Molten Ventures Share Discussion Threads

[purple boots] 22/11/2023 11:39

NAV reduced to 735, but interims seem well received. Bowly.

[johnrxx99] 10/11/2023 15:59

We will have to wait for more confidence in the IT sector I suspect.

[kooba] 10/11/2023 13:33

Often the case would be 12-18 months..but these kind of companies are basically just pooled investment trusts not really operating businesses...i guess they just set the target at the prospective NAV , as shop they are not going to say sell at a discount to assets. If the IPO market continues to recover and some of GROW portfolio companies get back on the listing runway then i guess some excitement returns. For now even though the company seems to be weathering the underlying market challenges it's clear that the equity market is still very wary of PE valuations.

[pugugly] 10/11/2023 12:27

kooba - Thanks - Unusual not giving a timescale. I was under the impression that target prices were usually to be achieved within one year - with the unwritten caveat caveat of everything going to plan.

[kooba] 10/11/2023 11:31

Which is why i pointed out it was shop research , however the answer to your question was in the post.....735p (787p previously), which is also the basis of our new target price.The target price is 735p...they are not specifying that is a i year timescale btw.

[pugugly] 10/11/2023 10:49

Always take brokers' target prices with with a very large sack of salt!
For the record what is the Numis target so can see how accurate or not in a years time!

[kooba] 10/11/2023 10:38

House broker Numis valuation comment.At 269p , the shares are trading on a c 63 %discount to NAV. Whilst it's still a bit of waiting game for now, we believe the discount will become compelling as markets recover. The portfolio has shown resilience through this difficult environment and strong discipline by the management means the portfolio remains well-supported. We assume NAV/sh by YE is flat at 735p (787p previously), which is also the basis of our new target price.

[kooba] 10/11/2023 07:51

63% discount to current NAV per share seems highly cautious especially considering the comments on private equity funding environment. Though IPO a similar facing UK listed also trading at a like discount to recently reported NAV..its a sector thing.As things stabilise and hopefully there is an improvement in the funding environment and further progress to sustainable cash generation in the portfolio i can see a significant rerate to more rational and historic discounts nearer 30%. Any exits at or above book value would also reinforce value and lead to reassessment of market value.Not for the risk averse but could be an opportunity to buy into an asset portfolio offering growth at 40p in the £1.Holder small underwater.

[rambutan2] 02/11/2023 05:36

It's also worth noting that AGT has been upping its stake recently, despite it having such a large field of value to pick from at present.

I've also wondered whether GROW might end up being targeted by one of the larger US VCs. In the past, despite quite a lot of effort, they have struggled to make much headway in Europe, with its borders, red tape, languages, varying regulations etc etc. GROW, with its established platform, might offer a solution of sorts?

[riverman77] 01/11/2023 10:49

Yes and remember that GROW hold these positions alongside very sophisticated venture capital investors with long track records, so they're not going to be buying any old rubbish with zero value! Agree that public equity market valuations can be even more irrational than private investments, as they are more prone to greed/fear and subject to all sorts of momentum effects and distortions.

[rambutan2] 31/10/2023 22:17

Near zero, I don't think so!
Most companies are unlisted, a stock mkt listing is not needed to value them.
What is so great about stock mkt valuations? Mr Mkt tends to the manic, too much up and too much down.
Many tech companies are bought before they've made a profit.
The only price that really matters is the exit price.
And it's exits that GROW really needs, at an uplift, both to restore some confidence and to get some cash and reduce the the debt which it was stupid enough to draw down.
The current huge discount offers a large margin of safety for nav reductions, which i'm sure will come.

[riverman77] 31/10/2023 21:54

They have a good track record of selling positions well above book value so very much doubt the aggregate value is anyway near zero (although there might be some individual positions which are worth zero). The bigger worry is they could be close to running out of cash, and of course the underlying companies are all cash hungry, so suspect they may need to do an equity raise at some point.

[popit] 31/10/2023 21:10

What is the actual value here of all of these unlisted investments?

Nobody really knows because they are not listed on any stock market

Graphcore and all of the other investments do not even make any profits

So it is quite possible that the total actual value here is near to zero

[catabrit] 26/10/2023 06:52

The chart of this thing stinks. I have no idea when it turns, if it ever does. But at such a depressed multiple to book, it is hard to envisage a scenario whereby you lose money if you hold your nerve. Personally I hope management wave the white flag and liquidate but they won’t. I hate that there is no yield but the discount probably compensates for that over time. Let’s see! I nibbled yesterday after holding on and off during the course of the last 12-months and trading my gains (something I seldom do and don’t do that well so not a brag).

[w13ken] 24/10/2023 19:45

Lovely turn of phrase pug :)

[pugugly] 24/10/2023 11:59

Liontrust bought a position - Given their diabolical performance not sure if a plus signal or just 2 drunks holding each other up.

[columbarius] 10/10/2023 19:31

They look over-extended. The estimated 20m cash requirement of the portfolio companies during the current fy is conveniently (suspiciously?) below the 23m cash they had in hand, given last year’s requirement was 138m! Reading between the lines, it’s what the portfolio companies will be getting, not what they will need, and the shortage of cash may lead to failures or dilutive third party funding on poor terms as GROWs negotiating position is weak. They’ve boosted cash by 14m with an asset sale but it’s not much given annual losses at an operational level of about 10m, due mainly to loan interest (fund management revenues just about cover admin costs).
In order to adequately fund their existing portfolio should they:
Take on more debt? (The market clearly doesn’t like the risk associated with the 90m debt they’ve got, due for repayment in September 2025). That would be some gamble.
Realise cash from portfolio companies? (Market currently against them and would they be viewed as fire sales?)
Issue more paper? (Doesn’t seem plausible given the current discount to NAV unless they can dress it up with a takeover or merger).
They’re in a bind and management will need to earn their big bucks over the next 2 years.

[hastings] 25/9/2023 11:24

Anyone have an inkling as to what GROW's stake is in Evonetix please?

[riverman77] 25/9/2023 10:39

Doesn't necessarily tell you anything - there are countless funds and companies that are trading well below their realisable values (even using prudent assumptions). Impossible say which will ultimately receive bids, but can't write off those that haven't so far.

[spectoacc] 25/9/2023 10:21

And the fact that no one is doing that tells you......

[riverman77] 25/9/2023 09:39

Yes at a 70% discount to NAV the margin for error is colossal. Someone could potentially buy GROW at 30% premium to current share price, liquidate the fund at say 20% discount to current valuations, and still see almost 100% upside.

[salpara111] 25/9/2023 09:21

Logic says that someone with deep pockets should buy them and then just liquidate the portfolio for a huge return....assuming the NAV is realistic!

[waterfall city] 23/9/2023 13:02

I would say its a combination of their debt and future portfolio funding requirements make it higher risk.cash is king in this environment in the absence of trade sales.

[cordwainer] 22/9/2023 17:24

Citiwire citing that GROW is on a 70% discount to nav as of yesterday.
If 50% was a bargain, 70% is worrying.

[cordwainer] 14/9/2023 23:46

"Investors Are Warming Up to Private Markets, BlackRock’s Conway Says
Conway’s clients allocate up to 50% to private markets
Asset manager revamped its private asset leadership in May

September 14, 2023 at 10:21 PM GMT+1
BlackRock Inc.’s Edwin Conway says big money clients are snapping up private investments for their portfolios.

Institutional clients are allocating anywhere from 20% to 50% of their portfolios to private markets, the global head of equity private markets told Bloomberg Television Thursday. Interest on the wealth side is “still in its infancy” but there has been a “tremendous amount of demand and growth,” with those clients allocating 2% to 5%..."