Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[lindowcross] 20/12/2018 15:48

You said there was a story: "Ten years ago 400p. today 90p. More pain to come in the sector" The truth is there was a four-for-one share split simply to increase liquidity of the stock. That's quite a different fact from that which you implied, namely, that the share price had dropped from 400p to today's price of around .91p because of problems with the company and pain in the sector. Be careful or you will mislead readers of this board who might get the wrong idea.

[janekane] 20/12/2018 15:40

Will there be another rights issue
If a companies assets are. £1.25 and trade in a range of 80p for a month then a hostile bidder can come in at 88p bid
Giving poor suffering shareholders a little consolation prize

[janekane] 20/12/2018 15:36

On the 9th January 2007 Mars had a share split of 4 shares for 1 at the time of this the shares were £4.60p after split £1.15p
I never said they were 400p

[lindowcross] 20/12/2018 15:24

er, no, it wasn't 400p 10 years ago: on the 30th October 2008 when i bought it was, .93p and then I note another purchase at 1.19p in December 2008. Admittedly diluted since then by rights issues, and placings. But it is now a very different company with a good quality estate, and selling beer to one in four of the nation's pubs. How on earth could it be taken over for £1.00 per share when Peel Hunt has it valued at 1.25p and City investors paid £1.20 I think it was in a recent placing? It's down now because the whole market is down and UK focused shares are down because of Brexit uncertainty. In fact Marstons is likely to benefit from Brexit as people stay in the UK and drink locally rather than going to the Med. A great buying opportunity for discerning investors.

[janekane] 20/12/2018 15:01

Pubmaster were taken over by punch taverns who had the same amortisation deals on its property portfolio set against these assets
In the end the interest paid could not be sustained and punch had to reorganise its debt with the cream being sold off as the bankers called in the loans
Punch now are a shell of there former self the bankers made fortunes fron change of use into housing from the sites that took over
The shareholders lost out big time in 2009 when punch had a£350000000 rights issue

[janekane] 20/12/2018 14:55

will ralph ask us for money via rights issue

[janekane] 20/12/2018 14:48

In the year 2001 pubmaster made a hostile bid of 513p a share cash offer for WD
Wolverhampton and Dudley brewery it was rejected 53% against previouse to this pubmaster formed a company called " pubmistress" in cahoots with West b ,Rotch and St Modwms property this was also rejected
The circle is now rounded again and as I said in a previouse post if this share price falls to 80p and it will then these 3 or any one of them st modem more likely will bid and win at around £1
Again as I've stated before the assets are in the amount of brewery sites and land banks we own
All these site are worth billions as residential planning is gained

[janekane] 20/12/2018 12:27

As much as this displeases me I have to agree

[quepassa] 20/12/2018 10:59

no.

it's telling you a story.

Ten years ago 400p. today 90p.

more pain to come in the sector.

marston's has been a play-toy for city institutions for too many years .

now the securitisation debt is really beginning to weigh heavily.



good luck all but my view is that this is going lower.

all imo. dyor.
qp

[lindowcross] 20/12/2018 10:22

the share price is a buying opportunity

[janekane] 20/12/2018 08:56

This share price is a disgrace for a company of this size
tHe debt incurred by these equity swaps securitisation is killing us if this gets to 80p then the hostile bidders will move in sell all the assets and leave us with sweet Fu@@all
Get real Ralph stand down let someone with a plan to get us back on track and get shot of these foot irons draining us drŷ

[lindowcross] 19/12/2018 15:33

I've owned Marstons now for over a decade. Throughout that time posters have fretted over the debt, the smoking ban, pub closures, changes in drinking habits, the financial crisis, whether or not the company should still be brewing in so many locations and so on, yet the company ploughs on increasing turnover, making a profit and paying a generous dividend. I think it'll continue to do so, whatever challenges lie around the corner. So I'll hold, maybe even buy a few more.

[septimus quaid] 17/12/2018 10:56

fair enough, although the shorter has other costs on top: dividend payment to lender, dealing spread, dealing costs

[cc2014] 17/12/2018 08:51

SQ. You said: There's no way that just shorting something can be a walk in the park. Shorting isn't "free", I heard recently that it costs 30% per annum to maintain a short.


Current financing rates for going short are around 2.5%.
Evidence here:

In my experience when trying to short HTB stocks say you put it, most of the time brokers will simply refuse. Of course how big a line you swing and how much money you dangle at them for doing so will influence the outcome.

[spacecake] 17/12/2018 08:26

Retailers retreating after online retailer ASOS trading statement.

[septimus quaid] 16/12/2018 11:27

...if a shorter is betting on a dividend cut, and this comes good, then they will benefit on two fronts:

reduced dividend payments to the lender
likely shareprice fall

[septimus quaid] 16/12/2018 10:11

I found this piece on Quora, seems that there are large variations in the net cost of shorting an individual stock (dealing, interest rates, negative-rebates, dividends, etc).

Although I imagine for an easily tradeable stock like Marstons, net costs would be at the lower end of the examples used.

The fees are either ETB (Easy to borrow) or HTB (Hard to borrow). There aren't any additional fees to use ETB stock (Well known stocks that most people own and are typically sold short) outside of margin interest - typically, but this can change from broker to broker. So if margin interest is 5% for example it's a simple annual interest calculation. For example, if you had $5k on margin for 1 week at 5% interest the calculation would be: $5,000 x 5% = $250 / 360 X 7 days or $4.86. The brokerage industry uses 360 days, not 365. You would then add in your commission expenses typically charged to buy or sell stock and sometimes a margin requirement fee, etc.

When trading HTB stock, brokers will charge as high as 20% interest (also called negative rebate, like what you see on your page) typically, so in this instance you would add 20% to the 5% number and calculate at 25%. I've heard of HTB fees being as high as 250–300% so definitely call and ask as these aren't always published or found easily, but IB does a great job of putting them right on the screen.

[exel] 16/12/2018 09:50

So, about 2% of MARS has been short sold? Is that such a big deal? Most adverts for providers of CFDs and similar products warn that 70% of their users of lose money. Guessing many may have done better in the current quarter? But markets will over-react in both directions, and can flip very quickly.

[ianian4] 15/12/2018 16:06

Septimus, There are many risks but it must pay off otherwise they would not have billions shorted.. Not sure how much the fee is, it will be confidential, but it will be a lot less that 30% per annum, more likely 2 to 5%. They will have to pay dividends however generally the share price falls by the dividend amount so that may not cost anything if the stock is bought back at a reduced price reflecting that.
The skill is in buying and selling continually to manipulate the price and keep it going down with the minimum sales and likewise buying back just enough gradually to keep the price down.

[septimus quaid] 15/12/2018 11:27

There's no way that just shorting something can be a walk in the park. Shorting isn't "free", I heard recently that it costs 30% per annum to maintain a short. All the time the shorter is running a considerable risk (e.g., a short squeeze in the event of a takeover approach, simply better company news or even a share suspension).

In the meantime, the lender of the stock collects a nice fat fee.

[janekane] 15/12/2018 09:21

Short update
12.6 million shares shorted at this time

[muffinhead] 14/12/2018 16:12

There will be piles epidemic in the next 10 years

[llef] 14/12/2018 11:39

uber eats will start delivering starbucks coffees in usa next year too..

Starbucks lowered its long-term earnings forecast at an investor meeting Thursday.
The company is partnering with Uber Eats to bring delivery to about a quarter of its U.S.-based, company-owned stores by the end of the second quarter.

[spacecake] 14/12/2018 10:52

Our high street has gone from being riddled with estate agents to coffee bars and pizza takeaways. Small food shops replaced with Tesco and Sainsbury mini markets, no butchers, fresh fish, or veg shops, hardware etc anymore. One of two bars closed, now again someone has a punt then it goes bust again.

I guess it's just evolution of the high street - what next coffee deliveries, it already happens in abu dhabi

[mr_spock] 14/12/2018 09:42

I think the difference between the retail/restaurant market and pubs and bars is that the number of pubs/bars has been falling for some time now, thus restricting capacity. General opinion is that there are too many restaurants, hence they are suffering. And the move online is hurting those retailers that don't have a good online presence.
MARS will suffer like anyone if there is a downturn but think they will do better than pure retailers and restaurants.