Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Mccoll's Retail Group Plc LSE:MCLS London Ordinary Share GB00BJ3VW957 ORD GBP0.001
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -0.55 -2.04% 26.40 121,033 16:35:28
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
26.10 26.70 26.10 26.10 26.10
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Food & Drug Retailers 1,218.70 -98.64 -83.30 30
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
16:28:20 O 15,233 26.2602 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
07/1/202116:52McColl’s Retail Group Plc2,797
11/8/202015:47McColls - Covid & beyond: Convenience Stores 81

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Mccoll's Retail Daily Update: Mccoll's Retail Group Plc is listed in the Food & Drug Retailers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker MCLS. The last closing price for Mccoll's Retail was 26.95p.
Mccoll's Retail Group Plc has a 4 week average price of 24.20p and a 12 week average price of 20p.
The 1 year high share price is 56p while the 1 year low share price is currently 14.95p.
There are currently 115,304,400 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 206,681 shares. The market capitalisation of Mccoll's Retail Group Plc is £30,440,361.60.
jimmygeeee: The FT forecast (which combines the earnings estimates of the four analysts that cover the stock) is currently showing a consensus earnings estimate of adjusted EPS of 5.02p this year and 5.51p for next year versus 5.55p last year. The consensus price target is 55p. I'm assuming that MCLS will earn 4.5p because their 1H adjusted EPS trailed last year by 0.5p, so applying the same result to 2H would yield adjusted EPS of about 4.5p. It could fall a bit lower than that if it turns out that the store closures are costing them. But even a 4p result for 2020 should command a share price around 40p. Perhaps if a Brexit deal finally materializes people will stop viewing UK equities as "uninvestable" and we'll get some more deep value guys buying in? Anyway, this is why I own the stock. People are probably freaking out over the 1H loss and don't realise that virtually all of MCLS' profit comes in the second half of the year!
spectoacc: I guess the flipside is - where would the MCLS share price be without someone having come in for c.5%. At some point margins improve and the equity becomes a lot more valuable - tho from what level isn't clear :)
loganair: I believe when it comes the big news that is likely to move the share price is the one on Morrison Daily conversions. When announced if no more stores to be converted then I can easily see the share price falling, maybe by as much as 50% as will show Morrison's having little confidence in McColl's going forward.. If 10 to 20 to be converted then I see the share price staying appropriately where it is - maybe a small rise, 50 to be converted the share price rising by 5p to 10p and 100 could easily see McColl's share price rise by 10p and quickly doubling from where it currently stands as this number of conversion will show Morrison's having real confidence in McColl's going forward.
cliff edge: All very interesting stuff but at the end of day none of it is going to lift the share price, Mc Colls have just delivered a robust H1 set of results with a sustainable reduction of £12min in debt and an increased EBITDA and the share price has halved! Despite the fact that this will be the only retail plc company to increase profits and reduce debt this year, whilst others are beginning to report 28% fall in profits and increased debt, the share price here continues to fall. The fact remains is that the real value here is in what are 1100 "local" neighbourhood convenience stores with potential for conversion to local fresh food convenience stores with a 40% sales uplift on current turnover worth to a major?
cliff edge: There are 4 main benefits for H2 1/ A LFL sales uplift of at LEAST +8% circa +£48min that will generate £12min of additional cash. 2/ 6 full months of business rates relief (only 2 months in H1)which covered the extra Covid costs, these Covid costs will be less in H2. 3/ £7.3min freehold sale of HO. 4/ The start of administrative cost savings from the optimisation program. We dont know how well Mc Colls are doing because they dont tell us! (No Q3 trading update despite one given for the past 4 years) so therefore we work it out for ourselves. I suspect that they want to keep the share price supressed at this stage, leading to private investors selling off which in turn lowers the share price.
loganair: If McColl's are doing as well as some posters on this thread continually say they are then how come McColl's share price falls almost on a daily basis? Currently McColl's have one of the lowest EBITDA margins in the supermarket sector and therefore are barely able to make a profit and have sold their last remaining assets to try and reduce their debt load and have no more assets to sell. Sainsbury's has the lowest EBITDA margins and are therefore struggling profitwise. Just look how poorly their share price has done over the past year compared to either Tesco or Morrison's. It wouldn't surprise me if Sainsbury's share price continues to fall and ends up down at 150p, lower than where is was over 30 years ago.
loganair: How is McColl's doing at the present time: 1. Is McColl's any good at what it does - Not really 2. Does McColl's generate consistent growth while remaining profitable - No 3. Is McColl's an efficient operator - Not Really 4. Does McColl's have any pricing power - No, the complete opposite is true as it has to reduce prices to compete with the big supermarket groups. Conclusion - At the moment McColl's is a terrible business and is why the share price is currently where it is. Best hope for McColl's is to be able to convert more of their stores into Morrison Daily's and in 18 months time or so to be take over by Morrison's. Will the McColl's share price see 295p again, the price the chairman sold his 10% stake for to the Baltic's richest man - Almost certainly No. If Morrison's makes a play for McColl's at what price do I think they'll make the play for. Best that can be hoped for is 100p + 10p special dividend. The 100p may come in as an all cash offer or maybe all share offer.
cliff edge: Mc Colls margin was 24.99% for H1, scratch cards have a margin of just 5%. it is my understanding that they withdrew scratch cards from sale at the height of the lockdown as they were a non essential purchase so that they could concentrate their efforts on selling food and other higher margin products. The average £10k commission is a make up of all services ie. on line Lotto, Paypoint utility payments, post office, phone top ups & scratch cards etc. the removal of scratch cards for a short period would not have been that detrimental to profits. The current share price is ridiculous for a company that paid down £12 min of debt from just the last 8 weeks of trading in H1 and are unlikely to need to reborrow any of that into H2, & reported on target EBITDA earnings at the half year. current share price represents just over 1 x EBITDA! This will probably be the only retail PLC company in the UK to report increased earnings and lower debt by the year end in 2020, one of the few Covid winners & the current price dosent reflect that, it will rerate.
netcurtains: MATHS EXAMPLES Its worth noting that ALL shares in the entire stock market stand a significant chance of doubling in 2 years not just McColls: BT, ITV, WGB, WEY, TRD - the list covers all shares. AN EXAMPLE: What the investor or trader has to do, is compare risk reward of various companies. For example, TRD - Triad is 83% of a NETNET (its share price is lower than its NAV ). Nav 36p, share price 26p. It has £3.8M in the bank but a market cap of just £4M. "When" it makes a profit the share price often is in range of 70p-80p... Would you say Triad has lower risk and higher reward then McColls? Those are the sort of questions you need to look at. I picked TRD as I know that buywell3 thinks it will fall (and I have shares in it) but I could pick loads of examples - look at ITV or WINcanton there are lots around.... Academics say investors/traders start to lose money when they over concentrate on the ONE SHARE... Make sure you dont get sucked into the McColls black Hole. McColls has to look good RELATIVE to other companies otherwise why bother???
ymaheru: Firstly, Logan's apparent pessimism on H1 results was more accurate than mine or some others' opinions. Good work Logan, and thanks for sharing opinions. I probably held off buying more shares because of some of that. Regarding, SG&A, MCLS DID CUT it by 2.8%, and sales decreased only 1.1%, so even with COVID, things have gone in the right direction, both in sterling terms and as a percentage of revenues. That is GOOD NEWS. See page 11 H1 results. I know people are disappointed with gross margins, BUT LFL sales were up 20% (or 8%) and the sales mix altered: Customers doing food shopping won't pay 90p for a Mars bar; they'll buy a multipack. The proportion of main and top-up shop customers swelled massively (75%, up from 52% of trade), so margin erosion is unavoidable. MCLS have improved gross margins over the years, which is excellent in the grocery market, and they still only slipped 0.5% during COVID. I am disappointed by a slip, but I'm not sure what else could've been done. MCLS would have been vilified if a multipack of Mars bars suddenly rose from £2.75 to £6.30 in an attempt to preserve margins. I'd take a 0.5% gross margin slip if LFL's are up 8.3%. I am expecting a further slip in H2 as the mix won't fully recover, but I also expect LFL's to be up 15%+. LFL's were growing in May and June from April. LFL's GREW as lockdown eased! May's LFL's were HIGHER than April and June higher than May. That may be partly due to the poor summer in 2019 setting a low bar, but I did NOT expect LFL's to be so high after lockdown. It may even be that people noticed the amount of shopping they can do in their McColls and are now using it as a viable alternative to the big grocers. IF that is the case, then well done McColls' management. I'm not just a happy clapper here. I wish they had shown a profit (or at least produced a full pre-IFRS16 income statement) and it would have been great if they'd managed to preserve gross margins, but I still see some good things, and I'm not sure why anyone is saying that SG&A costs increased. They were higher than they may have been, but they decreased. For the above reasons, I haven't sold off any MCLS shares yet However, I am nervous about the declining share price.
Mccoll's Retail share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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