Molten Ventures Share Discussion Threads

[w13ken] 24/10/2023 19:45

Lovely turn of phrase pug :)

[pugugly] 24/10/2023 11:59

Liontrust bought a position - Given their diabolical performance not sure if a plus signal or just 2 drunks holding each other up.

[columbarius] 10/10/2023 19:31

They look over-extended. The estimated 20m cash requirement of the portfolio companies during the current fy is conveniently (suspiciously?) below the 23m cash they had in hand, given last year’s requirement was 138m! Reading between the lines, it’s what the portfolio companies will be getting, not what they will need, and the shortage of cash may lead to failures or dilutive third party funding on poor terms as GROWs negotiating position is weak. They’ve boosted cash by 14m with an asset sale but it’s not much given annual losses at an operational level of about 10m, due mainly to loan interest (fund management revenues just about cover admin costs).
In order to adequately fund their existing portfolio should they:
Take on more debt? (The market clearly doesn’t like the risk associated with the 90m debt they’ve got, due for repayment in September 2025). That would be some gamble.
Realise cash from portfolio companies? (Market currently against them and would they be viewed as fire sales?)
Issue more paper? (Doesn’t seem plausible given the current discount to NAV unless they can dress it up with a takeover or merger).
They’re in a bind and management will need to earn their big bucks over the next 2 years.

[hastings] 25/9/2023 11:24

Anyone have an inkling as to what GROW's stake is in Evonetix please?

[riverman77] 25/9/2023 10:39

Doesn't necessarily tell you anything - there are countless funds and companies that are trading well below their realisable values (even using prudent assumptions). Impossible say which will ultimately receive bids, but can't write off those that haven't so far.

[spectoacc] 25/9/2023 10:21

And the fact that no one is doing that tells you......

[riverman77] 25/9/2023 09:39

Yes at a 70% discount to NAV the margin for error is colossal. Someone could potentially buy GROW at 30% premium to current share price, liquidate the fund at say 20% discount to current valuations, and still see almost 100% upside.

[salpara111] 25/9/2023 09:21

Logic says that someone with deep pockets should buy them and then just liquidate the portfolio for a huge return....assuming the NAV is realistic!

[waterfall city] 23/9/2023 13:02

I would say its a combination of their debt and future portfolio funding requirements make it higher risk.cash is king in this environment in the absence of trade sales.

[cordwainer] 22/9/2023 17:24

Citiwire citing that GROW is on a 70% discount to nav as of yesterday.
If 50% was a bargain, 70% is worrying.

[cordwainer] 14/9/2023 23:46

"Investors Are Warming Up to Private Markets, BlackRock’s Conway Says
Conway’s clients allocate up to 50% to private markets
Asset manager revamped its private asset leadership in May

September 14, 2023 at 10:21 PM GMT+1
BlackRock Inc.’s Edwin Conway says big money clients are snapping up private investments for their portfolios.

Institutional clients are allocating anywhere from 20% to 50% of their portfolios to private markets, the global head of equity private markets told Bloomberg Television Thursday. Interest on the wealth side is “still in its infancy” but there has been a “tremendous amount of demand and growth,” with those clients allocating 2% to 5%..."

[cousinit] 31/8/2023 13:38

AVI certainly try to avoid value traps these days. Not sure if they are part of it but definitely changes at PEY since they appeared on the register (although 10% there rather than 4.5% here)

[kelster50] 31/8/2023 10:15

Edit '...' rather than (?). It wasn't a question but a comment - although thoughts are welcome after yesterdays TR1

[kelster50] 31/8/2023 10:07

Interesting to see that AVI are increasing their position as they usually invest in stock where the nav is undervalued...

[johnrxx99] 25/8/2023 06:35

Ups and downs are so frustrating at the moment. Make a few bob one day then loose it the next.

I've given up thinking about how long VC and GROW in particular will take to settle. I wish 360p was my break even, I'm about 500p. Hey Ho.

[cordwainer] 24/8/2023 14:58

picked up a few more at 221p earlier this week but probably need about 360p to break even overall.
the market's flip-flopping daily anxiety over interest rates surely has to get more settled eventually ..?
and even if rates are imminently plateauing, how long for our pe and vc corner of the market to narrow the discounts to 20-30% ? at best maybe a few more months with a macroeconomic 'soft landing' or maybe 2-3 years otherwise.
just one of those useless posts from a frustrated holder, sorry.

[mwj1959] 22/8/2023 14:39

Molten Ventures had just over 23m shares according to 2022 Annual Report.

[mallorca 9] 22/8/2023 08:56

Can anybody tell me how many shares Molten have in Trustpilot ?

[cordwainer] 31/7/2023 08:53

Starting to see more positive vibes in the PE space regarding valuations and IPO prospects. My hopes for a rerating are brought forward slightly.

[johnrxx99] 28/7/2023 08:46

Thanks riverman77

[riverman77] 28/7/2023 08:07

Limited Partner is the widely used term for a third party investor in a private equity fund.

[johnrxx99] 28/7/2023 07:00

I believe LP is leading participant but could be wrong, not being a VC person. It is bunging in 55.5% of the cash is mt reading of what they are doing.

As regards NAV, I assume the companies they are putting into the fund have an agreed NAV greater than on GROW's books by GDP2.5m. So, again I assume, they take back cash to that value but still have 55.5% of the fund.

I hope someone else who is more versed in VC jargon than I can help us.

[cordwainer] 28/7/2023 06:30

Someone help me again with what exactly the 55.5% "LP" means.. lead partner? lead participant? long play vinyl record? lost poodle?
I'm also too stupid too understand exactly how they are "generating immediate cash proceeds of around GBP2.5m to Molten" just by assigning existing portfolio investments into a fund. Something to do with the strategic partner ?
This new sideline in managed funds seems to echo the long-standing business model of another holding of mine Mercia Asset Mgmt (MERC).

[cordwainer] 24/7/2023 19:36

.. as in H2-23 = 2% NAV slip vs 65% discount ?



Factoring in the limited cash along with average peer group discounts a conservative near term price target here without significant catalysts should be around £3.50 imho.
Edison is arguing a further 12% discount is embedded into Molten's valuations but I would prefer to assume that is cancelled out by costs inflation. And if they were to use any of the 150m credit facility that's a 10% interest rate atm.

[cousinit] 24/7/2023 10:39

It was more that some of the selling pressure recently was based on Mid 250 index being a UK domestic proxy, which isn't really the case for a number of inv co's in the index (including GROW). My base case here is more of a muddle through where the NAV slips by less than is being implied by the market