Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[quady] 03/9/2018 18:40

QuePassa - actually I should nuisance that, destination and premium are taking a hit. Taverns, inns and brewing doing alright. Overall pretty flat.

[quady] 03/9/2018 18:33

QuePassa - Jamie Oliver is a decent example to look at. Mars has kept away from city centre openings over the last decade on the basis the numbers didn't stack up as the market is too comparative. Supply is dropping out of the market in the mid range. Loch Fyne as another example relevant to a major pub player. As yet Mars hasn't seen it's numbers hit. Underlying earnings/cash flow were little changed in the first half of the year even after the weather.
Perhaps we'll see a dip next year,

[quady] 03/9/2018 18:25

Anyone fancy a stab explaining why GNK is a 'buy' according to Citi?
I doubt Mars is likely to halve it's divi for the reasons Jeffian gave earlier. Citigroup analyst has a different view, fair enough. But I dont see the internal logic of GNK being a buy. Although GNK management desparate to maintain it the GNK divi looks more in peril to me (I hold both, but much less GNK).

[janekane] 03/9/2018 17:36

This company has all the tools to be very desirable however the way it's been run and the dreadfull share price is now a distinct candidate for an unwelcome bid
Good for recent investors who bought sub £1.05 but horrendous for the rest
The vultures are circling

[careful] 03/9/2018 16:56

the consumer is a worry though.
Extra billions are gambled using smart phones.
When the fun stops stop. They should.
Gambling is taking 10's of billions from the consumer, the figures are staggering.
Then there is the cost of the smartphones themselves.
Then sky tv.

The billions are being spent elsewhere, not on socialising or conventional shopping.

[janekane] 03/9/2018 16:21

All of above are correct you forgot the management ability to manage ,the City always considers this on a par with all information regarding its ability to trade share price higher
The City and its pundits are worried about this ones ability to move forward with the amount of debt
Question to you
SP
Why are we on a continuose drive south

[careful] 03/9/2018 16:09

sentiment is what is dreadful.
such pessimism assumes the worst.
a shorters paradise, they look for juicy targets.


Looking at the fundamentals of the business MARS is amazingly cheap.
Much is made of the debt, but it should be manageable.
All businesses have risk.

Net assets well above market cap.

[janekane] 03/9/2018 15:59

Times are exciting for the short buyers of this dreadfull company
This is on a none stop ride south

[careful] 03/9/2018 15:35

Citi downgrade pubs in general.
Linked to a disorderly Brexit.
As if they know.

[septimus quaid] 03/9/2018 12:01

Reminds me of Talk, where, for ages, every man and his dog was expecting a dividend cut.

Except for the BOD of course (who eventually had no choice but to capitulate).

[jeffian] 03/9/2018 11:17

I would be surprised to see a dividend cut for 2 reasons -

1) They have committed themselves to paying a divi around 2x covered by "underlying earnings" and have broadly achieved that, so unless there is a collapse in underlying earnings why would they cut? Last trading update in July said "we expect to deliver underlying earnings in line with expectations for the full year."

2) They did themselves huge damage in the City last time they sprung a surprise deep-discounted Rights issue and cut the divi to the new "sustainable" level (see above) and, arguably, the market's refusal to give them a rating since is a direct result of that. If they tried that trick again, I think they would be toast.

[the deacon] 03/9/2018 10:55

Citi expecting Divi cut...Citi analysts see "continued tough times" for UK consumers, given the rising level of household debt and the potential for a "disorderly Brexit".They reckon the higher-end restaurants and bars will be fine, as will the lower-end establishments as people switch dining out for a cheaper takeaway."Many listed operators risk being squeezed in the middle ground," read the note from the team, led by James Ainsley.Citi downgraded 'Spoons to 'sell' from 'neutral', while it went the other way with Mitchells & Butlers, moving the stock up to 'neutral' from 'sell'.The change sent Wetherspoon shares down 4.8% to 1,1876p, while Mitchells & Butlers shares rose 2.3% to 261p.As for fellow pubs group Marston's plc (LON:MARS), Citi reckons it will slash its dividend in half this year. That was weighing on its shares, which were down 0.8% to 91.9p in mid-morning trading.

[janekane] 03/9/2018 05:14

Sorry to say but yes I agree and a veg burger that bleeds is just another item that's awe inspiring in a direction not as expected
"We have listened to our customers and come up with this fudge "
What a load of veggi testicles
Why don't you listen to the owners of this whon time great company stop building pubs that people over the next decade will turn the public Hous into the 21 st century Dinasore
Selling rooms is a good idea but the amount of debt your lumbering us with
Is making this plan risky
Put the building plans on hold for 3/4 years build up a healthy balance sheet then start paying off the debt
You could do this and turn the City,s opinion of your running of this company in a more favourable direction
What are you going to do when the share price hits 80p Ralph introduce a chicken veggi burger

[dinvester] 02/9/2018 14:59

This is just small fries! and will make no difference to the catalogue of bad decisions made by RF.
The damage is done.
Confidence is zero.

[quepassa] 31/8/2018 15:19

“We have listened to our customers and taken the growing demand for healthier and alternative options across the pub sector as a great opportunity to develop and update our menu."


Two questions for Nicola Arrow:

1. How many calories does this meal/plate contain?, and

2. Would she confirm that she thinks that CHIPS + ONION RINGS + BRIOCHE BUN + SLAW constitutes a "HEALTHIER OPTION"?


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[the deacon] 31/8/2018 14:07

Banks's brewer Marston's is claiming a pub industry first with the launch of a new meatless 'bleeding' burger at a string of its hostelries across Staffordshire and the Black Country.The Wolverhampton-based beer and pubs giant has joined forces with Moving Mountains, a ground-breaking British company that has developed the B12 Burger, which sizzles, smells, tastes and bleeds like meat but is completely plant-based.Marston's says it will be the only major pub group to offer the Moving Mountains B12 Burger and the move forms part of the company's recognition of a growing demand for so-called 'flexitarian' dining, with more and more people cutting back on the amount of meat they eat and choosing vegetarian or even vegan options when they are dining out.The 100% plant-based burger will be available across around 50 pubs in Staffordshire and the West Midlands from Wednesday and Marston's believes it is set to cause a major upset in the dining-out market.The burger was launched earlier this year and is on sale in a number of restaurants but this will be its first time it goes on sale in pubs.Developed by a team of leading scientists, chefs and farmers, the B12 burger has taken more than three years and over 200 test recipes to create the final product.Not just a vegan burger, it is designed to test the biggest of meat eaters with its look, smell and taste replicating that of a regular meat patty by using scientific processes, natural ingredients and hush-hush technology.Just like a meat burger, the Moving Mountains B12 Burger 'bleeds' from the middle when perfectly cooked, but with beetroot juice instead of blood.The local Marston's pubs have been selected by the company's as the best-selling food pubs, and the ideal platform to champion the burger as part of the updated menu.Served on a brioche bun with vegan jackfruit, a side of Asian slaw and the classic burger sides of freshly cooked chips and onion rings, the whole meal is specifically created to be enjoyed by vegans, vegetarians, flexitarians and meat eaters alike.Nicola Arrow, Marston's senior food development manager, said: "We have listened to our customers and taken the growing demand for healthier and alternative options across the pub sector as a great opportunity to develop and update our menu.The Moving Mountains B12 Burger is such an innovative addition to our menus that not only caters to our vegetarian and vegan customers but also to those who are trying to make more conscious health or ethical choices when eating out."We are especially looking forward to seeing how our meat-eating customers get on with it!"A list of the Marston's pubs selling the new burger will be available online at www.nomeat.marstons.co.uk from September 5.

[janekane] 31/8/2018 07:30

Restaurant group reporting a 5.4 million drop in profit for 26 weeks 2018 and at 11.40 today has risen 6%
The city do not like Mars and its debt
Expecting further decline here today as the City looks at our stupid plans and debt
Change the way your running this once very good company Ralph before we lose more credibility 80 p share price is now a reality

[ttg100] 29/8/2018 14:58

still thinking about buying back in but for some reason can't pull the trigger yet even though seem very over sold

[quady] 26/8/2018 13:14

QuePassa - I ask because my understanding is the share price has been set by the company rather than the market. If there was such 'STRONG investor demand for the shares' then I'd expect the £50m share issue to have sold out after 10 months rather than having raised (nearly) £21m.

£1bn was a post money valuation (the actual valuation was about £900m) based on c-class shares which have a 'guarentee' of 18% compounded equity return. Mere mortals don't get that so the valuation is a tad flawed. I agree they aren't fools and have baked in their return into the share class created for them to invest.

The thing that I doubt is their ability to grow exponentially. The rate of bar openings is pretty steady and the way the US regulates state by state will be an obsticle. That and craft beer in the US is already a mature market with big operators in the same space.

That said, I'm only selling out half my stake as I expect BrewDog will be able to float at a premium to the price I'm able to sell at today (roughly a third less than the official buy price). They don't have a Fevertree/tech platform model, they are a traditional capital intensive business but market hype will probably hold a high valuation at least initially.

As far as I can tell, Marstons product offering isn't in decline (the wider market for real ale is) and although %growth isn't as high as Brewdog, absolute evenue and cashflow growth is growing as quickly.

BrewDog operate in a market becoming more and more crowded and to be perfectly honest, the product quality isn't as good as new even more innovative players. Brew Toon and Fierce can both outdo BrewDog in their own Aberdeenshire patch. Let alone every man and their dog opening craft breweries and bars nationally such as Northern Monk.

I agree there is an opportunity for Marstons which they aren't taking to create a hipster brand (like Tennants creating Drygate) and to roll out trendier bars than Pitcher & Piano. I'd like to see them do that and even without innovation I think they have interesting beers which could be bottled/canned in a 330ml format. Banana Bread Beer, whatever liquid they are using for Sainsburys Taste the difference IPA and the liquid for Shipyard would be good enough for starters.

[quady] 24/8/2018 18:27

QuePassa - my point as a shareholder in both companies is that I think Mars is likely to generate a better long term return from the current share prices. Can you explain how Brewdog's share price has been determined by the market please?

[123trev] 24/8/2018 13:56

Well that’s a mystery still waiting to be revealed Q nobody knows yet got to get to 97p though first any fall below the lows then bulldog still in play!