Melrose Industries Share Discussion Threads

[meanwhile] 30/3/2018 15:38

Yeh, whatever.

[brexitplus] 30/3/2018 14:33

Losos, happily I did win but also passed on my prize to Nigel Farage.

Regarding the picture of Meanwhile’s wallet, I have no need of it. It doesn’t look a particularly nice wallet and I do worry that it’s contents are forgeries.

[brexitplus] 30/3/2018 13:29

Meanwhile, I hate to say this but you appear to be transforming into a minerve Mark 2; ie. without the swearing. You appear to have little respect for others’ opinions.

A lot of your criticsm of Melrose is that they didn’t let YOU have another rights issue. Have you thought that they may have taken advice and been told by institutions that they wouldn’t support such a large amount. Or possibly they ascertained that the best way to get GKN, which they have, I understand, been after for 10 years was to offer shares and cash.

It strikes me that, not being a fly on the wall of the Melrose boardroom, we are predicting what will happen. Just as we didn’t know what was happening during the bid, we have even less idea what Melrose intend to do over the next five years.

[losos] 30/3/2018 13:06

yertiz - "This year is shaping up to be a great one for MRO (and GKN)"

Agree, if the government keep their noses out haha. Some MP was again talking about MRO only holding for three years (In itself wrong) but I have a gut feeling that due to the size of this aquisition MRO will hold some parts for five or more years.

gettingrichslow - Thanks for doing all the judging.
Having dinner with Minerve err no I think I'd pass on that, but I didn't win, phew what a relief haha.

[gettingrichslow] 30/3/2018 12:50

Meanwhile,

"40% gain from Jan 18" - yes, but as you know it's all about which time period one looks at. GKN are only 12% higher now, after the 40% gain than they were in Mar 14...how does that fit within your 'general principles of investment for profit'?

"This one's different" - as I've pointed out before you've said this before when you were panicking in the lead up to Elster. I even posted your own words on this forum to prove it but you didn't respond...

You and Minerve also seem to me to be the ones bragging, talking about 'very large holdings' and buying cars with interim dividends etc. You have no idea how your holding compares to mine or B+'s or others, and you really shouldn't assume too much.

So please let's have an answer to the "12% gain" and "this one's different" points above and also let us know when you're selling up because as you've said before the shares in MRO will now be "going nowhere fast" but you like to "optimise gains".

[brexitplus] 30/3/2018 12:19

You can tell him yourself.

[minerve] 30/3/2018 12:16

brexitplus

He should be used to bad language seeing as he is a working man's man and can always be found down the local having a pint. At least, he would like you to think that he is. His real friends are hedge-fund owners and other financiers. The types who don't want any EU interference in London, and they use much worse language. ;)

[yertiz] 30/3/2018 12:16

So you are going to sell up next week, Meanwhile? Judging by your posts, you are in to Melrose for far more than my pocketmoney, and while my investment in MRO is nobody's business but my own - so I'm not going there - , I do think you are either incredibly foolish or utterly inspired to have all your investment tied up in one company. (Hope it was inspirational!).

This year is shaping up to be a great one for MRO (and GKN), once Ergotron and Nortek are offloaded (for over $7 bn?), I can see a chunk of debt written off and some shareholder returns being made, with the share price moving ever closer to the £3 mark through efficiencies in GKN divisions and maybe the sale of Powder Metallurgy by year end.

Buy, IMHO

[brexitplus] 30/3/2018 12:06

Minerve

Has Nigel Farage been in touch about dinner. He’s dying to meet you, bad language and all!!!!

[brexitplus] 30/3/2018 12:04

Oh dear Meanwhile. Unhappy chappy.

You can keep your wallet. You have your opinions and the rest of us will have ours. As for buying a car, as usual you have no idea. What car - a second hand Fiesta or a brand new Aston Martin!!!

Past record, and Melrose has one going back to Wassall Plc with effectively the same team, is a good indication of how thorough they are, what their approach is, what they will pay, and the sort of results they are targeting. They are not going to change any of these four things. The past few weeks should have indicated to you that when they think a deal is good they will go for it, and not overpay. As Patient Capital said, they are really good at what they do.

Raining here in Hampshire - off to the pub for lunch.

[minerve] 30/3/2018 11:55

There are plenty of idiots on these threads and, sadly, I start to believe all of them are. But MEANWHILE, I have to say, you are nobody's puppy and you are certainly your own man, and don't take the hype to easily like most.

I admire your maturity on these issues and your convictions in your investment.My hat is off to you sir, I made an error of judgement about you.

[minerve] 30/3/2018 11:18

gettingrichslow

I agree management at GKN could have been better; the issues in aerospace were simply not acceptable and their failure in this regard really invited the opportunity for Melrose to take.

As far as why do I invest in a 'poor performing' company? From an investment point of view performance is a personal thing which creates a different set of requirements for every investor. GKN suited my requirements perfectly. Maximising short-term value was not a priority. Long-term risk management and shareholder value are. I believe Melrose will negatively affect both of those issues with the utilisation of debt and I also believe the majority of investors at the offer point rejected their approach because of this issue. Make no mistake, this takeover has been won by short-term bid arbitrageurs.

Let me say this: once you understand why investors buy negative yielding bonds, you will begin to understand that investing is not _just_ about making money and your investment acumen will improve considerably once you start to understand concepts like these.

[gettingrichslow] 30/3/2018 10:14

B+ and Davisto, you are both absolutely spot on.

Davisto - your post 3143 is a better summary than anything I've read anywhere else including all the media outlets.

Minerve - I'm afraid you are in cloud-cuckoo land. It is the existing GKN management's poor stewardship that is at fault here. They have stuffed up and their strategy for flogging automotive to Dana etc would have been bad for UK jobs and UK PLC. No idea why you would want to have 'a very large holding' in what was such a poorly run company.

B+, commiserations for winning, at least you get a photo of Meanwhile's wallet!

[games] 30/3/2018 09:47

Does anyone know who the gkn divi is payable to. Goes ex div shortly.

[brexitplus] 30/3/2018 08:30

Davisto, an excellent post.

[brexitplus] 30/3/2018 07:28

Oh gettingrichslow. After a good night’s sleep here in Hampshire I woke to the bad news of winning the competition!!!

After due reflection, and not wanting to leave minerve without a guest, I will be sending my invitation to Nigel Farage. I’m sure they will have an interesting time together!!!

Regarding the win, for the GKN supporters and their forecasts of gloom and despondency I suggest “watch and learn” is the order of the next few years. Melrose have a great record of doing what all management teams should be doing, ie. constantly improving their businesses. In most cases this provides more and better jobs, a much better company, and a feeling of progress rather than inertia. The Melrose team know exactly what they are doing.

Onwards and upwards!!! Have a great but possibly soggy Easter.

[davisto] 30/3/2018 01:11

RR seems to me to be a completely different kettle of fish. Sure, it's another turnaround case but in this case management has articulated a very clear vision, seems to have a plan, and is making good progress executing it. Nothing 'seat of the pants' about this at all. Even if its hands were not already full, I don't think Melrose (or any similar outfit) would see RR as especially appealing.

RR has been a spectacularly badly managed business ... but I don't think that's the case today.

[davisto] 30/3/2018 01:02

The GKN mismanagement response always looked horribly cobbled together and seat of the pants. It certainly gave me no confidence whatsoever that they had a clear plan for a strong business that would grow British jobs and expertise (most GKN jobs, by far, are outside the UK in any case). Their plan came down to nothing more than asset-stripping and cannibalising their own business.

Melrose will, I believe, deliver a far stronger business and more and better jobs than the current management would have been remotely capable of achieving.

Aggressive 'red in tooth and claw' turnaround specialists like Melrose will never get much love but, ultimately, they do contribute significantly to economic and employment growth ... and shareholder returns.

[minerve] 29/3/2018 23:37

gettingrichslow

The blood isn't on my hands, it's on yours.

[gettingrichslow] 29/3/2018 23:35

Minerve, what is stopping you donating a large portion of your profits to those families if you are genuinely concerned? If you've made 40% on a 'very large holding' you could easily do that. But I've got a strange feeling you're not going to.

[sogoesit] 29/3/2018 23:32

A lucky escape for me too but I think my entry was invalid ;-)
Isn’t B+ a lucky guy? I’m sure his BYW will enjoy the wine Minerve serves up...!
Bon appétit B+ !

[minerve] 29/3/2018 22:59

Well, well done to those that supported the Melrose bid. Like Brexit, I was on the losing side again. Maybe I am playing for the wrong team? I don't think so. It is an odd feeling being a 'loser' but sat on 40% return in two months on a very large holding.

I pity the staff who are 'guaranteed' they will be without a job before the end of the year. Not a position I would like to be in with the imminent uncertainties surrounding Brexit.

Obviously the bid arbitrageurs had a significant sway in the outcome and I personally believe such activity should not be allowed as it comprimises the ability of long-term shareholders to steer the direction of their company. Obviously shareholders were willing to sell to these short-termist hedge funds but nevertheless this should be adressed by the Takeover Panel.

Melrose has a history of closing UK plants and has only ever opened one - according to the FT, which was pro-Melrose - so we will have to see what happens regards UK PLC but I don't hold my breath.

Well, good luck with the holding chaps. I hope it turns out to be everything you wished for and more. Don't forget to send a Christmas card and a few presents to the families and children who will sacrifice their living standards this year to bolster your trading account balances.

Me? I'm shifting my profits into another engineering company that I already have a significant holding in, Rolls-Royce.

Well, if you get tired of Melrose, I might see you over on the RR thread.

[yertiz] 29/3/2018 22:05

Phew - dodged a bullet there!!

[gettingrichslow] 29/3/2018 21:19

Drum roll...Here are the results of the prediction competition...
We had 8 entries...
The actual result was Win/MRO=231/GKN=450
In 8th place, Minerve (Fail/150/480)
7th, Gettingrichslow (Fail/245/395)
6th, Meanwhile (Fail/230/410)
5th, Sogoesit (Win/243/-)
4th, Losos (Win/225/395)
3rd, Mayers (Win/235/402)
2nd, Yertiz (Win/229.5/428)
And the winner is...
1st, Brexitplus (Win/230/435) and quite comfortably the closest!
Well done B+, you get a signed photo of Meanwhile's wallet (presumably needs to be on A3 size photographic paper) and dinner with Minerve with Minerve cooking.