Labour is the final nail in the coffin for the uk, crime ridden, poor police enforcement levels. No wonder 10,000 multi millionaires have left the UK for more favorable jurisdictions. Grim, dark cold wet winters, gen z etc drinking a lot less, micro brewers going bust, clubs going bust, the UK economy faces very challenging times. |
 thanks for your comments fenners66
there were clealry other isuses at play there
that period and is in the past and non relevant - we have current broker forecasts - the budget with these announced changes was getting on from 3 monthns ago.
So whats your your explanation
do you not believe current forecasts factor in these knowns?
do you not believe forecasts will be met?
all that matters is what then expectations are for the year NOW and they are nothing like zero underrlying profits - they are forecast £51 mil net profit with £58 mill next year. completely different business to your "chosen 6 month period"
Note i would concede these costs are a challenge and i said as much - so if they come up slightly short ref current expectations well that wouldnt be a huge shock - but in the absence of downgrades i am ok with presuming that current forecasts as things stand personally - other may make discount for times being tough and thats fair enough.
You have ignoed my specific challenge do you not agree that if a company is making £50 mil profit after tax right here right now - referencing nil profits is simply of absolutely zero relevance and proves nothing and suggests you are concentraing on stuff withn no relevance to those that know the company will deliver profits and they should be at sufficient level for them to have some free cashflow to either invest or pay down debt.
can you please atleast accept that you agree current forecasts should factor in budget changes here - albeit the next trading update may resulty in changes up or down as thinsg become clearer ref year ahead? - in that regard i would 100% agree that downgrades are more likley than upgrades as things stand. |
rmillaree - Why did I pick a period from last year , that included an increase to the National Living wage , a period where they actually made a loss ?
Because it illustrates the point I was countering careful with.
Careful saying - just pass on the cost increases with a 1% price increase.
And legitimately my point is - if it was that easy , they would not have allowed the period last year to become a loss.
I have seen the argument put elsewhere , after all there are all kinds of businesses that will be paying more rates ,wages and NI from April. "So just add a few% to prices" they say.
Clearly for a discretionary spend business its not as easy as that. |
i think that we have to admit that chomping rates increases and chomping NI increases are material - its stupid to pretenf otehrwise if thatw say potentially 20% of profits.
ok everyone is in the same boat and prices can go up to compensate - spending at Martsons is possibly one of the most discretionary spending tupoes of all. So at some level of increase they lose tthe higehr sale. also all their suppliers will be pasing on their price increases too.
Hopefully marstons can cope and seems to be keeping its head above water - but to me there is no doubt that these are significant increases on top of the normal increase that will also be at play. |
What drink does...makes them feel good for a short while..
Wetherspoons attract masses of younger customers offering cut price booze and a lively ambience. Youngsters like to mix in crowds. |
I do think that a 1% hit from rates is not that significant.
As you suggest, pricing is important.
I know someone who ran pub that provided good food who told me that she could not put up prices because of the type of customer she served.
She would lose custom as the pub was not in an affluent area.
Only a few miles away there was another pub located in a more affluent area where tables were always booked despite being expensive.
Great food with a good reputation.
Wetherspoons attract masses of younger customers offering cut price booze and a lively ambience. Youngsters like to mix in crowds.
Good management has to get these things right. |
fenners
why on earth are you concentrating on h1 - they made £42 million underlying profit pre tax for year just finished. that figure is much more relevant than your selected stat which was back when debt was higher.
do you have as pecific agenda here or do you just take fun in taking numbers out of context.
can i challenge you specifically to speculate on how much underlying pre tax profit they will make this year - this year matters much more than your "selected 6 month period" when debt was much higher |
I specifically used their interpretation of "underlying losses" - you know the figures that ignore all the ignorable one off losses...
But lets keep on track - you were advising Marston's of how easy it would be to get the rates hit back by putting up prices , nothing to do with capital , debt or interest rates. |
As for 'losses' when a asset rich company is disposing of assets, it is often the difference between the official balance sheet value of the asset and the cash selling price.
Losses reduce tax and is sometimes good financial engineering.
As Sir ArnoldWeinstock once said, he wanted to see the cash position and would investigate the finer details of that. The rest can be fiddled.
I am optimistic about Marston, but none of us know the full picture. |
come come fenner, I disagree with you, am no genius.
Yes these trading statements do not mean too much.
Operational profit is not profit.
We need to look at the whole picture.
With an improving debt situation and the disposal selected non performing outlets, hopefully cheaper debt is possible.
As to consumer habits, I think the UK has become polarised. Many well off older people are doing very well and enjoy dining out. Some pubs are doing better by offering quality food at the right price in the right atmosphere.
Not as price sensitive as it used to be.
Post Covid the airlines are also booming, so many travelling abroad.
People like quality and are prepared to pay fair prices.
I have noticed that both quality and prises have increased.
There is great potential with Marston if they get it right, the share price is depressed. A` market cap of £254 says it all, worst case scenario. |
Careful - what a utopian world you have invented for yourself.
Perhaps you should be CEO of Marstons as you clearly know better.
Half year 2024 Marstons "underlying" that's the part of the results where they ignore all the "bad bits"
was an amazing ....
drum roll please....
Negative 0.1% !
A LOSS of £600k.
Yet your simple answer was "put up prices by 1%" - Wow , brilliant , why didn't they think of that ?
Clearly in your simple world that would have had near £4m profit
Genius.
I don't suppose the idea that pushing up prices by 1% may lead to reduced demand by more than 1% has occurred to you ?
So passing on the rates £8m and the Wages and NI cost - what ? £12m ? easy in your world huh?
How then would you do it ?
Change all the prices by 2% ?
Every £9.99 menu item becomes £10.19 perhaps ?
Reprint all the menus - oops you added some cost there.... (lots of it for 1300 outlets)
Changed all the till software etc ..
Or perhaps just pick some products to pick up the tab maybe just beer to save a reprint ?
Then we get to Wetherspoon's 20p a pint. Oh that may cut sales....
In summary its not simple to pass on 1% of sales to recoup losses - if it was they would not have been making losses in the first place ! |
1400 pubs x 5625 rates rise = £7.9m
an extra £8m is not welcome but not that important with £900m turnover.
Pricing power is key.
Need to put up prices by 1% |
The real World
Business rates are set to rise more than 140 per cent for thousands of high street businesses across the UK in yet another cost pressure for brick-and-mortar businesses.
The average pub will also see its rates bill go up from £4,017 to £9,642 a year, Colliers found, while nightclubs – already under significant pressure – will see their annual bills rise from £7,479 to £18,245.
+NIC hit
That’s why investors are going to keep a watching brief, only sizable interest rates cuts will help but unlikely at present, wage growth ahead of expectations @ 6%, so a slow down is required with job layoffs, before any meaningful cuts.
Labour is at the helm 🚨🤦🏻♀;️🤡 |
Marston’s toasts ‘solid’ quarter despite weather woes
Pub operator hails strong trading over Christmas amid a sales slowdown brought on by two cold and stormy months
Marston’s became the latest pub company to toast “particularly strong” trading over Christmas even as it conceded that dismal weather caused sales growth to slow in the first quarter.
The Wolverhampton-based pub operator cheered a “solid” quarter, with like-for-like sales up 11.1 per cent over the key trading weeks from December 22 to January 4.
Justin Platt, who left Merlin Entertainments to take charge of the 1,334-strong pub chain last year, said: “We are excited for the year ahead as we build on this performance through the successful execution of our refocused strategy, driving revenue through event-driven marketing and the rollout of our differentiated pub formats.”
Strong trading over Christmas lifted Marston’s like-for-like sales by 2 per cent in the 16 weeks to January 18.
However, this compared with growth of 8.1 per cent in the first quarter of the previous year. Marston’s blamed the slowdown in sales growth on the impact of cold and stormy weather in November and January. Shares in the company, which have risen by more than 20 per cent in the past 12 months, were down 1½p, or 3.2 per cent, to 41p by lunchtime in London.
Analysts at JP Morgan said they believed Marston’s had been “arguably more impacted” than Mitchells & Butlers, which also saw sales growth slow in the first quarter as cold weather kept customers at home, due to its greater exposure in Wales, Scotland and northern England where storms were more severe.
Analysts at Peel Hunt expect like-for-like sales to be second-half weighted, partly because of softer comparatives but also thanks to initiatives that management announced at its capital markets day.
Marston’s, formerly Wolverhampton & Dudley Breweries, employs 10,000 people. It effectively quit brewing in 2020 when it sold its beer business to a joint venture with Carlsberg, retaining a minority stake of 40 per cent. In July Marston’s announced it had agreed to sell the stake for £206 million.
Marston’s reassured that it is “well placed” to deliver a financial performance in line with expectations this year. Consensus among analysts is that the company will deliver underlying pre-tax profit of £68.3 million. |
Shore Capital toasts a potential rerating at Marston’s
Marston’s (MARS) Marston’s management team have made a confident start to hitting new financial targets, which could pave the way for a rerating, according to Shore Capital.
Analyst Greg Johnson retained his ‘buy’ recommendation on the Citywire Elite Companies + rated brewing and pub group, which was trading down 4% on Tuesday at 40.6p but is still up 22% over 12 months.
At its capital market day last year, the group set out financial targets for revenue to continue growing above the market, ongoing margin expansion, and underlying recurring free cashflow of at least £50m a year.
‘Extrapolating forward five years, delivery of these financial targets, including 3-4% annual revenue growth, coupled with lower interest, earnings per share could build towards 15p,’ said Johnson.
‘Our current and medium-term estimates are set more conservatively, although we are encouraged by the progress being made against targets.’
The shares currently trade on a forward full-year 2025 price-to-earnings ratio of 5 times, an enterprise/Ebitda of 6 times, and a free cashflow yield in the mid-teens.
‘With balance sheet metrics improving, and increasing optionality, successfully executing on its strategy, we would expect to see the shares rerate,’ said Johnson. |
NY Boy.
The estate is 83% Freehold!
If you're going to carry on de-ramping, at least get your facts right. |
Platt seemed pretty chipper at the AGM.. then again I'd be smiling on his salary |
London is over crowded...and I don't mean just traffic... |
Investors are not buying, not when owners are going to take a bit hit on the numbers with these extra staffing costs, it’s huge, Labour’s zany policies they will bankrupt the UK
I was speaking to a guy than runs a large fast food chain he was anticipating making 2.5M,now his money people have said that will be down to 300k. Its catastrophic
Wake up uk, is uninvestable thousands of millionaires have left or leaving soon, hardly anyone of note will list in London anymore.
London can’t compete with the huge international demand in UAE, Saudia etc. |
Weare told this morning that they remain well placed to meet market consensus of underlying PBT of £ 68. 3m for the current 24/25 FY.
I note that in the last 23/24 FY they had
Underlying PBT from continuing operations of £42.1m. This suggests a 50+% increase. I use the word suggests as we are not told if the £68.3m figure is from continuing operations.
A 2% increase in LFL sales in the first 16 weeks does not suggest an increase in profitability given the rise in costs there would have been and am thus confused of any suggestion of a big profit increase in this 24/25FY. |
What a dreadful market reaction.
Markets hard to read. |
pre tax (operational) will be £68m
market cap. £268m
asset per share north of 100p.
the share price is far too low.
ridiculous, hang in there this must be re rated. |
"We remain well placed to deliver FY25 market expectations and the guidance set out at our October 2024 Capital Markets Day." |
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