Manchester & London Inve... Share Discussion Threads

[takeiteasy] 12/12/2024 07:00

"ChatGPT has hit the mainstream. Sam Altman, OpenAI’s CEO, said on December 4 that the company’s technology was reaching 300 million active users each week. On Wednesday, Apple released new versions of its software for the iPhone, iPad and Mac that bring integrations with ChatGPT".

In theory all incremental revenue for MSFT Azure hosting chatgpt :) nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 12/12/2024 05:13

Our manager very recently:" We see the AI revolution occurring in 4 stages. Stage 1 is the development of the hardware and infrastructure, Stage 2 is moving data to the cloud and organising it so that AI agents can operate on that data. ..We have always cautioned that stage 3, which is the monetisation of AI applications, may take longer"

We need to be patient "stage 1" investors imvho - we know AMD's GPU chip is only recently being scaled up and NVDA's blackwell is rolling out globally from early 2025. MNL is following a strict process through to a conclusion over the years ahead.

Our "stage 2" names include MSFT and Google. Google offering is in the early phase of roll out - video blog demo imvho is simply jaw dropping
blog.google/technology/google-deepmind/google-gemini-ai-update-december-2024/#project-astra

MSFT offering
www.techradar.com/pro/microsoft-unveils-a-whole-host-of-new-ai-agents-to-solve-even-your-trickiest-business-problems
also hxxps://glassalmanac.com/copilot-becomes-a-game-changer-in-microsoft-365/
e.g. New AI Copilot Browser Agent video imvho is equally jaw dropping
hxxps://www.geeky-gadgets.com/microsoft-copilot-vision/

MSFT is the main investor in OpenAI/chatGPT4 which is now embedded across their offerings - it is only hosted on MSFT servers so MSFT charge if any other cloud wants to access it for their clients.

So I see there are two very exciting stage 2 alternatives we are investing in both having their unique moats - the results of these developments should show up in 2025 results.

None of this is intended as advice, more to explain why we are where we are. I.e. as the penny drops the investors may return to MNL...just check the share price response to the google AI news this week.

nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 11/12/2024 19:51

To demonstrate a very simple point, cutting edge AI functionality appears to be where monitisation is possible from AI LLM models that otherwise are arguably being commoditised...

OpenAI has announced a new subscription tier for its ChatGPT service, ChatGPT Pro. According to OpenAI, the Pro plan is meant for “power users” who want the best of the best, and as a result, it comes with a hefty price tag. ChatGPT Pro costs $200 per month, ten times more expensive than the existing Plus plan, which costs $20 per month.

windowsreport.com/openais-new-chatgpt-pro-is-one-of-the-most-expensive-ai-models-on-the-market-right-now/
nai/dyor etc

[dickiehhh] 11/12/2024 19:39

Share seems weirdly unreactive to the recent momentum in the mag sevenDiscount presents a bargain imv

[takeiteasy] 11/12/2024 18:45

This seems a fairly timely update on the how the big players are moving quickly to establish end user functionality as LLMs become more commoditised.

I am unlcear how Amazon will compete with Google/MSFT on this basis and so an argument why we do not hold here I guess.....



nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 11/12/2024 18:36

In the Trump 2.0 world of the mega high flying Tesla/Palantir/SpaceX/Applovin (and all the other high flying low operating margin software names that our manager dislikes), our little MNL puts out a c.19% discount on the NAV today with another c.2.5% rise for change on top today (estimated) and we have the brakes locked solid.

If only Biden had come to power...just imagine we might have got back to 2nd gear even :)

nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 10/12/2024 07:27

ATT tech trust results out today. We share the same 6 of the top 10 holdings: NVDA, Broadcom, Arista, Micron, Google and Microsoft showing a surprising degree of commonality (btw same applies with Polar tech trust too) :)

ATT rationale on health of AI sector:

"While some investors are concerned about the return on investment associated with such rapid growth (and remarkable absolute dollar numbers), these are well-funded, high-ROIC (return on invested capital) businesses with billions of users. As such, we take confidence in their clear excitement and willingness to invest in AI at scale. The early indications regarding the return on the increased spend are positive. Since the end of 2022 (ChatGPT launched November 2022), aggregate hyperscaler capex has risen by $93bn while their aggregate cloud revenue backlog has increased by $184bn, according to Jefferies. Even more remarkably, OpenAI recently revealed it expects sales to increase from $3.7bn this year to $11.6bn in 2025.

This growth trajectory reflects consumer AI adoption that has been fast and furious. A Wharton study on 800 US enterprises found weekly AI usage among business leaders surged from 37% to 72%; Perplexity - an AI-powered Answer Engine and potential Google disruptor - disclosed it is now serving 100 million search queries a week, equivalent to c400 million per month, up from 250 million monthly queries in July. Likewise, OpenAI weekly active users jumped from 200 million in August to 250 million in September".

The report also includes a detailed risk assessment as we do....and is worth a read?

nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 10/12/2024 05:56

The other question Oracle results begs is why is our manager reducing our Oracle holding on valuation grounds (Nov fact sheet update) if all is so rosy on cloud growth. One answer emerging is that cloud power, speed and cost may not be enough for the ultimate cloud competitive edge in medium/long term.

From a separate article:
“Oracle needs to start telling a broader story about how integrated apps running on the same infrastructure can deliver better decision-making insights and stronger foundations for AI,” Wettemann said.

Our fund is positioned for now that MSFT (c.24% holding) is assumed to have the capability to provide this in a way Amazon and Oracle will not. So there is very close attention being paid to how the AI agents functions in MSFT are delivering agentic performance vs. competition.

Whether you agree with the positioning of the fund (or not), it is at least for me as a layman starting to become a little clearer why this is being done...nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 10/12/2024 05:43

Oracle and Tesla XAI are betting everything that GPU power, scale and efficiency and NVDA Blackwell AI inferencing chips /NVDA CUDA AI software combination will help them thrive in a very competitive market.

Q. Does this mean that every cloud provider in the globe needs to "roll over" too and move to Blackwell to existentially survive in the new AI landscape?

If yes, then there is a possible rationale for a portfolio tilted to 38% in NVDA given the scale of cashflow/margin implications.

Oracle last night:
"We just extended our AI performance advantage by delivering the largest and fastest AI supercomputer in the world, scaling up to 65,000 Nvidia H200 GPUs....The Oracle Cloud trains dozens of AI models and embeds hundreds of AI agents in cloud applications...Growth in the AI segment of our infrastructure business was extraordinary I expect fiscal year 2025 capex will be double what it was in fiscal year FY '24"

hxxps://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2024/12/09/oracle-orcl-q2-2025-earnings-call-transcript/


"Elon Musk's AI company, xAI, is set to expand its Colossus supercomputer to over one million GPUs, reports the Financial Times. Thus, the expanded Colossus machine will be one of the most powerful supercomputers in the world. However, it will require significant investments, supply, and infrastructure availability. Colossus, which is used to train the large language model behind Grok, already operates over 100,000 H100 processors from Nvidia and is set to double the number of GPUs shortly to become the largest supercomputer in a single building".
hxxps://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/technology/elon-musk-plans-to-scale-the-xai-supercomputer-to-a-million-gpus-currently-at-over-100000-h100-gpus-and-counting/ar-AA1vl9nQ .

nai/dyor etc

[shavian] 09/12/2024 09:08

I'm still here, although I trimmed back 2 weeks ago to widen exposure to META and AMZN. I also took profits on 50% of PLTR on Friday to increase exposure to SOFI, which is much less highly valued. I can't see PLTR galloping much further until earnings catch up with the price. NAI/DYOR etc

[takeiteasy] 09/12/2024 06:59

Q. which is the most expensive AI stock?

"Wall Street expects Nvidia's adjusted earnings to grow 50% over the next year, and the stock currently trades at 52.7 times adjusted earnings. Those numbers give a price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio slightly above 1. Listed below are PEG ratios (calculated in exactly the same manner) for other popular AI stocks:

Alphabet: 1.6
Amazon: 1.7
Apple: 3.5
Meta Platforms: 1.8
Microsoft: 3.9
Palantir: 6.2"

Theglobeandmail.com nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 09/12/2024 06:50

hxxps://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/nvidia-partner-ooredoo-eyes-data-center-acquisitions-amid-ai-push-ceo-says-interview-a2956cf0

"Qatari telecom group Ooredoo is on a hunt to acquire data centers because it can’t build them fast enough to house Nvidia’s NVDA intelligence chips, its chief executive said...." lols...nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 08/12/2024 21:24

hxxps://doceo.tv/insights/news/big-picture-interview-manchester-and-londons-mark-sheppard-on-investing-in/

Interview with our manager....nai/dyor etc

[h1a3] 08/12/2024 17:25

I am still here and following the thread closely, all very helpful and encouraging. Thanks all, especially takeiteasy.

[robow] 07/12/2024 15:18

still here

[takeiteasy] 07/12/2024 09:25

Bullish fact sheet out yesterday based on 54% performance 2024 YTD vs benchmark of 12% (FTSE 100 index by comparison grew by 12% over past 5 years)

November fact sheet extract: "Market Update - So far, 2024 has been a great year for us culminating in winning Citywire’s Best Global Equities Trust. As we keep saying, 2025 needs to see the effectiveness of enterprise agentic Ai proven...."

Just watched a staggering video that showed how AI is providing golf exercise routines to the best golfers in the planet by identifying specific muscle strength/weakness tests and using a library of LLM data experience to confirm which order to strengthen which muscle groups. The sports exercise coach admits worry at the end that AI is pretty much outdoing much of his long years of experience and might make his role less needed...

nai/dyor etc

[magli] 06/12/2024 17:35

All the trades are showing incorrectly !

[takeiteasy] 06/12/2024 15:16

MSFT has been a dreadful MAG7 laggard share price wise 2024 YTD - hot helping our cause when 25% of the portfolio. The share price has just broken upwards out of a range held for many months.

So why? Can it be that the excitement over AI agents being launched by OpenAI and Salesforce has made people think again about where MSFT sits competitively in this area?

. Business Tech: Microsoft quietly assembles the largest AI agent ecosystem
Microsoft has steadily established the largest enterprise AI agent ecosystem, with more than 100,000 organizations creating or refining AI agents using its Copilot Studio since its launch. This achievement positions Microsoft as a leader in one of the most dynamic and closely observed segments of enterprise technology. “That’s a lot faster than we thought, and it’s a lot faster than any other kind of cutting edge technology we’ve released,” Charles Lamanna, Microsoft’s executive responsible for the company’s agent vision, told said. “And that was like a 2x growth in just a quarter.” (Source: Venture Beat)



This must have been a very frustrating hold this year for our manager as it has taken seemingly a while now for the market to "catch up" on what is happening in the coporate MSFT AI agent arena :)

nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 05/12/2024 12:28

On top of the prior c.20% discount the fund went up from my guesstimates by c.2-3 pc yesterday.

That size of discount is some going for a large cap US tech portfolio that is c.60-70% MAG7 is it not :) nai/dyor....

[rogerbridge] 05/12/2024 08:44

Are you in any other funds, takeiteasy?

[takeiteasy] 05/12/2024 05:48

My wife/I had a really good chat with an AI agent last night borrowing a phone from a friend who pays £20/month for AI bot agent services using a specific LLM.

Truly astonishing level of dialogue and ability to respond.

By no means perfect - e.g. slow to adapt to certain more technical questions but level of sophistication at this early stage is jaw dropping. The world has changed for ever imvho...nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 05/12/2024 05:41

Interesting video I thought from a CEO of an AI development company reviewing industry opportunities including a "drop the mic" moment of a clip around 9 minutes into the video...

"NVIDIA's Jensen Huang just dropped a bombshell at the AI Summit Japan - artificial intelligence isn't just disrupting tech, it's transforming EVERY industry into a $100 trillion opportunity".

Her precis is that AI is 100X larger than we thought :)

nai/dyor etc