Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[dexdringle] 25/1/2024 14:58

<<<<<<NY Boy 25 Jan '24 - 14:44 - 7008 of 7009

Let’s not forget the management rejected an all cash offer of 105p around 3 years ago..what were they thinking🤦
27995;‍♀️ The share price is down nearly 70%,a huge debt pile, these are the hard facts>>>>;>>

But the then CEO probably wasn't offered a cushy number with the potential new owners so why would he allow a takeover ?

[skinny] 25/1/2024 14:52

I'd drink to that!

[ny boy] 25/1/2024 14:44

Let’s not forget the management rejected an all cash offer of 105p around 3 years ago..what were they thinking🤦
27995;‍♀️ The share price is down nearly 70%,a huge debt pile, these are the hard facts.

What shareholder wouldn’t give their right arm for a 105p takeout!

[dexdringle] 25/1/2024 12:00

darrin. Are you saying that not a single Marston's property would be of interest to Wetherspoons ?

Bold claim that.

[trader465] 25/1/2024 11:01

JDW offer value for money and ease of access. Most JDW pubs are town/city center which means they are near bus routes and ideal for pensioners/students who have free bus passes, something suburban pubs/chains cannot offer

[heatseek77] 25/1/2024 10:58

darrin not all Marstons estate is suburban - predominately yes, approx 20% classed as town / city centre still 👍🏻

[darrin1471] 25/1/2024 10:41

JDW pubs are on the high street and MARS pubs are "suburban pubs".

[heatseek77] 25/1/2024 09:48

runs - rns

[heatseek77] 25/1/2024 09:42

As it's clear so far you've done none of your splendid research on Marston check last year's sales figures over Easter and summer (both up on previous) and they have released runs on some sales so far go and read, learn abit 🤷

[heatseek77] 25/1/2024 09:42

NY gal so your using a crystal ball now re Easter and summer, are you strapped for cash your brush isn't everyone else's sunshine.

[ny boy] 25/1/2024 08:35

Need to do a lot better than just Christmas, they need a strong Easter & summer period, the trouble is consumers are strapped for cash and trying to pay down the Xmas/NY binge.

The focus will be on what exactly is the NAV for the chain, I suspect nothing close to £2B. No one knows if they sold all 61 Freehold pubs from last year, that alone would provide a good barometer as to the whole NAV?

[heatseek77] 25/1/2024 08:14

Anyway did you know a new CEO is in place his name is Justin some research done for you - great background in the entertainment sector 👍🏻

[heatseek77] 25/1/2024 08:11

Looking at the chart don't believe Marstons have had a Santa rally do you really!

[heatseek77] 25/1/2024 08:11

NY gal thanks for that, so your the only person who believes Christmas isn't a good barometer 🤷

[ny boy] 25/1/2024 07:44

As a potential investor, you certainly need to carry out due diligence over the property portfolio £2Billion 🤔 They have been selling off valuable sites over the years and what percentage remaining is Freehold.so many other pub have closed and rivals have been closing and selling off assets. A lot of NAV’s around today are highly ambitious imo

Sector facing higher staff costs, energy costs gen Z are drinking less alcohol and more non alcoholic drinks, have to ignore Christmas it need to be a blow out one, it what happens over the next few quarters.

I will carry out some more research and look to possibly take a position when equity markets correct after this Santa rally

[pj84] 24/1/2024 19:23

With regard to the debt, if they are currently profitable despite the debt and have revenue generating assets, then as the interest environment improves as anticipated ,then as they renew debts the reduced interest should feed directly into increased profit. I haven't, however, looked in detail at the current debt profile of interest costs and maturity. So just a general observation.

[ny boy] 24/1/2024 10:35

What happened to the 61 Freehold PH’s they instructed Christie & Co to market last year, have they all been sold, any nos how much was raised after costs?

[rmillaree] 23/1/2024 20:47

the reality is in firesale the asset MAY be worth less than book value - it certainly is one option on the table if they could offload a was of property. one issue with doing that is they would have less profits and have to spread central overheads over lower saels etc - so it kinda defeats the purpose of the business going down that route if they could move forward and drive profits up and pay down debt naturally - the reality is the market thinks they are ina bit of a pickle and their attempts at reducing debt to date have been somewhat lacklustre.

[dexdringle] 23/1/2024 20:30

£1bn of debt and £0 assets = misery

£1bn of debt and £2bn assets = clover

Surely they accrued the £1bn of debt IN ORDER TO ACCUMULATE £2bn of assets. And, in the same way, they could sell assets to pay down debt. And be left with £1bn unencumbered. Which is what they should do.

[heatseek77] 23/1/2024 16:28

disco obviously trader works a remarkable stop loss but is having probs with difference between asset value and debt 🤔🤔

[rmillaree] 23/1/2024 16:21

“How many decades of profit to pay off the debt?”

Not so long ago Mars actualy had projections that showed debt could be fully repaid before 2040 if they wanted to.

If they could chip away £50 mill pa of debt for 4-5 years. then as interest charges lower you easily have any extra £10 mill to £40 mill pa available when they have lower finance changes all othe rthings being equal - so you could perhaps pay £100 pa off in the last 3 years. Thats cloud cookoo land at present - i have ben very dissapointed how poor cahflow has ben poost covid - i would say its a fine balance if one does under invest in "tickover miantenance" then imho there would be no future if all funds wre used to pay debt down. Just like a mortgae really not much progress fisrt 7 years fo 25 year mortgage but last 7 years you are flying. The bonus would be if they could offload none core/low profit generating property at near book value - i think they would have been looking at that anyway to be honest the last couple of years

[careful] 23/1/2024 15:51

Only kidding, I have a gift for buying dogs.
Somehow I manage forge slowly ahead.
Last year was a good year.
I am invested here, have been on and off for years.

[disc0dave46] 23/1/2024 15:28

"How many decades of profit to pay off the debt?"Carrying value of property £2.1bn

[trader465] 23/1/2024 14:21

“careful23 Jan '24 - 13:48 - 6983 of 6984
I personally have never made a poor investment”

How have you achieved this phenomenon? I regularly make lots of poor investments but they never lose me more than 1-2% of my account. The few that are not poor investments make far more % profit than the combined majority poor investments lose.