.

Early venture capital investors have also sold around $500m (£395m) worth of stock as part of the round, according to the Financial Times, meaning the total amount of share sales is likely to surpass $1bn (£791m) by the time it closes.

[stef25] 16/12/2024 12:09

Pound euro holding steady since half year results at 1.20.

Big impact on “profits”; if it moves. A few % results in 10’s of millions of difference.

Other KPI’s that will impact results is movement in multiples of sales to valuation for sector.

Multiple reached a peak for our core portfolio March 2023 of 8.4, then declined to 7.4 sept 23, 6.6 march 24 and 6.0 sept 2024. Multiples have been lower but that was when only 1/3 of core estimates and not last round.

This contraction of multiples offset our organic sales growth. Stability will mean NAV going up and any improvement in sector (seems brewing) will boost core portfolio valuations further.

[melody9999] 16/12/2024 11:10

Better times ahead? Latest valuation was at interims for period end 300924.

Edison 161224. While the valuations of listed cloud businesses compressed somewhat between end-March 2024 and end-September 2024, they rebounded visibly after the US election.

[stef25] 12/12/2024 05:00

Volatility certainly undermines for retail investors like me viewing GROW as a stable repository of value like an index that is long term high growth -so long as it is held long term. Manageable risk for what should in theory be a high (if not the highest) growth sector. A good share for the retirement pot so long as one does not need to draw down in the short term. I’m over concentrated but that is against advice and theory.

[dickiehhh] 11/12/2024 19:37

Why is this share so randomly volatile? Up six percent today on no news? Down the same the last few days. I don't see any other share (of this market cap) behave quite so erratically? Can anyone explain?