Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[neilyb675] 01/6/2020 08:31

64.85 - 65.50 (GBX) at 08:30:57
on Market (LSE)

[sif12] 01/6/2020 08:31

I cant find any data in terms of number of Martson's which has beer gardens? however having checked quite a few locations just as test, they all have outdoors spaces, infront and behind.. I think the point here is that Pub will be able to demonstrate access to a connected open space...

[sif12] 01/6/2020 08:28

Was having a decent discussion with a long term holder on LSE about prospects here and recession.

he mentioned that he thought the company was better placed to have not paid dividends and paid down the debt.. thats a really sensible point and actually one of the benefits as Ive previously mentioned of such a terrible occurrence as C19 is a review of operations and Strategy.. so maybe they suspend the divi for a couple of years further- that would be a great way to pay down the debt. That being said with the $273m, dont see the debt as too much of an issue. They may have the brewery assets transferred to the JV, but cash I believe is better right now.. and of course they still have a 40% share.

We also discussed possible recession and the Chancellor's words, which I believe were a poor choice of words.. id rather go with an informed organisation rather than a politician (hes ex Goldman Sach and asked his boss to come give him a hand!) Bank of England , suggesting last week a Vshapred recovery.. ie Q2 Q3 recession technically negative GDP but by Q4 back in the blue.

But the big thing is no second wave... opening up.. and a summer which starts with open spaces/ beer gardens but than moves to regular operations within 4-6 weeks, i think thats possible.

[sif12] 01/6/2020 00:04

More analysis of fill and kill than of MArs lol

So we can expect the Q1 results shortly, which will have about a week of lockdwon in them

But beyond that I think the big driver is Govt unveiling/ confirming further relaxation of lockdown..

If they are aiming for beginning of July to allow Pubs with outside space to open.. they will/ should notify at least a week before to provide time to prepare..

Lets hope the R keeps dropping

[thedustyone] 31/5/2020 22:09

Re-Fill or Kill Orders

I think that folks are mixing up "fill or Kill" with "limit" orders.

A fill or kill order is dealt with as soon as it is pick up by the dealer on the system. If the touch price is lower or equal to the set "fill or kill" price for the required volume of shares,it will be dealt immediately (i.e filled) at the touch price, if not (i.e if the price is higher) it will be killed and the funds returned to your account. Time wise, it depends on how many brokers are monitoring the platform and the number of orders in the queue. It could be 1, 5, 10 or 20 mins. I even had to call my broker last month when a fill or kill order had not been executed after more than 30mins which they attributed to remote working, however, in most normal instances, it is generally within 10mins.

A limit order on the other hand is different. With a limit order, you set the maximum price that you are prepared to pay for the stock and also the time frame that you are prepared to wait for the trade to take place. Most platforms have timelines of 1day, a month or three months (90days)validity for limit trades. Essentially, your funds remain tied up for the selected period if you are on the buy side until the stock is purchased. Similarly, if a limit price is used for a sale, the stock will not be sold until the price is achieved.

In theory, the rules on many platforms state that your limit price is not revealed to the market as that would be against the rules. These may have worked well 20 or more years ago. However, in the current era of automation and bots, my practical experience suggests that some platform providers or their bots may be trading against you knowing your set price so I never use limit prices to buy stock.

Also the fact that most online brokers hold your stock in nominee accounts, there have been allegations of stock lending from these accounts by the brokers ( to shorters) for which they get a fee and interest which is not really in the owners interest as you are on the long side. However, one of the ways of preventing your own stock from being lent out is to set a limit price for the sale of held stock. This will often be at a much higher price than current and for say 3months. That way, your own stock will not be lent out but because not enough people take this precaution, it is not always effective. You can of course always cancel the limit trade at any time and place the order yourself at the prevailing price.

All imho
DYOR

Dusty

[spartan attack] 31/5/2020 19:53

Im not sure tbh

is a lack of willing and/or easy money out there for this sector and take overs anyway

JV, not sure with who at the mo

[sif12] 31/5/2020 19:52

SA it could come from existing players or PE, so a bit hard to say. Has anyone shown any interest in Marston's before...?

[sif12] 31/5/2020 19:48

I think the JV may make it more appealing as you're now buying into the opportunity value of the relationship with Carlsberg. However, Im not sure how much money is slushing around at the mo, even with Private Equity.

I think it would be more likely that potential suitor, sees how things play out over the next 12 months, and on the basis that we're back to BAU next year and if Mars is still hovering around £1.. thats when the offer comes in.

[spartan attack] 31/5/2020 19:42

I am holding. And great if happens. I was just wondering who were the possibilities to go see if any activity underground there

[jeffian] 31/5/2020 19:37

#4096,

That's what I thought about EIG and GNK before private equity came along!

[john09] 31/5/2020 19:07

Good argument Jeffian.

Anyway I think we will be up tomorrow

[spartan attack] 31/5/2020 18:51

Who would buy it?

[jeffian] 31/5/2020 17:48

I think it makes it easier. The deal splits off Marstons' brewing assets into a separate company "Carlsberg Marston's Brewing Company ('CMBC')", in which it has a shareholding of 40%. Thus any bidder for Marstons would get the estate and this shareholding which can either be held as an investment, sold on to Carslberg so they own 100% or sold to a third party.

[john09] 31/5/2020 16:56

Given that the JV is agreed , any counter bid would be hostile and you’d expect to see shares getting bought up and a third party RNS . Can’t see it myself . Even worth this JV the shares will rise sharply in June i think

[septimus quaid] 31/5/2020 16:33

goodapple, I have been wondering the same myself. Once the Carlsberg deal is finalised, does it make a successful takeover bid for Marstons harder?

If so, the clock is ticking!

[goodapple] 31/5/2020 11:53

I did wonder whether the proposed Carlsberg venture, plus the fairly muted share price response might prompt a third party bid for Marstons. Maybe this story has further to run.

[spartan attack] 31/5/2020 10:03

Good point alan

I do that in essence on price alerts. Just prefer manual execution for a quick check on market at price first. In case some event occurred that wasnt dated, and still tanking the SP

[alan@bj] 31/5/2020 09:19

SA - the (potential) benefit is that you may get a better price. As you know, share prices fluctuate during the day, so if you think a share has risen but may drop back, set a fill or kill order at a lower price and you may get lucky and achieve that. If the price just keeps on rising though, you'll lose out.

[tim 3] 30/5/2020 23:47

Other than very recent buyers cant see many holders celebrating, they are still well out of pocket.

[spartan attack] 30/5/2020 21:45

Obviously a big account then to not pay full ask and actually get them to bargain

In the mortal world, its not that easy. haha

[assagai] 30/5/2020 20:57

As another old timer I would agree.probably best to place limit order and number of shares with a "good for today only" tag underpinned by a "will do part " proviso. That way you can't overpay, may not get all may not get any, but if you want to beat the price at least you are on the game.
Alternatively if you are sure they are a bargain and you definitely want them fix your quantity with a "deal at best" tag..
Personally in 40 years I have never bought online, always use a broker and let them bargain.very seldom have paid full ask.

[bashor] 30/5/2020 20:20

Fill or kill sounds like a simple limit order as I’d know it as an old timer

[spartan attack] 30/5/2020 20:17

Half year results wont matter much to market

They are after the full year in November, and imo, it will only rise to that time. They expect to thrash eps estimates and so forth now, big time

reckon price doubles between now and november (if no lock downs)

[spartan attack] 30/5/2020 20:13

Just use a tolerance level. Or maybe that wont work maybe because of various spreads etc, depending markets your in

MARS, its backed to the hilt . MOre important, they are not exiting and shorts staying