Molten Ventures Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 15/5/2024 08:24

Looking much healthier, £4 suddenly doesn't seem unreasonable, if it can clear current level. Likely needs some news to get there, but why not.

[kooba] 11/5/2024 13:34

Does seem odd if SoftBank buy this in house just for the people and not to try to exploit the existing IP and turn try to turn Graphcore around...what do they do with the people ?Shame another potential U.K. trailblazer in a hot sector falls by the wayside. See what materialises.

[peterrr3] 11/5/2024 09:10

Also any deal would require locking down the IP and they got 3 more patents published 4 weeks ago, so 141 in total.

[peterrr3] 11/5/2024 09:07

Graphcore is hiring a talent acquisition lead, so it looks like they maybe keeping this in house rather than integration in another Softbank unit.

[kooba] 11/5/2024 05:31

However, in recent weeks, several EE Times sources have indicated that a deal is about to be closed. Our sources indicate the deal is a possible acqui-hire by SoftBank, with a price tag equating to around $1 million per engineer-or somewhere between $400 million and $500 million total.https://www.eetimes.com/is-graphcore-deal-finally-about-to-close/Acqui-hire..not a term i have come across before ...What happens in acquihire?"Acquihiring" refers to the purchase of a company primarily to recruit its key employees and team members. (The term is sometimes spelled "acqui-hiring" or "acq-hiring" as well.) This is opposed to M&A transactions for other reasons (e.g. increasing market share, owning intellectual property, or refining product strategy).Typically, the purchaser is a larger, more mature company, often supported by a venture capital firm. This business is more interested in your company's talent than in your products and services. The purpose of the acquihire transaction is thus to secure access to your team's specialized knowledge and skill set. After the deal is complete, the purchaser can rapidly scale up its in-house capabilities.

[kooba] 08/5/2024 07:49

BloombergSoftBank Is Said in Talks to Buy Troubled AI Chip Firm GraphcoreOngoing discussions with SoftBank have become more advancedBritish semiconductor startup was once valued at $2.8 billion

[kooba] 08/5/2024 06:54

Fair do's CHRY also under a bit of activist pressure i gather ..same holder on here but not moving at the moment.The bulk of Molten portfolio is getting quite mature , holdings such as Revolut are hardly start ups and there may be some gems in the AI exposure..Like IPO for more life sciences exposure again could see some inflection points this year.Does seem some value in these type of investment funds out there...much of the valuation hit has been taken and hopefully get back to asset growth!Going to revisit CHRY and might pick up a few.

[donald pond] 08/5/2024 06:41

I prefer CHRY to grow based solely on the fact that CHRY is more concentrated and later stage so you can evaluate better what you are getting. But in terms of a long term VC record the Draper team here are the best listed option. I just struggle to value the earlier stage stuff.

[kooba] 08/5/2024 06:17

I am a holder here and am interested in a change of sentiment in these PE type funds..don't own CHRY yet but it's very interesting. Both hold Graphcore hence posted here.Just looking through Hydrogenone where they have just announced small nav uplift and look interesting too. Definitely seems like things are turning the corner and there could be some good entry levels across the listed PE fund sector.

[donald pond] 08/5/2024 06:00

Kooba, if you are interested in CHRY there is a very good Twitter private group focused on it

[kooba] 08/5/2024 05:55

Interesting piece on pre IPO funds."Chrysalis could be a bargain on a 45% discount and will almost certainly rerate sharply if it achieves a material exit. There is still an unnamed – but heavily tipped to be Graphcore – disposal in the works.SBO's discount has widened to 35% in recent weeks, on no news from the company; Graphcore is its ninth-largest holding.'https://citywire.com/investment-trust-insider/news/james-carthew-growth-capital-funds-like-chrysalis-are-bargains/a2441902

[kooba] 03/5/2024 06:56

Thought he came across well..still talking plateauing rather than rising values ..buy plateauing works when you are at a 60% discount to assets.Unclear on whether any share buyback might be on the table short term and my guess would be not with the current cash position but i can see them pledging to return a chunk of future ( forecast) realisation proceeds to a buyback. If there was a windfall monetisation event above and beyond expectation they could look at a return by premium tender as it would be very value accretive even well ahead of where we are now.Worth keeping an eye on the ex cash position valuation of the underlying assets ..the implied discount to portfolio valuation rises quickly as assets convert to cash.

[johnrxx99] 03/5/2024 06:38

Many thanks kooba

[kooba] 02/5/2024 11:15

https://www.edisongroup.com/edison-tv/molten-ventures-executive-interview-3/33551/

[johnrxx99] 02/5/2024 04:22

So assuming a 20% discount 661p per share NAV gives a smiggen over 100%. I'm happy with that :-)

[kooba] 01/5/2024 15:55

Quite good volume again after a little shake earlier the buyers stepped back in so a positive close.

[kooba] 01/5/2024 07:58

Obviously to March 2024..oops.

[kooba] 01/5/2024 07:56

From the Molten trading update to end March 23. The per share figure.NAV per share (unaudited) is expected to be circa 661p (31 March 2023: 780p)

[johnrxx99] 01/5/2024 07:54

So based on Oak's figures:

NAV 1200m
less 20% - 960m
current MV - 525m
possible growth - 83%

It won't happen overnight but with the incoming and growing cash resources I can see that as a minimum and eventually getting back to were it was 3 years ago, all things being equal.

No advice intended and DYOR

[johnrxx99] 01/5/2024 07:27

Thanks kooba. Nice to see his NAV agrees with mine. Did you say asset value was 650'ish? Didn't really understand that.

[kooba] 01/5/2024 06:45

I like this guys work..in the absence of any other up to date analysis worth a read.https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/grow-ing-opportunity

[fluffchucker1] 30/4/2024 16:57

I see that one of their portfolio companies was sold (Endomag). Not much in the way of profit for GROW but some useful return of cash

[kooba] 30/4/2024 14:47

Last edison note was Nov ..likely that they can't produce marketing during an offer period ..ie forward partners deal , but that closed mid March so about time Edison did a through update since we have had a trading update already for the year end.https://www.edisongroup.com/research/nav-down-c-6-in-the-first-half-of-fy24/32914/

[kooba] 30/4/2024 14:40

If they meet the cash disposal targets and maybe see one or two ipo's that should positively impact Nav in the current year then there is certainly more room to narrow on an increasing nav into next year. Anyone seen a forecast of March 2025 nav out of interest..may see if i can get hold of a note.

[spectoacc] 30/4/2024 14:30

I've had 320p in mind for a while, so not far off, but only as a stepping stone - if valuations start rising, and some listings come through, we could be off to the races.

Not expecting a return to £10+ highs, but GROW is lower than 10 years ago - been a lot of progress since then.