Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[john09] 29/5/2020 10:04

Paul Scotts view on the markets , where we have been and where we are going

[slinkyj] 29/5/2020 08:55

Yes Sif, AML doing very well. Today is a breather. Monday for fireworks.

[sif12] 29/5/2020 08:52

Hi Garth, true a lot of debt, but thats set against the Estate asset value. Depends if youre valuing on a NAV basis, Rev or earnings. Hence why Id suggest £1+ which puts minimal value on the Estate above what the Brewing business has been valued/ bought at.

[garth] 29/5/2020 08:41

sif12,

Don't forget that their prelims show GBP1,399 million in debt.

They are targeting reducing that by £200m this year.

You need to factor that into your valuation, IMO.

That said, I like these and have traded in and out a few times over recent weeks. I would like them as a lth, but overnight activity in the USA worries me short term.

G.

[sif12] 29/5/2020 08:41

Hi Slinky AML doing well too. think 60 maybe be tough to get past today- expected a stronger open, but we should move up nicely into the AGM.. which I expect to be full positives and updates on production.

[slinkyj] 29/5/2020 08:38

I was prepared to pay up to 70 on the open as well. A gift

[slinkyj] 29/5/2020 08:37

Yep couldn't believe I saw this dip happen, so I bought into. It was tipped off yesterday on the aml bb.

[mister md] 29/5/2020 08:34

I think a few were robbed selling at 58p and below ... onwards and upwards now

[sif12] 29/5/2020 08:33

As a recap for anyone new..Marstons has brewing and it has its physical estate. Part of the brewing business sold in a JV with Carlsberg, giving Marstons 273m in cash and valuing ONLY the brewing business at 580m or about 88p.. you then have all of the estate- the pubs which have significant value too..

It seems fair value should be at least above £1.. which only adds 12 pence to the brewing valuation..

Thinking of a hot summer, and travel plans,TUI and others have pushed resumptions of flights to july.. but I think it will only be a limited resumption.. Greeks and spanish needs tourists, their economies are being crushed. but there'll be much less options and a 14 day quarantine if you choose to go..With a quick unlock.. people who cant fly- a lot of people! will be enjoying the sun in beer gardens.. I think a lot of pubs will create and be allowed to have more people outside.. with limitations on numbers inside the pub.

In terms of anything further Ive looked at.. the company was looking at refreshing its existing pubs.. and reducing debt.. the 273m allows them to do both..

Marston should be in a really strong position going forward.

Who knows if Carlsberg buy out the rest of the brewing business? makes sense to retain marstons as the minority shareholder initially, but then give it 6 months and then buy them out completely. If that happens Marstons get another 310m.. so 580m and they currently have a mcap of 415m. PLUS all of the Pubs which remain theirs

[slinkyj] 29/5/2020 08:31

Having a pint here today on this little dip, prospects look very good short term. I'd agree with the 100 statement as historical support and lows

[sif12] 29/5/2020 08:22

maybe some of the long termers fancy a change :) looks like one or two big sells.. hopefully moves up slowly now..

[pejaten] 29/5/2020 06:15

tipped as strong buy in the Times today

[wrightshare1] 28/5/2020 19:17

Best share buy Marsdons for long term growth.I recon £1 per share end of June is highly likely.
Worth lumping on I have 👌

[mister md] 28/5/2020 16:48

+16% good daily move

[sif12] 28/5/2020 16:39

Cotswold I read on here that the majority of profits come from operations.. so 'losing' a % of the brewing business wont really impact profits to date, and potentially add backs additional profit.

As you can see from pictures of people on beaches and in parks.. can you imagine how well the pubs will do? people will just stand outside.

[cotswoldking] 28/5/2020 16:33

My thoughts are, it was happily sat at about 1.2 before Covid so I would like to hope it would return to there or there abouts.

However surely now with teaming up with Carslburg and like you said Sif12 with less people going abroad and every gasping to get to the pub, this should go higher ?!

Hoping for a strong finish tomorrow when people start dreaming about getting to the pub again...

[sif12] 28/5/2020 14:47

Hello all.. so heres my Mars story.. read the RNS late on Friday bought first thing Tusday watched it go up andd down in 30 minutes... intended to hold over longer term, but got scared out ended up selling at breakeven.. been watching over the last few days.. opened the page for MARS this morning at 7.30 after hearing about Boris suggesting pubs may open sooner.. forget about it until 1.30 and bought back in.

Seemed to have timed my buy perfectly- right at the top :D

anyway. this time seems less trading noise and with the gov intent to continue to unwind lockdown, with the hot summer due.. and potential limitation on international travel, think MARS will do great.. so looking to hold.

Should hopefully be trading £1+ soon enough.

[dogwalker] 28/5/2020 13:40

Carlsberg.

[john09] 28/5/2020 12:58

Yes its proving a great stock to follow

[neilyb675] 28/5/2020 12:51

Personally I have kept the ones I bought at 34p, but traded twice to gain additional shares. Been an exciting share the last week or so.

[john09] 28/5/2020 12:46

I have lost count of how many profitable ins and outs I've done here

[ny boy] 28/5/2020 12:12

2nd wave coming...onwards towards 100p, hic, open another Carlsberg
(SAGA) cranking up again after the breakout too!

[doc1975] 28/5/2020 12:09

Strummer - I am not going to be rude as that’s not fair. However, it would be so easy to put more people out of work, increase their chances of depression, mess up the life chances of the younger generation to lock the whole country down for longer. This emotive language is unreasonable, many people die of cancer every year from late stage diagnosis. Being unemployed is terrible for health long term. The higher risk people can still be protected to a certain extent whilst not destroying more lives. This is not a binary decision where you choose to save a life or not. This is a decision of choosing to marginally reduce the chances of catching the virus vs. Definitely wrecking the country’s finances and therefore long term funding of the health system. To just assume that people are horrible greedy selfish people because they have a different view is over the top. Everything has to be paid for, including modern health systems.

[poolies3] 28/5/2020 09:56

Well said Strummer
Kerp the country on Lockdown for at least a year
Ignore every other health issues
This is causing
Bankrupt the country
And if anyone wants to go for a social pint arrest them

[strummerjon] 28/5/2020 09:46

Sadly, there are too many people of his kind in this country. Someone so blinkered and desperate that they put 'going to the pub ' before any other consideration, including killing the elderly, the sick and the poor. Just a wild guess but probably an avid Brexiteer and a Tory voter too.