Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[the deacon] 08/10/2018 13:29

Personally I'm happy to spread my pubco exposure between GNK and MARS. Establishments from both companies very busy around my neck of the woods, and am personally a big fan of their respective ales. Both dividends are decent too...

[quady] 08/10/2018 12:48

As I've said before, I understand sector sell offs happen, but not why GNK is more highly priced. MARS has been stronger over the last 18 months than GNK. No Spirit like issues or Loch Fyne problems. Today it's GNK is only 10% more expensive which is within error margin, but it has been 20%+ recently.

[cc2014] 08/10/2018 12:02

tbh the share price is puzzling me when I look at JDW, MAB, and GNK.

I don't know why it fell as far as 90 in the first place, but now I look at it at 100 I'm surprised there isn't more selling pressure. It seems to be comfortable around this level and has bounced from Friday close convincingly.

All of which would lead me to suggest the update looks good.

Anyone's guess really. At least some see value here.

[ny boy] 08/10/2018 07:28

Children 👶 now now, only a few days to go before the results and all will be relieved for further scrutiny 🙄

[ianian4] 07/10/2018 18:46

Anyway, what about that brewer Marston's. I think that is what this BB is about. Anybody got any thoughts that are not having a go at others posters.

[janekane] 07/10/2018 16:13

What's up seems to be attracting a bit of attention hope he /she can keep their dummy in the Pram
All imo dyor
LOL

[quepassa] 07/10/2018 11:48

now, now scurbs....

calm down and try not to get so tetchy


enjoy

and thank you once again for your efforts


all imo. dyor.
qp

[scburbs] 07/10/2018 11:26

Can i suggest a change to your post endings.

all imo. dyor cause I ain’t done none!

[quepassa] 07/10/2018 10:40

you are misguided.

thanks for your efforts anyway.

all imo. dyor.
qp

[scburbs] 07/10/2018 10:06

QP,

Don’t be silly the debt isn’t off balance sheet it is £791m of the debt on the group balance sheet. Lazy I say again, but this time no smiley face and probably a tad generous on my part!

[dinvester] 07/10/2018 00:12

Janekane

Full support from me.

İf only to keep this thread focussed on the real problem of no confidence.

Keep it up.

[janekane] 06/10/2018 16:30

1024
What's going on thinks your remiss
negligent, neglectful, irresponsible, careless, thoughtless, heedless, unthinking, unmindful, lax, slack, slipshod, lackadaisical, forgetful, inattentive, unheeding;
Please could you be more attentive
What's up will be very uptight
LOL

[quepassa] 06/10/2018 11:53

not lazy in any way.

like all the others, you have failed to understand the question. and in this respect you are quite remiss.

i am not -and never have been- after the Banking Covenants of the off balance-sheet special purpose /securitisation vehicle. Those are facile to locate.

i am after the Banking Covenants of Marston's PLC- the listed Company and main operating Group, not their off balance-sheet securitisation vehicle.



Thank you nonetheless for your efforts.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[spacecake] 06/10/2018 11:02

Wednesday 10th Oct 2018 trading statement - will double or triple pants be required and should I wear wellies ?

[scburbs] 06/10/2018 10:10

Hi QP,

Its a little lazy on your part :) given securitisation is a main heading on the website, but here you go:

hxxp://www.marstons.co.uk/docs/securitisation_debt/2018/covering-note-q2-2018.pdf

hxxp://www.marstons.co.uk/investors/securitisation/

The original offering circulars are at the bottom of the second link and the Q2 covering note sets out the numerical covenants. The financial covenant looks pretty comfortable. The restricted payment covenants are probably cash trap covenants rather than breaches and look a little closer, but the ratios do not appear to have moved in years (I believe they have various substitution rights enabling them to control the ratio to a certain extent).

[septimus quaid] 06/10/2018 07:58

I thought this thread had lost its way at one point but nice to see the return of informative debate

[quepassa] 06/10/2018 07:19

The debt figures are very confusing

1. depending on how you skin the cat- and
2. what you include or not - or
3 net off against the other items.


Either way, it is a great amount of debt against a weakening industry backdrop where Marston's remains heavily indebted at a time when wages, business rates and raw ingredients are all significantly increasing.

No-one has been able to spell out what exactly the debt/banking covenants are.
No-one has been able to offer a link to an official document giving the precise banking/debt covenant package.


In my opinion, this is not comfortable.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[janekane] 06/10/2018 06:51

1019 and 1020
Both good posts Thanks p

[stevefoster] 06/10/2018 01:36

JK (and others),

From a different part of the interim results (§8 "Net Debt"):

"Net debt 1,393.4[m]"

The numbers JK quotes are from §9 "Financial Instruments", where various items are adjusted for "fair value" (AIUI essentially the estimated value if the company had to "settle up" everything today).

As for ADVFN, for FY2017, they have picked up the statutory profit and EPS, but the underlying turnover. And on the net debt, instead of quoting from the published results, ADVFN's help page says they define their "net debt" figure as "all liabilities - cash & equivalents" - which for MARS is derived as (£440.4m + £1623.6m) - (£120m + £54.6m). This explains the difference between their figure and those actually reported.

Oh, and ADVFN still list the MARS website as wdb.co.uk (it does redirect to marstons.co.uk) - which has been wrong for probably a decade (the change of name was back in 2007!).

[ianian4] 05/10/2018 20:24

JK
Nice load of figures.
They may be right or they may be wrong. If they are wrong, it is buyer beware.
As for debt, they had the same debt when the share price was 50% higher. The experts thought that price was right at the time.
There is no way of knowing what the share price will be tomorrow, let alone in a year. When the update is out on Wednesday, it may hit 1.10 or sink to 90p. There is only one certainty and that is we will have no say in it and whatever you think, you could be surprised. My guess is 1.06 based on tea leaves. Let me see how that fares against the experts.