Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[123trev] 24/8/2018 13:02

To true que the market is shouting a message but the trouble is that message always changes every few years now the question is,is this a dead duck or their next 50% score!

[quady] 24/8/2018 12:22

QuePassa - two beer hotels, as I understand. Brewdog shares currently value the company at £1.8bn. Mars is £600m. Mars is due to open what 15 bars and 10 hotels this year?
Brewdog is growing fast but its revenue is still comparable with Marstons operating profit. It'll take a fair while (5-10 years) for Brewdog to raise operating profit to half of Mars. Meanwhile Brewdog pays no divi and dilutes equity. I've been very happy with my brewdog investment but personally I'm in the process of selling half my shareholding. America is risky/not going that well imho, brexit is a bit export risk and Brewdog is too big to be cool in its core markets. You're right though, Mars needs to grow into the market. Shipyard isn't enough.

[spacecake] 24/8/2018 12:03

Brewdog, yes their growing fast and not just in the UK, they are a very different proposition to Marstons. Very modern brewing, bottling and canning faciities, no cask, city bars, beer clubs and very importantly a community of shareholders that use their products as well as a % of venture capital.



Next time Ralphs in London he should pop into Tower Hill bar and get a look at whats possible as an alternative to building budget lodges that don't really support the brewery buisness that much.

Their even raising cash now through there website

[exel] 22/8/2018 22:17

Quite a few heavy hitters have taken 5+% positions, just to let us mere mortals know "they're there" - Deutsche Bank, Standard Aberdeen and at least one other? Bodes well, given the net/positive newsflow I can see coming, here.

[pherrom] 22/8/2018 13:59

Mars reported shorts 3.52% and last two trades closing.

[spmc] 22/8/2018 12:16

Tipped on UK Investor:

[blackburnrover] 22/8/2018 11:52

So Deutsche bank announced yesterday they now have just over a 5% holding. What are everyone's thoughts on this..

[my retirement fund] 21/8/2018 19:55

Yea theve probably bought them to lend out for shorting and cover a massive short derivative book.

[123trev] 21/8/2018 12:38

I think this will try and hit that 97p!

[123trev] 21/8/2018 11:06

To much money selling out of property at the minute and crest looks destined to test the £3.40 level again imo.

[rcturner2] 21/8/2018 09:51

Barratt recently updated on London and gave a positive slant.

My understanding is that although Crest is very much SE only, they actually do not have much in London.

edit, see the attached:

[my retirement fund] 21/8/2018 09:51

I think we are starting to see the beginnings of that starting now imo.

[my retirement fund] 21/8/2018 09:50

House prices need to normalise longer term in the UK. This probably means London ans catchments falling by 20% and some other areas eg. west mids some parts Yorkshire and Humber rising a further 20%.

[the deacon] 21/8/2018 09:39

I like the look of some of the house builders, but CRST heavy London weighting makes me a little reluctant there. Good luck though. Personally happy to see this sector malaise through, and ride MARS back towards 140's to start ..

[rcturner2] 21/8/2018 09:23

Having had my Marstons cash sitting around since I sold, I have used the money to buy into Crest Nicholson.

[123trev] 20/8/2018 14:34

That was a chunk!

[lindowcross] 20/8/2018 14:12

You'll note I referred to Young & Co's riverside pubs as being incredibly valuable and more than is recorded in the accounts. Despite the requirement for valuation I suspect that is in fact the case. How often does a pub such as Young & Co's "the White Hart" in Barnes, South-west London or ones like it - a lovely pub with views up and down the river Thames - come up for sale. Almost never: because the owner knows it's a goldmine, and doesn't need to sell in any event. So there will be a lack of comparable sales, and this leaves the way open I would suggest for the valuers to take ahem, a "conservative" valuation of the assets. Probably the same applies to some of GNK's central London pubs. There was a good discussion about these points a couple of years ago in relation to Fuller's on the late, lamented iii boards. I like the way Marstons is run but I suspect the value of their pubs is probably closer to book value due to its lack of "iconic" and central London locations. I concede these comments are to an extent based upon supposition but so is most comment about shares.

[jeffian] 20/8/2018 10:10

Yes, I saw the Questor column. I slightly raised my eyebrows that in a reviews of the "sector" they made no mention at all of EIG which remains the biggest pub group of all.

Re #797, I don't disagree with the general sentiments of the post but it is wrong in one respect. "These must be incredibly valuable - no doubt far more than is recorded in the accounts." There certainly was a time decades ago when brewers were perceived to be stuffed with undervalued assets, carrying many of their pubs at historic cost in the Balance Sheet, but those days are long gone. Accounting rules these days require annual valuation of the assets; increases in value are carried to the Balance Sheet and decreases in value are written off against those surpluses unless the value falls below Book Cost, at which point the loss has to be taken to the P&L account. Far from being undervalued, the fact that several pubco's trade (and PUB was sold) at a substantial discount to NAV suggests that the market believes the opposite in some cases.

[the deacon] 20/8/2018 06:29

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/shares/join-questors-pub-crawl-go-search-sectors-attractive-stocks/Marston's is executing its strategy well against a challenging market backdrop, according to Berenberg.The bank said that over the past five years the company had disposed of more than 700 pubs and reinvested the proceeds into more than 100 quality new-build pubs, predominantly located around new housing developments where competitive pressure was less intense.It rates the shares a hold with a 105p price target. They look cheap on a price-to-earnings (p/e) ratio of 6.6 and a yield of 8pc.

[lindowcross] 18/8/2018 19:09

I'm content to remain holding MARS, GNK, YNGA and other pub/brewery shares. They'll continue to be good investments because:

There's a self-evident limited supply of historic, charming, city-centre, river-side etc etc pubs. Planning and licensing rules will make it hard to add even modern pubs in iconic locations eg West End of London, Thames-side, beaches around the country. GNK in particular seems to own a large number of attractive London pubs which often to me seem full to brimming. YNGA owns many beautiful pubs in London, including those on the Thames. These must be incredibly valuable - no doubt far more than is recorded in the accounts. Pubs will remain popular despite closure of sites in fringe locations. Ownership of premium pubs by these companies creates an effective "moat" against competition within the pub sector, and even within the more general dining-out sector. (I'm surprised Warren isn't invested here.)

Many companies face "disruption" from the internet and tech companies. For example, Amazon is now looking at providing insurance comparison services. Tough for Go-compare and similar companies. But let's see how Amazon gets on trying to replicate an Edwardian river-side pub!

So MARS and GNK carry large debts, that's not ideal but they need to maintain their estates and at least they're not at the mercy of rapacious landlords increasing rents year by year.

I think MARS is correct to keep its small, local brewers. Localism encourages loyalty and whilst the small breweries will never make huge profits they will maintain brand value. People value quality and knowledge about the provenance of the products they consume. Just look at the sums being paid by big, anonymous brewers for craft brewers. Carry on.

[the deacon] 17/8/2018 14:41

Added a good handful of MARS to the SIPP at 92.4p. Confident of some decent capital growth, along with that very attractive yield