Mccoll's Retail Share Discussion Threads

[imnotspartacus] 07/3/2020 14:47

I don't want to say I told you so but I may have too...

Imnotspartacus - 15 Sep 2019 - 14:22:23 - 982 of 1264

This could go to the low teens.

[kazoom] 06/3/2020 15:59

In fact I have done just that, although my main "powder" is being reserved for when the odds are more clearly in my favour.

I've bought c. 5% of my potential exposure here - it's entirely trivial but it at least sates my desire to "pile in" - in the past I have almost always "bought to soon" and I am now trying to play a MUCH more patient game.

[paulcarrm9mx] 06/3/2020 15:58

What do poor shares indicate. Is mccolls actually preparing to sell itself.

[aleman] 06/3/2020 14:21

kazoom - buy in small tranches then, like me. It's worked for me in the past sometimes, though not always. If you get a recovery stock, you'll often buy a tranche near the bottom which will do very well. It does not work so well in the falling part of the market but tends to generate some significant portfolio outperformance in the recovery in my experience. It might have just been luck - who knows. Anyway, based on my experience, I think breaking buys up is a better idea than trying to decide when the bottom is in.

[kazoom] 06/3/2020 12:28

True Aleman and it is very tempting at this price, but my aim here hasn't been to nick a few pence on the buy price, but rather wait for definite evidence of recovery in performance, even if that means buying at a higher price.

There's still room for the market to get even more depressed in my view - in the medium term though I'm pretty confident about McColls.

[sbb1x] 06/3/2020 12:08

Bid 26 Ask 28

[aleman] 06/3/2020 11:57

You have not got this price until you buy some!

That £60k+ sell has cleared and the price is up a touch so it looks like soaking up all the small buys while working that order was what was keeping the price down.

[kazoom] 06/3/2020 10:40

Aleman - absolutely no short here - I want to be a buyer and never seriously thought I'd get this price (and yet it's still moving downwards).

Was just speculating over why the price might be falling this week.

[loganair] 06/3/2020 10:19

McColl's say that closing the newsagents and smaller poorly performing stores will give an average increase in profit of 53% per store.

The problem I see at my local McColl's is how they tend to sell things in smaller quantities which is always more expensive. For example...Washing powder, being sold in 1kg and 1.5kg boxes where as in supermarkets usually 4kg to 6kg boxes.

Then I suppose as many of their customers do not have cars then a 6kg box of washing powder will be too heavy to walk home with.

[aleman] 06/3/2020 10:07

MCLS has a northern bias. The weather up here has been lovely this week - frost every day then sunny and little wind. The sun is streaming in now as I type and I'm about to go out and do some jobs while I can, now things have finally dried out. Close your short and go find something overpriced.

[kazoom] 06/3/2020 10:03

Greggs report earlier in the week included this :

"We made a very strong start to 2020 in January, but in February saw a significant slowdown in sales growth as a result of the storms that have affected the UK. There is some uncertainty in the outlook, particularly given the potential impact of Coronavirus."

Given that McColls have been prone to blame the weather in the past - I wonder if there is some read-across been taken from this?

[aleman] 06/3/2020 10:02

The debt is falling. EBITDA is expected to rise slightly. I have seen panic buying at our local Coop so MCLS might benefit a little. The shares are just way too cheap. Shorters should go find something expensive to short. I've topped up again. There's lots of small PI buying now and no selling but the price has not moved yet. They must be working a big sell and then it will likely jump a bit when it's done.

[loganair] 06/3/2020 09:55

My 3 nearest McColl's are in estate parade of shops and if 8 o'clock at night their customers who do not have a car are going to get on the bus to their nearest supermarket.

Even Tesco Express shops are more expensive then the standard Tesco supermarkets what more Tesco themselves say that is the case.

[davro] 06/3/2020 09:55

Paul, the threat of supermarkets is nothing new, yes its a competitive industry but I don't see consumer habits changing to the extent where convenience stores are no longer viable.
Hard not to see Morrisons taking this out in the next few years if the trial partnership continues to be successful imo.

[paulcarrm9mx] 06/3/2020 09:37

davro, 99.9% of supermarkets are open the same as Convienance stores and are on average 50p per item that convienances and supermarkets have buying power ie 500m bottles of cocoa cola compared to 10m bottles for convienance stores. big fish in the ocean. tadpoles in the poolso to speak.

[loganair] 06/3/2020 09:36

McColl's are closing around 10 shops per month, that is one every 3 days, I don't think they can go much faster then that.

The closest McColl's to me, most of their customers seem to be either the elderly, mum's with prams and toddlers or those who do not have cars.

[paulcarrm9mx] 06/3/2020 09:11

the easist way to reduce debt fast is mass sell offs or closures within months not years.

[davro] 06/3/2020 09:05

convenience stores still have their place and always will - why drive 3 miles to the supermarket for milk if the shop is just a 2min walk away?
Why do you think the board need to raise cash Kinwah? the company is cash generative and the management focus is now on reducing debt.

[paulcarrm9mx] 06/3/2020 09:01

Looks like mccolls is preping for a take over within the next 2 years

[kinwah] 06/3/2020 08:54

Who on earth stocks up with anything from McColls? A very nice Eastern European gentleman can deliver cartons of ciggies to your front door. Supermarkets sell booze much cheaper than convenience stores.FWIW I think the shareprice is coming to terms with the very weak balance sheet. I haven't read the latest accounts but there might be some nasties lurking in the notes. Raising cash has to be one of the board's survival options.

[bigtommy] 06/3/2020 08:24

What has driven the share price down even further?

[sbb1x] 06/3/2020 08:17

Bid 24pTake over target very soon imo. I dont hold

[cliff edge] 05/3/2020 19:27

I expected that all of the ex co ops would transition directly into Morrison daily format, it makes sense as the sales uplifts are significant and will more than mitigate the revenue loss from the planned closures. Not surprised either that the current finance arrangements have only been extended by 10 months from July 2021 to May 2022, as I understand it the original supply contract with Morrisons was for 5 years from January 2017 which is also due to expire / renew in 2022. along with the sell off of the head office, the closure of 330 small stores, it has all the Hallmarks of a Morrisons takeover of 1100 convenience stores some time before the creditors end date. announcement before then though MMC etc IMO.