Manx Financial Share Discussion Threads

[clocktower] 16/9/2024 11:27

Maybe it was to try to shake down a few that the share price dropped back for a few mins.

The MM be getting short, and I guess it might soon take off.

[sooty snipes] 16/9/2024 11:09

Got to be a distressed seller or something like that. Why on earth would you sell on todays news?

[clocktower] 16/9/2024 11:07

I read the news a short time ago and saw this is being paid for with cash from current resources.

However, I am puzzeled why it has not jumped up ?

Why would there be a big seller in the market at this price?

[devonlad] 16/9/2024 10:36

Seems that point has arrived Smithie!

[smithie6] 16/9/2024 09:56

..fingers crossed that at some time the MM will run out of shares on his book to sell

or anyone doing a big sell in the background will run out of shares to sell or decide to stop selling.

~400k shares bt today & it looks like not even 1 reported sell (but perhaps 1 in the background not yet reported ?)

[devonlad] 16/9/2024 09:41

Well it is on a pe of 3 which is crazy so as long as they have stayed the same, still crazy, if they have gone up, even more crazy. Market can be irrational though!

[smithie6] 16/9/2024 09:37

PAT for MFX (with 1/2 of PA ltd) in '23 was £5.3m

this acquisition of the 2nd half of PA Ltd increases the PAT by ~£0.9m I think. (PA Ltd pbt was £2.3m in '23 I think).

That is an increase in MFX PAT of ~+20% due to this RNS.

How is the rest of MFX doing ?
we wait to see but that MFX is able to give out £5m cash infers that it is doing ok & has produced profits which help pay this & that it meets the various banking deposit & liquidity ratios.
So, I get the feeling that MFX must have performed at least OK in H1. If H1 had been terrible then imo MFX wouldn't be giving out of its accounts £5m.

-----

If MFX PAT is now 5.3 + 0.9 (for 2nd half of PA Ltd)
= £6.2m

cap. value is ~£19m

p/e is 19/6.2
= only 3.1 !

While, sure, we wait to see very soon the H1 results to see the real profit numbers in '24.

[stewy_18] 16/9/2024 09:35

Strange reaction to excellent news

[smithie6] 16/9/2024 09:26

a line of buys have gone thru, with no reported sales

I think we might have a delayed reported sale in the background or the MM had a chunk of shares still on his books which are supplying these buy trades.

[devonlad] 16/9/2024 09:25

Bit odd it hasn't moved up more, they must have some down the back of the sofa, added quite a few today.

[smithie6] 16/9/2024 09:23

"This is massive news as yet not fully appreciated by the market"

indeed

instant ~£1m/year increase to the annual PAT for MFX, based on '23 numbers, it might now be higher in '24.

======

The PA Ltd business must be doing at least OK otherwise MFX wouldn't be coughing up £5m more (it didn't have to invest even £1 more), and early. (the option to buy the 2nd half was/is an option, it didn't have to be used/exercised).

[castleford tiger] 16/9/2024 08:59

This is massive news as yet not fully appreciated by the market.

From sept we have all the profit made by PA so 2/3rds of the second half.

.
My 10 m PBT could be achieved as soon as year ending 25.

Tiger

[smithie6] 16/9/2024 08:47

congrats to Tiger
..I think you bt a good amount recently at ~15.5p
& with a bit of luck that buying price might hit 17.5p today/tomorrow, 2p higher than what you paid only 1-3 days ago.

I picked up a few, but not so many since there seemed to be so many clouds at 15-15.5p.

[smithie6] 16/9/2024 08:43

btw
I did post that the acquisition of the 2nd half of PA Ltd could take place in advance of the planned date of 2026.

..interesting to see it actually happen.

(& that "any" of the conditions could be changed, as long as all parties signed their agreement)

[smithie6] 16/9/2024 08:41

..well, Tiger posted about the cap. value looking too low wrt the NAV.

Looks like a very valid observation.
And with this spend of £5m the total spend to acquire PA Ltd has been ~ £4.4m +5m - divi received, ~£1m ?
giving a total of ~£8.8m

say £9m versus a cap. value for MFX of £19m
so, excluding PA Ltd, the rest of MFX is valued at only £10m !....lower imo than the TNAV in the last accounts.

------

spending £9m to get a PBT increase of £2.3m seems a good investment.

[devonlad] 16/9/2024 08:16

Now expecting that results might just be better than expected, good news for MFX, should rise a lot further on this given volume. Unless the seller comes back that is!

[smithie6] 16/9/2024 08:03

interesting...

[che7win] 16/9/2024 06:09

Nice RNS, remaining acquisition of PAL

[devonlad] 13/9/2024 15:03

A few more buys smithie and we will find out, looks like they have cleared anyway!

[smithie6] 13/9/2024 14:10

MMs

gotta luv 'em

official spread had been 15.0-15.5p, 1/2p spread

now 15.5-17p. 1.5p spread


has the seller finished ?
(& sodded off !! je je)

[devonlad] 13/9/2024 12:03

Dunno Smithie, maybe it is just a Friday thing, maybe the seller has fnisished. MFX is pretty illiquid, it wont take much buying with no seller now to move this back to a more realist price.

[kaos3] 13/9/2024 11:37

smithie6 - i read it the same way but

hxxps://sharinbox.societegenerale.com/en/shareholders/understanding-the-shareholding/

...Once your buy order has been executed, you will receive a notice of the book-entry of your shares ....

same for selling probably.... until the order is finished ... one does not get notification ... so he or she does not know and can not report

i have seen similar sitations before. we got tr1 rns once orders were finished.

i do not know exactly ... and it is not that important - financial authorities are looking like a hawks

[nakedmolerat] 13/9/2024 10:53

volume moving up this morning and i'm in for the run up to 27th

[nick rubens] 13/9/2024 10:26

I picked up a few during this sudden plunge and hope there isn't any serious issue ahead. Can never tell what's happening though unnecessary fear has meant I've missed out on bargains before. Interim's coming up should bring some clarity or simply confirm the optimism of the finals previously.

[devonlad] 13/9/2024 10:02

.... and the seller isn't smashing it down, could they have cleared, they always do, eventually!