Melrose Industries Share Discussion Threads

[brexitplus] 26/3/2018 13:26

Yertiz, you are a very sensible poster. I would be happy for the GKN deal not to go through, not because I don’t think Melrose would make a huge success of it, but I too am greedy for the bonanza from Nortek and Ergotron.

I shan’t bother to react to Meanwhile any more. It’s like talking to someone who won’t make a decision but changes their mind every couple of days. Not constructive at all.

[yertiz] 26/3/2018 11:16

Another strong statement from Melrose this morning with mention of Nortek disposal being brought into the equation. Plus the increased holdings by Merrill Lynch (up from 5.22% to 6.5%)last week, all in all looks like the fight is won.

If it's 'lost', then we Melrose holders will have our bonanza with Nortek and Ergotron sales! Win-win.

[meanwhile] 26/3/2018 10:07

getting,

If you look at a wide variety of share price graphs (charts), you will see that the indices & individual share prices move up and down. The traces are not straight lines.

[gettingrichslow] 26/3/2018 09:50

Very much doubt that it will explain why you are still holding MRO when you are so negative about the outlook ("shares going nowhere fast") while simultaneously saying you like to "optimise gains". It's also revealing that you've read a book for beginners only six years ago?

[meanwhile] 26/3/2018 09:44

brexit & getting, 2 Lads,

I recommend :-
"Shares Made Simple: A beginner's guide to the stock market, Paperback – 16 Jul 2012, by Rodney Hobson.

This should answer your questions and explain Rights Issues.

[brexitplus] 26/3/2018 08:26

Getting

Fake news. Get someone to publish then retract is a standard ploy. It’s trying to get the smaller shareholders to do nothing.

[gettingrichslow] 26/3/2018 08:18

Another day, another GKN shambles...

From BBC website:
Another day, another extraordinary development in Melrose's £7.9bn hostile bid for GKN.

In a stock exchange announcement, it says: "GKN notes the articles published by the Sunday Telegraph and Sunday Times on 25 March 2018 relating to GKN and Melrose Industries PLC.

"The Sunday Telegraph article contained a comment by Anne Stevens, chief executive, that "Stevens says … she's convinced investors will back [GKN].

"The Sunday Times article contained a comment by Jos Sclater, group finance director, that "long-only shareholders are mostly supportive of existing management, and understand that the Dana deal and becoming a pure play aerospace company has, longer term, significantly more value than the Melrose bid".

"GKN confirms that these statements of shareholder support in respect of GKN were not verified and are hereby retracted."

[brexitplus] 26/3/2018 08:07

Getting.

I enjoyed Simon Peckham’s comment in the Sunday papers. When asked what would happen if Melrose lost he said,” we’d go away for the weekend and then look for another deal.”

I think GS taking a 3.14% stake is quite important, particularly since they had no say in what Melrose in the initial decision by shareholders to go ahead. It’s a vote of confidence. I never got an answer to my question!!!

In fact, I would rather trust the Melrose and GS analysts than Meanwhile’s back of a ‘fag packet.’

I see Dana have offered another £100 million. Hooray!!! I tend to think a lot of ordinary GKN shareholders have voted, many in the 5.76%.

[gettingrichslow] 26/3/2018 00:34

Meanwhile, your own post (3014) says MRO have overpaid and that the shares will be going nowhere fast. So if that's your opinion, how exactly will you be 'optimising gains' by holding on to MRO? (PS your numbers are a little misleading because the 'rights' had a tradeable value that isn't reflected in the gains you refer to against the 95p)

[meanwhile] 26/3/2018 00:04

Getting,
It's not hindsight. You must understand this; when the acquisition of Nortek was announced, MRO rose 50% immediately. The 95p new shares issued opened at around 150p. That's not hindsight, it's foresight. The gains were obvious and were built straight into the MRO price by the market. This time the gains are less obvious but such as the market sees have gone onto the GKN price.
As to why I'm not selling, it's because I try to optimise my gains rather than acting on sentiment.
I don't throw away the toys just because I'm tired of them.

[gettingrichslow] 25/3/2018 23:31

Meanwhile, it is easy to say in hindsight that 'it was always a big winner' but are you honestly saying you knew it was a dead cert? How come no-one else came in for Nortek at a higher price then?

And why on earth are you not selling MRO now if you're so unhappy at the deal?

[meanwhile] 25/3/2018 22:52

For once, I agree with Minerve. The term 'Skin in the game' is rubbish at all levels. All shares are held by somebody, some big holders have big names, pension funds etc., some are Directors It doesn't indicate they are more astute than anyone else.
I just can't latch on to these terms (like skin in the game) like others seem able to. Maybe all I need is a 'management mentoring' session.

[meanwhile] 25/3/2018 22:19

Brex,
When Carillion went under recently, were the shares in a shop or warehouse? No they were owned having been bought.
Somebody buying or owning 3.5% has no significance.

[brexitplus] 25/3/2018 21:51

Meanwhile. So why have GS taken a stake of 3.14%, which I think is less than the Melrose directors hold?

I think they roughly hold 3.5%. Skin in the game.

And of course GS have to buy their shares from others. But not the 10 million last June.

[meanwhile] 25/3/2018 21:41

Get your facts right, lads.

[brexitplus] 25/3/2018 21:30

Meanwhile, so I didn’t include Martin but not 260p as you said. . He still holds a huge number.

I think the problem you have is there was no rights issue and you feel short changed. You seem to change from day to day.

Don’t get angry with me and getting. Water off a ducks back.

[meanwhile] 25/3/2018 21:23

brexitplus,

You must know that shares are bought & sold all the time. Somebody always owns them.
Goldman buys 3.14% but they weren't manufactured and put on the shelf, somebody sold them. If Goldman had gone into the market for 3%., the price would have risen strongly.

Get the facts correct.
Director Sales.

27 Jun 2017 Melrose PLC David Roper Sell 2,000,000 @ 250.91p £5,018,200.00
27 Jun 2017 Melrose PLC David Roper Sell 2,000,000 @ 254.65p £5,093,000.00
02 Jun 2017 Melrose PLC Geoffrey Martin Sell 6,000,000 @ 237.00p £14,220,000.00

gettingrichslow,

Yes, lots in the press and in the market. When the rights issue was announced the existing shares rose 50% and continued to rise. The new shares were issued at 95p and opened at 150p. Nortek was clapped out and paying huge interest on its debts. It was always a big winner.
I've followed MRO for 13 years. Get your facts right.

[brexitplus] 25/3/2018 21:21

Getting ...

Many people who don’t see Melrose as “asset strippers” actually treat then as ordinary old fashioned engineering companies. Of course they are not so the normal analysis is incorrect.

Interesting article I the FT entitled “ Melrose starts intense divisions ....”

[gettingrichslow] 25/3/2018 21:04

Meanwhile, you see nothing in the press or here to persuade you. But if you cast your mind back a few years, did you see anything in the press or here to persuade you that they could do what they did with Nortek? B+ also makes a good point doesn't he?

[brexitplus] 25/3/2018 20:27

Meanwhile

Goldman Sachs has just bought 3.14% of Melrose shares starting at zero. Any suggestions why?

By the way, Roper sold 4 million shares at average 252p and still holds 14.5 million.

Miller and Peckham sold none.

[meanwhile] 25/3/2018 19:15

If my facts are accurate, MRO have 1.94B shares in issue, GKN 1.72B. If the bid succeeds there will be 4.84B MRO shares in issue.
For a decent return on the new Melrose, I would have thought holders would be looking for a £3 share price (assuming no sales of businesses) after a year or two at most.
£3 would capitalise the new Melrose at around £14.5B. Since the new group will have debt of around £4.5B, the businesses would need to be valued at £19B.

I've seen nothing in the press or here to persuade me that this figure is reasonable to achieve. If Melrose shareholders are looking for the quick returns they're used to at Melrose, then look somewhere else.
The truth, I think, is that they have overpaid and the overpayment is going to current holders of GKN.

GKN holders should bear in mind that they will be left holding MRO shares going nowhere fast. They will get rid at a good opportunity.
MRO holders should bear in mind that this acquisition is not like all the others, that is buying a pig's ear which just needed a bit of help to turn it around. They will wish they had sold when the bosses did, at 260p.

[meanwhile] 25/3/2018 09:45

Numerophobia is increasingly common these days.
Communists, like Jeremy Corbyn Paul Mason and Diane Abbott, tend to have it.

[gettingrichslow] 23/3/2018 23:43

Bscuit, can't accept that entry. I need actual numbers. God, I'm starting to sound like Meanwhile.

Minerve has now attacked grahamburn but strangely enough he still hasn't offered his own entry so I'm still taking Meanwhile's interpretation of what Minerve's entry would have been, swearing and all.