Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[spacecake] 14/12/2018 09:36

Because you can't buy a pint, cosy atmosphere and entertainment online?

They will be a boost to sales in December as the christmas parties get going, but January and February are not so good, back to the cosy armchair at home with Marstons bottles at a fraction of a pint in a bar.

Anyway, I had a recent bad experience at a pitcher and piano, ordered a half, got a pint then after correcting that they still charged me for a pint and give the change from a fiver when I had give them a tenner which they immediately corrected, this was in the afternoon when the place was only half full.

[jeffian] 14/12/2018 08:43

"Looking at the wider retail environment shops are struggling, shopping centre owners are struggling, why should pubs and bars be any different."

Because you can't buy a pint, cosy atmosphere and entertainment online?

[janekane] 14/12/2018 07:03

We have lots of land assets that at this time are sitting doing nothing
We could maximise these assets with planning applications for much needed homes
These actions could be a first step in reducing our debt
It's a fact the City are not happy with our debt
The share price reflects there concerns these current trading sub £1 could go even lower
They realise the dramatic effect a downturn will have on our ability to trade out of debt
RF needs to change direction or a preditor will take him out if we go lower than 80p
Asset strippers could make a fortune as us the minions get F-c-ed without the decency of a kiss before hand

[ianian4] 13/12/2018 17:44

There are potential problems with debt equity swaps, but are we looking at a downturn in revenue? That is guesswork, casual dining and drinking are cheap expenditures compared to vehicle company purchases and home makeovers. If the country is hit whatever, Brexit offers, this will not be the first to feel the draft.

[pherrom] 13/12/2018 17:36

The proposed final dividend of 4.8 pence per share provides a total dividend for the year of 7.5 pence per share. Dividend cover is 1.9 times and our dividend policy remains to target progressive increases in the dividend at a cover of around 2 times in the medium term.
(From the prelims.)

[exel] 13/12/2018 16:40

So, up very slightly on the day, bearing in mind this is now ex div by 4.8p. Next staging post being AGM update in jan19. I have 21/1/19 but will have to check that.

[quepassa] 13/12/2018 15:25

re 1138,

that's why my money is on a major equity raising in the ntdf. most likely a rights issue.

there's a lot more pain to come in my view in this sector.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[chinese investor] 13/12/2018 13:30

Ex-Div Payment

13 Dec 2018 28 Jan 2019 Final
23 May 2019 02 Jul 2019 Interim
12 Dec 2019 27 Jan 2020 Final
21 May 2020 03 Jul 2020 Interim
10 Dec 2020 25 Jan 2021 Final

[janekane] 13/12/2018 13:19

That should prove expensive in the long term
I'm still betting on the divi dropping 60% or to nil
The debt will kill us on any significant downturn in revenue

[essentialinvestor] 13/12/2018 12:56

Jane, that's the price you are paying for the high dividend?.
That's the way I would look at it.

[janekane] 13/12/2018 12:45

It would be prudent at the next meeting if RF was quizzed on who he works for

The share holders small or large who basicly own the company or the money lenders who make fortunes from the massive interest rates we are paying them

This company needs a change of direction and a massive one at that

If that means RF going so be it his debt equity swap is draining us dry

I'm betting the divi gets cut or stopped next results

[grahamburn] 13/12/2018 12:11

Definitively it IS ex-dividend today (record date tomorrow).... so drop is (probably) related to that, though market is general weak.

[careful] 13/12/2018 12:05

looked at the Marston financial calendar and it does not say.
the markdown at open today looked like ex divi.

[deanowls] 13/12/2018 11:59

No. It’s exdiv today. All stocks go ex div on Thursday. You had to be holding cob on Wednesday.

[janekane] 13/12/2018 11:49

So expect another. Drop of 4.8p tomorrow

[careful] 13/12/2018 08:14

is it ex divi today?

[dogwalker] 11/12/2018 11:38

It's worth saying that the IC can have differing views on the same stock at the same time, depending on an article's author. The one talked about & quoted here is Mr Bearbull's. Elsewhere in the same issue GNK is a 'buy'. MARS has been a consistent 'buy' for years. Can't remember why....

[the deacon] 11/12/2018 10:54

Here's the bit about MARS vs GNK ;From an income investor's perspective, Marston's (MARS) offers the best comparison with Greene King since none of the others is a high-yield stock. Neither Mitchells & Butlers (MAB) nor Ei Group(EIG) – the remnant of Enterprise Inns – pays a dividend, a situation not likely to change soon. Meanwhile, shares in Wetherspoon are so highly rated that, even if management decided to distribute half the group's likely earnings, they wouldn't qualify as high yield.Between Greene King and Marston's, I can only say I'm content that the income portfolio's holding is in the maker of Old Speckled Hen and Abbot Ale as opposed to the brewer of Banks's bitter and Marston's Pedigree (lest we forget, both groups still own in-house breweries). The extra dividend yield on offer from Marston's (see table) doesn't seem worth the risk.It's not just that Greene King claims to be growing its underlying sales at twice the rate of its rival. Chiefly – and whatever the bosses of Marston's protest – the company's dividend looks much the more threatened of the two. In the year just ended, Marston's generated just £20m of free cash flow – the money left over for shareholders after all claims have been met – yet paid out £48m in dividends.True, that shortfall was made good by the sale of surplus properties, as it has been in each of the past five years. It will also help that Marston's is committed to trimming its capital spending. The amount dipped 17 per cent to £163m in 2017-18 – although that's still four times the rate of depreciation – and will drop another £30m in the current year. Combine that with maybe a £30m-a-year gain in cash from cutting pension fund contributions and the dividend will probably be wrung out again this year.Even so, the impression remains that sustaining the payout is part of a process of self-immolation that Marston's could not sustain through the next serious downturn in trading.Greene King hardly presents a glowing contrast. Yet what we might now label its 'immolation rate' is much less than that of Marston's. During the past five years, in only one – 2016-17 – did its free cash exceed dividends paid and cumulatively in those years it has paid £418-worth of dividends against £300m of free cash. So, like Marston's, it has relied on selling fixed assets – of which, cumulatively, it has sold £420m-worth in the five years – although not to the same extent.

[olliemagern] 11/12/2018 09:45

Poor outlook already in the price at 97p they are on a p/e 6.9 and yield 7.7%. Buy.
GNK at 517p are p/e 8.7 yield 6.1%. Both expect 1% eps growth next year.

[quepassa] 11/12/2018 08:53

The pub business model is bust.

Beer drinking down.
Wages up.
Council rates/taxes far too high.
Cheap booze in supermarkets.
Food menu prices rocketing.

The prices the pubs now have to charge customers for beer and food to cover outgoings is driving customers away. And these customers are anyway increasingly happy to watch their affordable 75-inch ultra-high definition 4k TV's in the comfort of their own home for streaming sports and endless Netflix having bought cheaply an excellent six-pack of Czech Pilsener from Lidl.

It's armageddon for the traditional pub scene,just like for shops and department stores on the traditional High Street and for so many other restaurant chains which can't make ends meet any more and which have gone to the wall.

With the massive Marston's debt burden, combined with a very uncertain economic environment and rising interest rates, the omens in my opinion remain pretty damn unfavourable.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[spacecake] 11/12/2018 07:44

From applause no booze article ~ "Greene King’s biggest shortcoming is that it operates in the wrong industry"

An odd thing to write about a brewery and bar business, however Whitbread realised this very thing and successfully changed their business model.

Maybe it's time to get out of booze.

[pj fozzie] 10/12/2018 15:56

Guys, you can read the article if you google "applause no booze" and then select the cached copy of the link. This method often works for pay-to-access articles ;-)

Cheers,
PJ