Manx Financial Share Discussion Threads

[smithie6] 26/3/2024 12:58

Ah ha.

Note ~32
PA ltd
Loans to customers, at the instant of 31 Dec.
( this is for 100% of PA Ltd)

2022 = £9.8m
2023 = £16.0m

Growth = 16.0- 9.8 = £6.2m
As a %
6.2/9.8= 63%.

That is high growth.
Which surely increases the value of the 1/2 of PA ltd owned by MFX.

:-)

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PA profitability
Revenue £10.8m
PAT £1.7m

% = 1.7/£10.8
= 16%

.....just need to step & repeat & grow the revenue again in 2024, & 2025 &.....

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Profit , after tax.
£1.7m total (100% of PA ltd) in 2023. ~£850k of that attributable to MFX for owning 1/2.

(~£520k increase in profit in '23 vs '22 for the 1/2 owned by MFX, due to owning for 12 months instead of ~3months. Probably some one off costs existed in PA Ltd accounts in 2022 such as legal & related costs due to MFX buying 50.1% of the co.)

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How much will/would PA Ltd be worth if by 2027 if the PAT is >= £2.5m averaged over the years '24, '25 & '26 ?
PA Ltd needs to continue to grow to achieve that average of £2.5m pat.
The market likes profitable growth & gives it a higher p/e.
MFX would have to pay £5m to buy the remaining 49.9% of PA ltd.

£25m ? If give a p/e of 10.
Not so far from the valuation for "all" of MFX, £30m at 26p !!
And current £30m cap value is also notably below the MFX nett assets, £36m.
And shares look forward. In one year's time if we assume that assets increase by >=£6m than NAT = 36+6= £42m (36p/share) versus a current market cap of £30m.
And in 2 yrs time, >£48m. (If market cap rose to the same value it would be (undiluted)
48/116

= 41p/share.

Noting that that is pessimistic since it assumes no increase in PAT in '24 or '25.
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Makes MFX still look underpriced even after the recent rise in share price.

[stewy_18] 26/3/2024 12:28

Not a huge amount of volume gone through today.

[smithie6] 26/3/2024 10:39

Interesting
MFX has lent £10m to Lesley Stephen & Co Limited to help that co. fund it's growth in , I assume, lending. MFX was given a 10% stake in LSC in return, with also 2 warrants to buy 5% of LSC for each warrant to increase the % held above 10%.
LSC must have an attractive proposition since MFX only received a tiny 10% of LSC in return for a big amount of funding, £10m. (At PIML , MFX received a 30% shareholding for much lower funding)

Be interesting to find out what LSC does....& turnover & profit etc.

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The funding to Pay It Monthly Ltd has increased from ~£1.5m to ~£2.5m. So one assumes that trade is up at PIML. (Their website to sign up new borrowers is quite pleasant imo, with a nice style & drawn human characters). MFX owns 30% of PIML if my memory is correct.

[castleford tiger] 26/3/2024 09:49

April i was told maybe @david can update us.

I personally would of thought after the AGM statement but i might be wrong

tiger

[smithie6] 26/3/2024 08:59

Well, I expect that the financial tipster/writer Simon Cawkwell will mention MFX in the coming hours/days. He holds a chunk.

& MFX is going to present at a Mello event I think.

Tiger, is there a date for that ?

[sooty snipes] 26/3/2024 08:34

sooty snipes - 22 Mar 2024 - 08:34:44 - 2029 of 2073
Throwing my two pennyworth in. My average is 17p. When I recently invested I had a short term target of 30p. Wouldn't surprise me to see us hit that within the next couple of weeks. I have a long term target of 60/80p. I plan to hold unless something materially changes. If not I see no reason for selling
------------------------------
Happy days! Can't believe you bought some earlier at 24p Tiger Well done all holders.

[lennonsalive] 26/3/2024 08:28

I am a holder in both TIME & MFX, so happy days this morning

[stewy_18] 26/3/2024 08:27

Smithie, When I see PAL's turnover is £10.8 million up from £10.1 million, I don't see the 66% growth. What am I missing here?

[smithie6] 26/3/2024 08:20

Target price ?

If some tipster agrees with my eps prediction of 7p for 2024 (as calculated in earlier post) and prints it, or a similar number

Then 6x 7p = 42p.

8 X 7p = 56p.

All depends what p/e the mkt gives the share.
With the growth that has been delivered & is being delivered then the p/e needs to increase imo. Should not be a p/e of 6 for example.

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If anyone wants to buy just 1% of this company, imo impossible <30p, no one will be selling imo. And few sellers 30-35p imo.

[che7win] 26/3/2024 08:15

Can't get a quote to buy more.....

[smithie6] 26/3/2024 08:13

Congrats to all shareholders, including me :-) & those of us holding a lot of shares, including me !

[martincc] 26/3/2024 08:10

only managed to add 2000 at 25p better than nothing

[castleford tiger] 26/3/2024 08:10

the market are lost
dont know what to do

[smithie6] 26/3/2024 08:08

Well done buying at 24p
..probably the last shares, ever, at 24p !

[castleford tiger] 26/3/2024 08:06

lol that moved them.

now nothing to buy and 23.70 bid

[smithie6] 26/3/2024 08:06

....I would be very interested to see the share price if Simon Thompson or Simon Cawkwell printed my eps expectation of 7p for 2024 (~1/4 of 2024 has happened).

:-)

Simon Caukwell holds a chunk of MFX shares. Who knows, perhaps he was the buyer of the sizeable buy trades over the last 7 days.
I am sure that we will see a comment from him either today or in the coming days.

[castleford tiger] 26/3/2024 08:03

just bought what i can at 24p............5000 possibly 10k

they are bonkers

[castleford tiger] 26/3/2024 07:57

opening price anyone?

[clocktower] 26/3/2024 07:54

MM are going to be caught with their pants down. 🤣

[smithie6] 26/3/2024 07:47

(with owning 50.1% of PA Ltd. ;-) )

2023. Total comprehensive EPS= 4.9p
H1 2023 comp. EPS =1.7p

So
2023 H2 total comp. EPS = 4.9- 1.7p = 3.2p !!

Ah ha !!

2 X H2 = 2 X 3.2p = 6.4p
Up from 4.9p for 2023.

So, 2024 prediction has to be at least 6.4p eps.
If just 10% higher profit rate than H2, for the whole year, then you get 7p eps (6.4p + 0.6) prediction for 2024 !!
Up from 4.9p eps for 2023.

+43% up from 2023 !! for 2024.

Prediction for 2024, vs 2023, 'if' can repeat the good performance of H2 2023 & then add just 10% PAT growth (surely not too difficult).

[kaos3] 26/3/2024 07:42

what i mean is - the general valuation of the eu fin is well bellow book. it is bellow 50 pc bellow book i think. it is about the change coming regardless of the operator

but

wtfdik

like cars... sharing, EV etc

[kaos3] 26/3/2024 07:37

a gem. the only problem to me after observing it for months is that they are into financing. general premis of financing will always remain but the whole concept of how is just about to change imho

superb performance

they are a consolidator in the lower end where competition of sofisticated is lower, so much more opp in front of them

.... buffett is not going into fin as much.... a change looming... coming from the tech /cbcd/ and inflation and regulation /basel/ and and

all just in my gardeners opinion

[castleford tiger] 26/3/2024 07:33

7 X HISTORIC gets us to 32.5p