Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[fenners66] 08/7/2024 11:14

Look at the fundamentals - it may well make the cash flow much worse - and I don't buy the 2 statements about hedged and fixed interest vs saving £18m a year from £202m

If that saving is true , how come we could not follow that 9% cost on £200m in the accounts ?
If that is a threat of where its going , how much is the rest of the 1.16bn going to cost in future ?

[fenners66] 08/7/2024 11:13

The 40% was valued at £250.9m last Sept and only £220.7m by March 24

Depending on how they account for it that may have to compare to the Net proceeds of £202m
i.e. another err "exceptional " loss of £18.7m... perhaps...

But hey the directors will tell you its all good....

They bought £181m from the brewer last year ... how much are the price rises going to be this year ?

[fenners66] 08/7/2024 11:13

Looking forward they lose the dividends from brewing which had been £54m in the last 3 years....


Dividend received in the Sept 22 annual accounts £19.4m
Dividend received in the Sept 23 annual accounts £21.6m
Dividend in the 1st half this year increased to £13.8m

So despite the unbelievable £18m a year they reckon they will save in interest - they will lose more in not receiving the dividends....

[fenners66] 08/7/2024 11:12

"The Board of Directors believe that the value to be achieved by the proposed Transaction represents an attractive result for Marston's shareholders with the Marston's Group's interest expense to reduce by c.£18 million annually"


Really ?

Because of a £206m disposal?
That is about 9 % whereas for years they have been saying they were fixed for years to come at much lower rates.

One of the two statements cannot be right.

Which do we believe ?

[fenners66] 08/7/2024 11:06

sooty snipes - the market may well , it takes pressure off the debt pile.

I just like to look at the fundamentals - it may well make the cash flow much worse - and I don't buy the 2 statements about hedged and fixed interest vs saving £18m a year from £202m

If that saving is true , how come we could not follow that 9% cost on £200m in the accounts ?
If that is a threat of where its going , how much is the rest of the 1.16bn going to cost in future ?

[fenners66] 08/7/2024 11:01

The 40% was valued at £250.9m last Sept and only £220.7m by March 24

Depending on how they account for it that may have to compare to the Net proceeds of £202m
i.e. another err "exceptional " loss of £18.7m... perhaps...

But hey the directors will tell you its all good....

They bought £181m from the brewer last year ... how much are the price rises going to be this year ?

[sooty snipes] 08/7/2024 11:01

Well the market seems to like it. That's all that matters to me.

[fenners66] 08/7/2024 10:45

Looking forward they lose the dividends from brewing which had been £54m in the last 3 years....


Dividend received in the Sept 22 annual accounts £19.4m
Dividend received in the Sept 23 annual accounts £21.6m
Dividend in the 1st half this year increased to £13.8m

So despite the unbelievable £18m a year they reckon they will save in interest - they will lose more in not receiving the dividends....

[skinny] 08/7/2024 10:34

RIP real ale.

[boffster] 08/7/2024 10:32

I must confess to feeling a bit sad to no longer owning a part of a brewing operation. That said, from speaking to my contacts at CMBC it was felt that the merged operation was being badly run and morale was low. The realised price seems quite strong and the simplified operation ought to make MARS more attractive to a suitor.

[fenners66] 08/7/2024 10:32

"The Board of Directors believe that the value to be achieved by the proposed Transaction represents an attractive result for Marston's shareholders with the Marston's Group's interest expense to reduce by c.£18 million annually"


Really ?

Because of a £206m disposal?
That is about 9 % whereas for years they have been saying they were fixed for years to come at much lower rates.

One of the two statements cannot be right.

Which do we believe ?

[jeffian] 08/7/2024 10:14

The sale of the brewery business was definitely the right way to go, although MARS are very much behind the curve. Most other integrated pub/brewery groups split years (if not decades) ago. The new man has clearly bitten the bullet as soon as he got his feet under the able.

Edit: "under the table" is perhaps an unfortunate expression in the context of a brewery!

[socionomics] 08/7/2024 10:05

Looks like the next leg-up is starting. 54p is my technical target, but if a bid comes in we could see 150-200p+

[lookagain] 08/7/2024 09:16

Just to remind you MRF, the government supporting CO-OP says don’t go to pubs, instead eat and drink at home.

[alancapone] 08/7/2024 09:12

The market doesn't like it. Are we drinking in the Rovers 27p Return ?

[careful] 08/7/2024 09:07

A market cap of £195m is modest.
If they get the trading right then this could have a big upside.

Hold for a few years, tuck away.

[alancapone] 08/7/2024 09:03

Crown Jewels sold. Hardly made a dent in the debt. Not surprised punters are cashing in.

[m_kerr] 08/7/2024 08:55

WHilst a positive to delever, remember only £1.4bn of their estate is true freehold. £350m odd of other property is on property leases of around 25 years where they have the right to buy for £1 upon expiry so can call them freehold. THey often say £2.1bn estate but that is rubbish.

Thus around £550m of value.

[skinny] 08/7/2024 08:50

Carlsberg are certainly busy - $4.2B for Britvic.

[barnes4] 08/7/2024 08:46

Hindsight is a wonderful thing

[kulvinder] 08/7/2024 08:36

Seems to a panic sell, sold the family silver...seems short term to me, would they have not been better off takkng the bid offer when they had the chance?

[barnes4] 08/7/2024 08:18

Least we have seen the last of KY boi

What a loser

[my retirement fund] 08/7/2024 08:10

An initial 15% up. A lot further to go in the coming days imo.

[my retirement fund] 08/7/2024 08:09

It's pretty simple to tackle the problem, reduce VAT on pubs and restraunts, to say 15% to help them compete with the takeaway culture and make such businesses worthwhile for their entrepreneurial owner. Not rocket science. We have a new government that wants to improve growth and productivity! They seem to understand the importance of business.

[skinny] 08/7/2024 08:03

Looks like an extended opening auction.