Metro Bank Share Discussion Threads

[vlad the impaler] 12/4/2024 12:51

For me I always call it a bet. Its pretty clear to others, it's never a sure thing lol

[vlad the impaler] 12/4/2024 12:50

Some call trading and investing, betting'. To be fair its true. A bet on an unknown outcome given an analysis. Many don't seem to like that terminology though

[vlad the impaler] 12/4/2024 12:48

Tbh I class 12 months as trading

Anything up to a year , day to 365

You are right. Long windows re investing windows, subjective time frame tbf, is a nut job

Bank of England can hardly get a quarter right, the IMF etc, and all the resources they have at hand too

[arborfieldinvestor] 12/4/2024 12:18

I usually view making my investments with a 12 month view, day trading is way too hard. It's impossible to look beyond that with any certainly due to economic uncertainties. These days with the geopolitical situation even 12 months is challenging!

[vlad the impaler] 12/4/2024 12:13

Even targeting 160s, I wouldn't call it an investment though. Would you?

Investment as in say, forever in an ISA with 20 yrers to retirement 😂

It's more of a trade that just may take a little while

Probably be a window in that time, that fills it within 2 weeks if comes

[vlad the impaler] 12/4/2024 12:11

Bacal is covered. I'm sure assets are covering him regardless , in the deal. Pretty much risk free ownership for him I would think

See where it goes

[vlad the impaler] 12/4/2024 12:09

Definitely it gets delisted via private buyout or absorbed in some way

Just have to hope they don't find a way to strip the value prior

[arborfieldinvestor] 12/4/2024 12:08

To be honest I expect a take over at some point. They are letting the hard work of cost cutting fall to someone else. For someone like Nationwide paying £500 million for £8 billion of mortgages plus current accounts is an absolute bargain.

[vlad the impaler] 12/4/2024 12:07

Yes another target is always viable once first target reached. Be an interesting read around 80s

[vlad the impaler] 12/4/2024 12:06

I will be reducing the number of shares I hold if the price keeps rising....

Well a statement thats rare on forums. A statement that suggests you know what it's all about

[arborfieldinvestor] 12/4/2024 12:06

The 80 is in the middle of my expected range. I hope it hits it at the next results in 6 months when the first report after the cost reduction will be know.

[vlad the impaler] 12/4/2024 12:05

Deposits are costly today

In essence its the bank borrowing from depositors at X interst rate

Profits were up for them all but must be noted, default season had been delayed through various help schemes as well

Anyway, I just look for a fast rise and out


Challenger banks are no place for linger term investing

[arborfieldinvestor] 12/4/2024 12:04

I checked (as I worked out how to do it in Degiro) and I have made 21 buys since beginning of March. As mentioned earlier I will be reducing the number of shares I hold if the price keeps rising although I am hoping the value of the shares I retain will be higher than they are now!! Every investors dream!! Maybe I am wrong and I will learn a hard lesson!

[vlad the impaler] 12/4/2024 12:03

"he last results showed at the end of the year deposits were increasing, revenues up significantly on previous years. The current price still reflects the expected failure of the bank which, I personally, and I could be wrong, is unlikely to happen in the near future."

Fair point. I'd not trade it if thought failure was imminent tbf

Let's assume that .market takes to it. Probably a case of then applying realise to targets

For now I think 80s would be a great achievement. Also for now, hard ro see it doing any better

[arborfieldinvestor] 12/4/2024 12:00

There are certainly some level of risk, especially with the smaller banks. MTRO had real risks of going under last year due to regularity requirements, hence the share price being hammered. Whilst that risk has not totally disappeared it has now reduced significantly due to the rescue package. The last results showed at the end of the year deposits were increasing, revenues up significantly on previous years. The current price still reflects the expected failure of the bank which, I personally, and I could be wrong, is unlikely to happen in the near future.

[vlad the impaler] 12/4/2024 11:59

37, 40, 41

Precise prices that must be taken out..just don't want to see a sell call at any

Get that, free run to 80s. Lower prices not important

I'm in high 33s. Will move to breakeven exit order as approach 37s

Market can decide after that

[vlad the impaler] 12/4/2024 11:56

Best to just let market decide. No point fighting market

If it can both break and get support at 40~41, then go with the flow

[vlad the impaler] 12/4/2024 11:54

I get what you are saying, but it's hard to ignore outlooks for solvent, profitable banks, and think metro can do better or buck that Outlook

Right now its a bit of a basket case, and also on the regulators financial crimes wishlist

Its also a challenger bank really and outlook for those globally is awful

Coild look at how Bacal can make here but unfortunately he can make regardless of share price or being listed at all

It can't compete and lost applications to give them room on mrel etc to try compete

Right now, their deposit holdings are costly too

[vlad the impaler] 12/4/2024 11:50

Market cap was circa 70 million. That waa markets valuation of it prior (allowing for extra print) . Market didn't rerate it to today's level

[arborfieldinvestor] 12/4/2024 11:45

I think the market cap is pretty near the bottom of where it has ever been. The dilution had a big impact on the number of shares but the value of each share plummeted so the nett market cap was lowered. MTRO made underlying loss of £16 million last year. With a £80 million cost saving that is £64 million future profit not taking into account growth. Based on the industry PE averages that should be a market cap of £512 to £768 million hence my 70p-100p target. This totally ignores the underlying value of the existing customers (mortgage book etc).

[vlad the impaler] 12/4/2024 11:18

Current market cap is way above the pre dilution cap. Always been an issue historically in markets

Best just to play the game for now

[arborfieldinvestor] 11/4/2024 23:22

The current market cap is £230 million. We have been told that the £50 million cost savings were completed end of March. Based on the low end bank PE ratio of 8 to 1 that alone should represent a £400 million valuation increase, assuming they maintain the business. Another £30 million cost reduction by mid year adds another £240 million. This current valuation is crazy.

[imjustdandy] 11/4/2024 15:04

Looking v good