Manx Financial Share Discussion Threads

[smithie6] 13/9/2024 09:43

as Devonlad wrote

"Hold onto your seats, MFX is blue!"

!!!

[smithie6] 13/9/2024 09:41

kaos3
"as long as selling continues one has not to report"

that is not correct imo

if one goes thru a reporting reqt. % (such as 3.000% ) then one is supposed to report it.

(but noting that on occasion some ppl or entities do not report as reqd to. ; a higher risk for breaking the reporting reqts are ppl/entities in distant tax havens (& MFX has some (2 at >3% ?) big holders with offshore addresses, some Caribbean islands), wheeler/dealers outside of the UK etc.

[devonlad] 13/9/2024 08:32

Hold onto your seats, MFX is blue!

[kaos3] 12/9/2024 05:12

is that not so, that one has report the holding reduction when he is finished selling - if one has more than 3 pc and is obliged to report. as long as selling continues one has not to report

and MMs do not have to report for up to 10 pc

and some foreign entities have different reporting consequences

but financial services are special. regulators are clearly looking at it - double controlled and regulated

[castleford tiger] 11/9/2024 21:06

Devon she has over a million
It’s related parties so even the kids count

[gears] 11/9/2024 17:02

Looks like another 200000 @ 14.5 late on.

[devonlad] 11/9/2024 09:28

Buy some in your wifes name CT! Buyer about today funnily enough.

[castleford tiger] 11/9/2024 07:44

1.1 million shares is 1%

I think at least 2 million have been sold in the latest push down.

No reduction in holding says that its someone under the 3% reporting limit.

I find it baffling that you would dip out now ( unless its a forced sale or an estate winding up)
The p/e is about 3 and you are selling at half NAV with a further increase coming later this month.

I bought over 500,000 more in this push down and i am stuck now as i dont want to have to report by going over 3%.

Its a strange world but lack of a forecast and news does not help

tiger

[smithie6] 11/9/2024 07:05

I guess that as a % of the co. it is no big deal, it's just that normally this share is fairly illiquid so 1% is a lot to shift. Whereas at a FTSE company perhaps offloading 1% of the co. might not hit the share price very much (or would it, 1% of NatWest group or BT would be a lot of money).

(Natwest group.
average daily volume of ~15 million shares (£45-50 million !) is ~0.2 % of the company. 0.1% being sold & 0.1% being bought. So, at Nat West, to offload 1% of the co. could take 33 trading days if the seller's trades were 1/3rd of the daily sells, to try to avoid pushing the price down too hard.
So, perhaps at any company selling ~1% of the company can take some time & is a risk for moving the price down. (often big sellers or buyers wait to a day with an important RNS where the volume is notably higher, or contact other big holders to see if they want to buy a chunk of shares, at MFX just before H1 results one assumes that no big holder wants to add 1% of the co.)

[castleford tiger] 10/9/2024 20:47

It could be someone under 3% as this seller has sold more than 1% now and no RNS

[smithie6] 10/9/2024 18:39

...trade showing, delayed reported trade

from 10:30

175k shares sold at 14.571p

if it is the same seller, he just doesn't stop !!

[smithie6] 10/9/2024 09:16

a sell trade late yesterday

250k shares at 14.5p

if it is the seller that has made other sells recently including the 500k sell, they have been unloading a fair number of shares,
..& with MFX being illiquid the share price has fallen

----
MM still doing ok out of it
buying 250k shares yesterday at 14.5p & sell them today at 15.5p. 1p/share profit (7%), if he can shift them all.

if anyone wants to buy, & pay a smaller spread, just put in a limit order at 15p & wait, & see if the MM takes it.

[devonlad] 10/9/2024 09:08

Highly illiquid but a pe of 3? That's in the buy zone, Shirley!

[kaos3] 09/9/2024 16:28

i see major selling regardless of supposed value among other quality stocks i hold

i guess it is market related. preparing liquidity i suspect. unfortunately

[smithie6] 09/9/2024 16:25

...risks with any share...

bank shares are obviously geared.
a small change in the data for bad debts can boost the reported profit, or do the opposite. There is a downside risk, of course. And looking back one can recall what happened to Northern Rock, Bank of Scotland etc, Bankia in Spain, Banco Popular, Caixa de Catalunya etc. And was it Lehman Brothers in the USA.

But MFX has had a ok/good track record I think for bad debts for at least 10 years now so hopefully all running ok in '24. Bad debt % for IoM borrowers for MFX is especially low I recall the accounts reporting.

And since getting a UK banking licence I assume they have to monitor/supervise liquidity ratios etc & risks even more. And the bod is big & costly imo & lots of experience there.
There has been a big % increase in the total size of the loan book in '23 & in the last 5 years; hopefully the high growth is all to solid quality borrowers.

[devonlad] 09/9/2024 14:12

It's on a pe of just over 3 (I think) so the downside is really limited unless they have had a major balls up! Any growth would help to clear out the obvious seller and move this forward, but I guess that management have disappointed in the past, hence the low pe. A basic view on things from the uneducated?

[smithie6] 09/9/2024 12:23

the MM

takes shares of pers. A at 14.p & 15.0p & moves some them X minutes later on the same day at 15.9p

15.9p- 14.5= 1.4p
~10%

if the MM can re-sell all the shares he bt, then his weekly of monthly % is very impressive, if can make 10% in X minutes
...while, sure, he is exposed to risk, & at some share if it drops 20% at the open then he loses money on the shares he holds.

[castleford tiger] 09/9/2024 12:04

3 lots of 25k.......

Price is crazy maybe they are desperate.

tiger

[nick rubens] 09/9/2024 11:20

Hardly a big sell, but importantly wasn't offered more than 14.5p. Amazing how such small volume can impact mkt value here and it's a banking stock that just seems to have very little interest daily and hence such low volume of trades.

[smithie6] 09/9/2024 10:46

Mr Seller is back

his last sell, 25k shares at

...14.5p !!! :-0

[devonlad] 06/9/2024 13:04

Thanks all, have picked up a few today.

[stewy_18] 06/9/2024 11:51

Around 20th Sept

[smithie6] 06/9/2024 07:43

...I agree...

..& definitely that PAL is the interesting bit

but even for that the numbers are very opaque ...perhaps because some of the PA lending was administered by MFX & not by PA....perhaps the preference is that it is opaque to keep the competition guessing....

(in the last accounts the profit for PA jumped (in part due to cost cutting, a one off, the dirs' nice leased cars went etc etc) while its turnover stayed about the same...while we believed its lending rose a lot....
How did PA Ltd do in H1....we wait to find out with the MFX results. But the planned expansion in to other sectors has clearly not happened, based on the PA Ltd website).

[stewy_18] 06/9/2024 05:24

I would really like them to lay out a 5 year strategy with a focus on PAL and explain very clearly where they want to be in 5 years time and how they want to get there.

I'm invested here because of PAL. Honestly looking at the shareprice before the PAL acquisition I'm not interested in that kind of performance. I can take my money else where. There are no shortage of opportunities.

Management really have to start pulling their fingers out regarding communication and investor relations. It really is not acceptable.