Manchester & London Inve... Share Discussion Threads

[takeiteasy] 18/12/2024 15:43

Well done to the team NAV at 914. Excludes days decent NVDA bounce worth a bit more we hope.

Getting closer again to the ATH NAV earlier in the year. Phew back on track we hope :)

nai/dyor et

[takeiteasy] 18/12/2024 09:31

Finally, someone likes our micron holding :)

hxxps://uk.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/wolfe-bullish-on-mu-and-nvda-shares-sees-outperformance-in-semis-93CH-3841480

nai etc

[takeiteasy] 18/12/2024 09:26

The biggest miss of all time was on this stock - mentioned our manager's twitter feed as the next big thing a few weeks back and read this chart and weep up 700 percent and still climbing...thought was this is too early to get into this quantum stuff :)



nai etc

[shavian] 18/12/2024 09:14

Thanks for all your great posts TIE, please keep em coming. Our managers antipathy towards Musk and his avoidance of PLTR and SOFI have cost us a bit this month, so I'm glad I trimmed back MLN a few weeks back. TSLA and SOFI have been roaring on, and my guru Felix Prehn has reason to believe this will continue. Take a look at this:https://youtu.be/Gicr803mr5Q?si=j_hauBs_i-4mCvB2

[takeiteasy] 18/12/2024 08:06

decent update on MSFT :)
nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 18/12/2024 06:20

We have now had a decent double pull back both in MNL and NVDA our largest holding. On the positive side you can make a hypothetial case that our holding here in MNL is being valued at a 2025 NVDA FWD PE of 16-17 (104/6).

Cramer in video sees NVDA earnings for 2025 at $6 and 20% discount based on MNL NAV discount NVDA $130 share price is $104.

This is just an illustration of one possible scenario amongst many others and no advice intended of course and dyor etc

Context - "The estimated P/E Ratio for United Kingdom Stock Market is 16.05, calculated on 17 December 2024"

[takeiteasy] 17/12/2024 16:53

New Jetson Computer for AI Applications

In a separate development, Nvidia introduced a new $249 version of its Jetson computer for AI applications to attract hobbyists, students, and small businesses. Jetson devices act as portable AI processors that allow robots, industrial automation, and other hardware to run advanced AI computations locally without relying on remote data centers. With this move, Nvidia is looking to make AI development more accessible to those who are not its usual big-budget customers. Interestingly, despite U.S. restrictions on advanced hardware sales in China, Nvidia confirmed the Jetson products would still be available there through local distributors, ensuring a broader reach for its new offering.


hxxps://www.tipranks.com/news/nvidia-nvda-falls-as-investors-grow-worried-about-ai-spending-slowdown?mod=mw_quote_news

nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 17/12/2024 05:37

In the past month when QQQ is up 8% our 37% holding of NVDA is down 6% and the only MAG7 losing money - quite remarkable change from earlier this year when NVDA was a front runner.

hxxps://x.com/sstrazza/status/1868748780860023148/photo/1 - we now sit at 131 dollars on a final line of support before the next level below of 118 - will be very interesting to watch if this level can hold at all :)

discount here remains in 20-25% range...rough estimates...


nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 16/12/2024 19:46

https://www.investors.com/news/technology/nvidia-stock-sell-zone-power-chip-overheating-issue/nvidia being hammered through multiplesuupport zones for various MSM negativity all but negating the melt up in broadcom holding up about 10 pc again :)this extreme bearish noise can only be sustained by so many stories I suspect and hope ?nai dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 16/12/2024 13:40

this trust feels like it has been put to sleep for Christmas :) nai dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 15/12/2024 15:45

hxxps://x.com/MLCapMan/status/1866165960970731805 no NVDA slowdown our manager tweets...we may not get much buying interest in NVDA (or MNL by inference for that matter) until Blackwell rollout next year so in the interim the MSM sound bites are in full flow to direct some decent short term NVDA price swings it seems to cause havoc with the leveraged long short dated option traders ...

hxxps://www.nextplatform.com/2024/12/13/how-long-before-broadcom-makes-more-ai-compute-engines-than-nvidia/





LTBHs here not being option traders I imagine see all this as noise?

nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 14/12/2024 08:12

"we have learnt over past 2 weeks AI infratructure spending investing will grow faster for longer..Broadcom's guidance for growth at 61% per year"

nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 14/12/2024 07:31

Given our laser focus in MNL on agentic AI, this is arguably an important update for the portfolio...from PCT Dec'24 results

The key to unlocking this much larger opportunity (and a key point on the journey to artificial general intelligence, or AGI) rests on continued AI model and silicon improvement. To this end, recent LLM releases from Meta (Llama-3) and Anthropic (Claude 3.5) suggest that all-important scaling laws continue to hold. However, the release of OpenAI's o1 model in September was a more important moment for AI as an advanced implementation of 'chain-of-thought' reasoning.

This enables the model to perform human-like multi-step reasoning; by breaking down complex tasks into manageable steps ('thinking' about the question), o1 significantly outperforms GPT-4o on most reasoning-heavy tasks and exceeds human PhD-level performance on a benchmark of physics, biology and chemistry problems. According to Sequoia, the o1 model has "opened up an entire new plane for scaling compute" - the more inference time compute given to the model, the better it reasons.

Reasoning is a necessary precondition for agentic AI, widely considered to be the next iteration of AI, where systems have agency to autonomously plan, make decisions and execute tasks with minimal human intervention.



nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 13/12/2024 15:05

Broadcom now up around 22%, micron and Arista both up around 4% and fabless semi index up over 4%...slightly better day then for MNL :) nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 13/12/2024 13:33

At the bid price our trust discount is back to pretty much the highest I can ever recall at c.23% rough estimate. BG USA by comparison sits at about a 2% premium. Some here seem quite untroubled by this I do accept....

[takeiteasy] 13/12/2024 13:23

On SMT board some were jumping up and down with angst when NVDA was up to 7 or 8 percent as making this too risky a position size. It has since been pulled right back I note - each manager will have their own risk process and appetite I accept.
I do support the general direction of the AI thesis employed as a LTBH for me.
I have removed the post and will leave it there.

[iminterested] 13/12/2024 11:08

I think that we should let the manager do his job which is MANAGE, outside of that if we wish to do the same, then build your own basket of AI stocks, quite honestly, I think anyone who wishes to commentate must like M Sheppard state categorically how MUCH they have invested in MNL, outside of that, I who have a significant holding am happy to stick with their theses.

[takeiteasy] 13/12/2024 10:38

Arista, Google and Broadcom all hit ATHs this morning :) nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 12/12/2024 07:00

"ChatGPT has hit the mainstream. Sam Altman, OpenAI’s CEO, said on December 4 that the company’s technology was reaching 300 million active users each week. On Wednesday, Apple released new versions of its software for the iPhone, iPad and Mac that bring integrations with ChatGPT".

In theory all incremental revenue for MSFT Azure hosting chatgpt :) nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 12/12/2024 05:13

Our manager very recently:" We see the AI revolution occurring in 4 stages. Stage 1 is the development of the hardware and infrastructure, Stage 2 is moving data to the cloud and organising it so that AI agents can operate on that data. ..We have always cautioned that stage 3, which is the monetisation of AI applications, may take longer"

We need to be patient "stage 1" investors imvho - we know AMD's GPU chip is only recently being scaled up and NVDA's blackwell is rolling out globally from early 2025. MNL is following a strict process through to a conclusion over the years ahead.

Our "stage 2" names include MSFT and Google. Google offering is in the early phase of roll out - video blog demo imvho is simply jaw dropping
blog.google/technology/google-deepmind/google-gemini-ai-update-december-2024/#project-astra

MSFT offering
www.techradar.com/pro/microsoft-unveils-a-whole-host-of-new-ai-agents-to-solve-even-your-trickiest-business-problems
also hxxps://glassalmanac.com/copilot-becomes-a-game-changer-in-microsoft-365/
e.g. New AI Copilot Browser Agent video imvho is equally jaw dropping
hxxps://www.geeky-gadgets.com/microsoft-copilot-vision/

MSFT is the main investor in OpenAI/chatGPT4 which is now embedded across their offerings - it is only hosted on MSFT servers so MSFT charge if any other cloud wants to access it for their clients.

So I see there are two very exciting stage 2 alternatives we are investing in both having their unique moats - the results of these developments should show up in 2025 results.

None of this is intended as advice, more to explain why we are where we are. I.e. as the penny drops the investors may return to MNL...just check the share price response to the google AI news this week.

nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 11/12/2024 19:51

To demonstrate a very simple point, cutting edge AI functionality appears to be where monitisation is possible from AI LLM models that otherwise are arguably being commoditised...

OpenAI has announced a new subscription tier for its ChatGPT service, ChatGPT Pro. According to OpenAI, the Pro plan is meant for “power users” who want the best of the best, and as a result, it comes with a hefty price tag. ChatGPT Pro costs $200 per month, ten times more expensive than the existing Plus plan, which costs $20 per month.

windowsreport.com/openais-new-chatgpt-pro-is-one-of-the-most-expensive-ai-models-on-the-market-right-now/
nai/dyor etc