Micro Focus Share Discussion Threads

[jw330] 12/2/2021 07:39

I think the most important thing is to assess how reliable and recurring the cash flow is. Are they going to grow the cash flow in the coming months and years? Are they going to be able service the debt with the cash flow coming in? The daily gyrations of share price means diddly squat really.

[purchaseatthetop] 12/2/2021 07:29

New day new positivity. The volatility in the market is astounding. Does anybody remember when share values sort of progressed in an orderly fashion?
The only sensible share in my portfolio is AGL as that simply rises every day without fail.
What will happen today? Down to 420p or up to 490p? I have absolutely no idea. All my previous decades experience means zilch any more. So, follow the cash flow. When in doubt the cash creates value in the end.

[gurunostradamus] 11/2/2021 20:31

Purchase I think it’s unfair to call him idiot boy, stupid boy is more appropriate like Pike!

[rochdae] 11/2/2021 20:09

What do you mean growing ... fcf from 500 million to 700 million ... that is growth otherwise how do you define it?

[purchaseatthetop] 11/2/2021 19:41

Us has recovered should be good tomorrow

[markbelluk] 11/2/2021 18:34

>I strongly recommend that you do not buy any MCRO shares with that view but thanks for your input.

I second that but only on the basis that I selfishly hope you, and your "lookback" algorithm, never post on here again

[purchaseatthetop] 11/2/2021 18:25

Livingstone...I fully respect your opinion except that looking at your one previous post it shows that you are taking a "looking back" view of an organisation undergoing a transformation.
It pleases me to see you doing that. It means that this is exactly what the brokers are doing.
I however, rightly or wrongly, have bought into the 3 year plan for transform and the RNS shows that they clearly think it is on course. I used to be in change management so I know just how difficult this is.

I strongly recommend that you do not buy any MCRO shares with that view but thanks for your input.

[livingstone20] 11/2/2021 18:07

This company has no track record of ‘growing’; by anything other than acquisition and can’t do anymore of that with over 4bn of debt. A reduction in rate of decline in revenues from 11% to 9% is a very long way from a turnaround. Just remember it has never grown before so many will take much convincing that it will suddenly see stellar sales. Much revenue has come from aggressive legacy licence management which doesn’t give a great relationship platform for selling. This is key test for me as a shrinking cash flow will not merit some of the fanciful prices being floated on here.

[purchaseatthetop] 11/2/2021 17:50

Boy investor...I asked earlier if perhaps you should not be investing. Now I know you should not. Idiot boy.

[rochdae] 11/2/2021 17:46

Yes, it's the same old market myths. Income funds will pile in with the divi, shorters and their antics, market manipulation ... I can go on and on and have heard it all in the last 35 years. Retraces to 400, no 300, stops and leverage, and the embittered who just like to wind people up and who can't make a turn in an incredibly difficult world...

But in the end, I just buy the cash. That's all the market does. It's called yield.

With micro you are now buying earnings cheaply. Their target of fcf of 700 million means that you can buy that cash and get 7 billion in just 10 years. That's 5x the current share price.

It doesn't matter what the market makers do or what the macro environment does.

The concern was that mcro was a failing company. Recent news shows quite the opposite. So it has to rerate accordingly.

[scepticalinvestor] 11/2/2021 17:04

that 525k is the UT, plank!

[boyinvestor] 11/2/2021 17:03

@purchase - you got to start somewhere right? heh
something fishy is going on. thats just my instint.
I dont have data to back it up but you know when you just feel that some forces are working against the share price.

and what do you know... 500k shares bought at a discount after hours....

[purchaseatthetop] 11/2/2021 17:03

thanks Dr Knowledge....we are of the same opinion. Gradually accumulate more and simply wait. The biggest error of investing (and I did this for the first 5 years until L learned) is that if you discover value, then unless the facts change then that value does not go away. I kept changing my investments and it was stressful and costly.

I look forward at cashflows here and everything points to incredible value but maybe only after another 6 months and a further revenue/margin/debt reduction update.
I am 90% certain that these will come. So I will relax.

[dr knowledge] 11/2/2021 16:46

purchaseatthetop - with cash generation being what it is (and the company's bullish statement on future plans), you are not wrong. The market is also forward thinking, so sit back & relax - time will tell. ;-) Only real danger I can see near future is something like this (already happened with my largest holding ENT, but thankfully that one was rejected outright)..............

www.citywire.co.uk/funds-insider/news/fund-managers-celebrate-wave-of-bids-for-cheap-uk-stocks/a1463674?re=82346&ea=30226&utm_source=BulkEmail_FundsInsider+Afternoon&utm_medium=BulkEmail_FundsInsider+Afternoon&utm_campaign=BulkEmail_FundsInsider+Afternoon

[ttny2004] 11/2/2021 16:42

That's how I read it as well. Dividend every 6 months.

[chrisdr2] 11/2/2021 16:42

Any observations re the huge trade after close?

[purchaseatthetop] 11/2/2021 16:34

planit2....I agree with you and I am also a major holder. The psychology of the market is to assume that past failures will repeat in the future.

If its goes to 400p thats great. I looked very much more about what the RNS said about continual improvement of revenues and margins in H2 2020 and 2021. It was almost a message saying that you have seen nothing yet.

I do not give a toss about my % profit (my average cost is 312p) I look at 3 years time and how many more shares I will have.

Anyway...all IMO only and may be wrong. What the hell.

[planit2] 11/2/2021 16:26

This could go under 400 within a couple of weeks.

MCRO dropped for 4 months after the July disclosure of the $1bn writedown, it was the margin increase news that stopped the decline.

And I am not deramping, I am a holder like a lot of you.

[truthandnumbers] 11/2/2021 15:59

Reinstating the dividend hasn't had the big effect on the shareprice I was expecting. Maybe the writedown has spooked the market. Retrace to a support line should be somewhere around the 460p level. 15c dividend is 11p and about 2.3% at this price. Anything below is a buy opportunity imo.

[planit2] 11/2/2021 14:54

I think they intend to do 15c every half so looking forwards you can double that.

Looking back the last year was 2.3%

[purchaseatthetop] 11/2/2021 14:54

boyinvestor....are you absolutely sure you should be investing? In any case it is the profit of the company for a year divided by the share in issue. So the share is about $6.50 and each is earning $1.70ish and we are getting a dividend of $0.15 out of that profit. The dividend should be around $0.37 total for year

[boyinvestor] 11/2/2021 14:35

Jefferies cut its earning per share from $1.73 to $1.68 for 2021.
Someone explain this to me in laymans term.