Molten Ventures Share Discussion Threads

[cordwainer] 22/9/2023 17:24

Citiwire citing that GROW is on a 70% discount to nav as of yesterday.
If 50% was a bargain, 70% is worrying.

[cordwainer] 14/9/2023 23:46

"Investors Are Warming Up to Private Markets, BlackRock’s Conway Says
Conway’s clients allocate up to 50% to private markets
Asset manager revamped its private asset leadership in May

September 14, 2023 at 10:21 PM GMT+1
BlackRock Inc.’s Edwin Conway says big money clients are snapping up private investments for their portfolios.

Institutional clients are allocating anywhere from 20% to 50% of their portfolios to private markets, the global head of equity private markets told Bloomberg Television Thursday. Interest on the wealth side is “still in its infancy” but there has been a “tremendous amount of demand and growth,” with those clients allocating 2% to 5%..."

[cousinit] 31/8/2023 13:38

AVI certainly try to avoid value traps these days. Not sure if they are part of it but definitely changes at PEY since they appeared on the register (although 10% there rather than 4.5% here)

[kelster50] 31/8/2023 10:15

Edit '...' rather than (?). It wasn't a question but a comment - although thoughts are welcome after yesterdays TR1

[kelster50] 31/8/2023 10:07

Interesting to see that AVI are increasing their position as they usually invest in stock where the nav is undervalued...

[johnrxx99] 25/8/2023 06:35

Ups and downs are so frustrating at the moment. Make a few bob one day then loose it the next.

I've given up thinking about how long VC and GROW in particular will take to settle. I wish 360p was my break even, I'm about 500p. Hey Ho.

[cordwainer] 24/8/2023 14:58

picked up a few more at 221p earlier this week but probably need about 360p to break even overall.
the market's flip-flopping daily anxiety over interest rates surely has to get more settled eventually ..?
and even if rates are imminently plateauing, how long for our pe and vc corner of the market to narrow the discounts to 20-30% ? at best maybe a few more months with a macroeconomic 'soft landing' or maybe 2-3 years otherwise.
just one of those useless posts from a frustrated holder, sorry.

[mwj1959] 22/8/2023 14:39

Molten Ventures had just over 23m shares according to 2022 Annual Report.

[mallorca 9] 22/8/2023 08:56

Can anybody tell me how many shares Molten have in Trustpilot ?

[cordwainer] 31/7/2023 08:53

Starting to see more positive vibes in the PE space regarding valuations and IPO prospects. My hopes for a rerating are brought forward slightly.

[johnrxx99] 28/7/2023 08:46

Thanks riverman77

[riverman77] 28/7/2023 08:07

Limited Partner is the widely used term for a third party investor in a private equity fund.

[johnrxx99] 28/7/2023 07:00

I believe LP is leading participant but could be wrong, not being a VC person. It is bunging in 55.5% of the cash is mt reading of what they are doing.

As regards NAV, I assume the companies they are putting into the fund have an agreed NAV greater than on GROW's books by GDP2.5m. So, again I assume, they take back cash to that value but still have 55.5% of the fund.

I hope someone else who is more versed in VC jargon than I can help us.

[cordwainer] 28/7/2023 06:30

Someone help me again with what exactly the 55.5% "LP" means.. lead partner? lead participant? long play vinyl record? lost poodle?
I'm also too stupid too understand exactly how they are "generating immediate cash proceeds of around GBP2.5m to Molten" just by assigning existing portfolio investments into a fund. Something to do with the strategic partner ?
This new sideline in managed funds seems to echo the long-standing business model of another holding of mine Mercia Asset Mgmt (MERC).

[cordwainer] 24/7/2023 19:36

.. as in H2-23 = 2% NAV slip vs 65% discount ?



Factoring in the limited cash along with average peer group discounts a conservative near term price target here without significant catalysts should be around £3.50 imho.
Edison is arguing a further 12% discount is embedded into Molten's valuations but I would prefer to assume that is cancelled out by costs inflation. And if they were to use any of the 150m credit facility that's a 10% interest rate atm.

[cousinit] 24/7/2023 10:39

It was more that some of the selling pressure recently was based on Mid 250 index being a UK domestic proxy, which isn't really the case for a number of inv co's in the index (including GROW). My base case here is more of a muddle through where the NAV slips by less than is being implied by the market

[johnrxx99] 22/7/2023 08:35

So, it's a time to wait for the collapsed bubble to reinflate, what, 6 months? The US will lead, the UK will follow.

[cousinit] 21/7/2023 10:22

I'm seeing more comments that US investors were shorting the Mid 250 in June as a domestic UK proxy for the sticky inflation/higher rates pain trade.

Suggests that larger trusts in the index that aren't particularly UK focused can easily get sucked in. A number gapped down in late June so looks like there isn't much depth with MMs despite market caps either side of £1bn

[cordwainer] 10/7/2023 17:44

re pref shares as mentioned by riverman, is it known / knowable whether such prefs have the additional features of being cumulative or convertible ?

[steve3sandal] 10/7/2023 13:33

Trying to understand what went wrong here. They did make good profits on a number of exits in the past few years. Has it all been reinvested and rolled over at higher valuations which have melted away? Why would you borrow to invest in early stage ventures?

[waterfall city] 10/7/2023 12:52

I think the large discount here is because they may need to raise fresh capital in the future as they are already using their bank facility.Sounds like the bulk of their portfolio is OK finance wise for 18 months as at March 23. A lot will depend on how long interest rates remain high.

[johnrxx99] 26/6/2023 08:44

Unrelenting springs to mind.

[descartes244238] 20/6/2023 19:47

When Mr Arrogance renamed it after himself, he should have called it Mouldy Ventures. Share code WILT. Price heading for the £2 level. Sold and good riddance. Fund has no growth and no idea

[albert arthur] 16/6/2023 07:57

Added this today, part of a quantitative momentum algorithm... results out, no surprises... expecting this to ride to the EMA200 in the next 4 weeks or so..

[riverman77] 15/6/2023 09:04

I think they'd already guided the NAV would be around that level in earlier trading udpate so no surprises there. Given how frothy valuations became this isn't too bad and hopefully now reset at a more realistic level.
Worth noting that the downside protection helped cushion the falls (I believe through some sort of preference share arrangement which means GROW would be the first to be repaid in the event of a company getting into difficulty). Underlying portfolio seems to be doing ok given strong revenue growth and decent cash runway, while recent funding rounds have been in line with valuations.
Clearly some sort of discount is justified but 60% seems excessive. Worth keeping in mind that if the discount narrows from current 60% to a more reasonable 40% then that would translate to a 50% return (a bit of a mathematical quirk at play there).