Manchester & London Inve... Share Discussion Threads

[takeiteasy] 21/11/2024 08:59

"The first is moving from coding that runs on CPUs to machine learning that creates neural networks that runs on GPUs. And that fundamental shift from coding to machine learning is widespread at this point. There are no companies who are not going to do machine learning. And so, machine learning is also what enables generative AI.

And so, on the one hand, the first thing that's happening is $1 trillion worth of computing systems and data centers around the world is now being modernized for machine learning"

again from NVDA cc, is this an IT evolution or revolution globally underway with a $1trillion TAM ? - dyor /nai etc

[takeiteasy] 21/11/2024 08:52

"NVIDIA Hopper demand is exceptional, and sequentially, NVIDIA H200 sales increased significantly to double-digit billions, the fastest prod ramp in our company's history. ....

Alongside significant growth from our large CSPs, NVIDIA GPU regional cloud revenue jumped year on year as North America, India, and Asia Pacific regions ramped NVIDIA Cloud instances and sovereign cloud build-outs. ....

Consumer Internet revenue more than doubled year on year as companies scaled their NVIDIA Hopper infrastructure to support next-generation AI models training, multimodal, and agentic AI, deep learning recommender engines, and generative AI inference and content creation workloads. ...

NVIDIA is the largest inference platform in the world. Our upcoming release of NVIDIA NIM will boost Hopper inference performance by an additional 2.4x."

The 18% discount seems to imply that they story is proving very hard to fathom...is it really? wdik etc nai etc

[shavian] 21/11/2024 08:32

And we still get to buy in at a discount of 18%!

[shavian] 21/11/2024 08:28

https://youtu.be/8y78QolHi9M?si=rUMddtiA0WcvmSFMAnd another thoughtful analysis from Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management. Any pullback on perceived supply chain weakness should be seen as a further buying opportunity. As ever, DYOR, NAI

[scottishfield] 21/11/2024 08:05

Yes, excellent. And well done MNL

[takeiteasy] 21/11/2024 07:06

"NVIDIA has done it again with its Q3 earnings report, smashing expectations and setting records. With revenue growth nearing 95%, margins widening, and earnings soaring 111%, this might be NVIDIA's most impressive performance yet. MarketBeat analyst Thomas Hughes breaks down the key details, including insights on the data center boom, the Blackwell chip launch, and what’s driving NVIDIA’s persistent upgrade cycle".

hxxps://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/11/42102642/nvidia-delivered-jaw-dropping-q3-earnings-says-dan-ives-this-is-the-fourth-revolution-playing-out-in-front-of-our-eyes

What Happened: Wedbush Securities Managing Director Dan Ives described the results as a “jaw-dropper,” emphasizing the transformative potential of the company’s AI technology. “This is the fourth revolution playing out in front of our eyes,” Ives told CNN, highlighting the broader implications for the tech sector.



nai/dyor etc....

[takeiteasy] 19/11/2024 06:51

you can access this for free on your mobile -I have started playing around with it to better understand the new tech!

[takeiteasy] 19/11/2024 06:27

Part of the reason I understand now strategically for such a high percentage shareholding c.24% in MSFT is that they are at the forefront of applying AI agents into daily processes. E,g,



I suppose we will all at some point need to try these out on our desk tops and gain confidence in the new technology :) nai/dyor etc

hxxps://www.msn.com/en-in/money/news/ai-agents-explained-why-openai-google-and-microsoft-are-building-smarter-ai-agents/ar-AA1u4D4M

Being autonomous is the name of the game here. AI agents are self-directed, capable of making their own decisions based on given human instructions by carrying out tasks like scheduling meetings or managing emails – without the need for constant human intervention. This is in stark contrast to AI chatbots like ChatGPT or Gemini that rely on constant user prompts to generate responses, where they lack the ability to initiate actions on their own independently.

[takeiteasy] 19/11/2024 06:11

AI Agents are The Future - Here’s Why

1/7 What’s the difference between AI Agents, Chatbots, and Sentries?
The marker of a true AI agent is in the name - it has agency, allowing it to act autonomously.

They’re not to be confused with:
💬 Chatbots: Designed for back-and-forth Q&A. They respond to inquiries but don’t take action beyond conversation.

📈 Sentries: Observers that monitor specific data or activity and alert us when something needs attention, like security triggers or anomaly detection.

🧠 Instead, AI Agents are autonomous systems that not only perceive and understand the world but can act and make decisions by themselves. They go beyond responses to actually performing tasks on our behalf.

courtesy of a post on twitter....if anyone reads our manager's twitter feed he now refers to his excitement over AI agents...so it may be important to start following this trend ....nai.dyor etc

explains different between LLMs and AI agents...brave new world...thisI think is the utopia that is behind the billions of investment from hyperscalers...this area seems to get very little attention from the general press atm and I am not sure is understood much at all in the general public....again the challenge of investing at the very forefront of technology change etc etc

[takeiteasy] 16/11/2024 17:03

Our single outtright semi short position ADI down 9% this month, so ironically we should be pleased with this drop :)

nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 14/11/2024 18:50

agree, nice close - I think key parts of the market are slowly getting a better understanding of the magnitude of these IT changes...hence these constant analyst updates - e.g. example below....

hxxps://uk.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/hsbc-lifts-nvidia-stock-pt-expecting-upside-from-datacentre-momentum-93CH-3792231

On Thursday, HSBC (LON:HSBA) analyst increased the price target on shares of NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) to $200 from the previous $145, while maintaining a Buy rating on the stock. The adjustment comes as NVIDIA's market capitalization nears a staggering $3.6 trillion, marking the highest in the world. HSBC's remarks highlighted NVIDIA's continued growth, particularly noting the potential in the data center sector that he believes is not yet fully reflected in the market price.

According to the analyst, NVIDIA has overcome a previous obstacle in August and has made adjustments to its 2025 AI GPU roadmap. Additionally, concerns regarding the Blackwell supply chain have diminished.
The revised forecasts for NVIDIA's data center sales and earnings per share (EPS) for fiscal year 2026 are 48% and 49% above the consensus estimates, respectively. These projections are supported by increasing capital expenditure momentum from hyperscalers for the year 2025.

48% uplift over consensus seems extraordinary to me :)

nai/dyor etc

[iminterested] 14/11/2024 18:25

watched and can testify that its very watchable to ordinary but interested people,in actual fact the interviewers and Jensen, always start with a an explanation of the question, so inference which I would naturally skip over, I now know is training for example. This means that as well as understanding more about Nvidia I got a tutorial from some pretty pretty smart people, too. Good Close today.

[takeiteasy] 14/11/2024 18:14

Our manager on Twitter suggested this interview with NVDA CEO was essential viewing. I can see why having watched it just now. He addresses a load of points including why NVDA is not going to crash like Cisco did all those years ago.

The biggest take away for me is if the globe accepts this vision of IT infrastructure much of the software world as we know it may well be fundamentally disrupted beyond our imagination.

For those who are only interested in the business model rather than the techy stuff, an interesting question was posed at 37 minutes in - "is there any way you see any issues in NVDA taking more of the AI TAM and a sales level 2 or 3 times where we are now"...answer "No" from Jason.

No wonder our manager wants everyone to grasp this understanding as it supports his view of being reluctant to invest heavily into the application software side eg Adobe etc (he mentions specifically).

I am slowly catching up with this logic...if others have got therre before me...well done!



nai/dyor etc

[robow] 14/11/2024 17:10

thanks for your imput takeiteasy

[takeiteasy] 14/11/2024 15:52

www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/asml-stock-climbs-the-company-that-tanked-the-chip-sector-is-now-boosting-it/ar-AA1u4SPT

ASML Holding was climbing Thursday as the chipmaking machinery company said it wasn’t cutting its long-term targets. It’s a relief for the semiconductor sector after ASML’s sales warning last month tanked chip stocks.

ASML provides tools for chip manufacturers such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Intel, and Samsung Electronics. Its near-monopoly on the most advanced chipmaking machinery makes it a bellwether for the semiconductor industry.

nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 14/11/2024 15:49

"Nvidia shareholders have little to fear from Google's custom AI chips....Even so, Nvidia GPUs remain the gold standard. In fact, several analysts estimate the company has as much as 80% to 95% market share in AI accelerators. That means Google has yet to dent Nvidia's dominance, despite trying for a decade...For instance, Joseph Moore at Morgan Stanley recently wrote, "In general, the market tends to underestimate the difficulty of competing with Nvidia, especially as they have moved to an annual product cadence." Similarly, Toshiya Hari at Goldman Sachs recently wrote, "We believe Nvidia will remain the de facto industry standard for the foreseeable future given its competitive advantage that spans hardware and software capabilities."

Beyond software, Nvidia has another important competitive advantage in its vertical integration. The company complements its GPUs with adjacent data center hardware, including CPUs, interconnects, and networking equipment. That comprehensive approach lets Nvidia build data center systems with the "lowest total cost of ownership," according to CEO Jensen Huang.

www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/NVDA/pressreleases/29573343/nvidia-stock-investors-just-got-great-news-from-amazon-and-google/
nai/dyor

[takeiteasy] 13/11/2024 17:47

hxxps://mailchi.mp/mlcapman/oct2024

hxxps://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/industry-ai-predictions-2025/

vs.

www.trustnet.com/news/13428726/a-managers-dilemma-is-nvidia-the-next-cisco
....he admitted, as not owning Nvidia has had the greatest negative impact on the trust over the past year. “When calculating the combina..tion of percent declines and position size, the worst active contributor for us was not holding Nvidia. That cost our relative performance quite a lot,” ....
Question: why have some/many of the UK IIs struggled to understand the IT industry changes afoot -
per the blogs above?
Is maybe also linked to the low level of demand for MNL shares with our oversize NVDA weighted approach...being at the vanguard you live with the hope that the understanding may start to broaden out etc etc

nai/dyor etc

[scottishfield] 13/11/2024 17:34

Tks takeiteasy. I see the newsletter in my inbox& will read it this evening. Agree the sentiment however.

[takeiteasy] 13/11/2024 17:28

My words are how I have reflected on our manager's comments in the latest fact sheet about everyone phoning him up and moaning about the spreads and discounts etc!

"Europe’s economy, to most logical observers, is clearly doomed. However, it is worth noting that a key Rubicon was crossed in the month with a UK government which has taken an aggressive stance against personal savings and against personal investment. As we have stated before, it is mostly a myth that valuations drive markets; it is monetary flows that move markets. It seems inevitable that the inflows into UK Equities will wither further. As such valuations may drop and liquidity may dry up. For Investment Trusts, ceteris paribus, that means larger discounts and wider Market Maker spreads. So please don't email us asking why WE have allowed this to happen and what we are going to do about it. We are not in the business of coup d’etats. Besides, we will be far too busy filling in evermore bureaucratic forms. The conclusion is clear, you may decide to live in a country that gets relatively weaker but you must surely invest in Technologically Advanced countries that get relatively stronger"

[takeiteasy] 13/11/2024 17:24

The unaudited fully diluted net asset value per share (including income and excluding shares held in treasury) was 603.1p as at 02 January 2024.

The unaudited fully diluted net asset value per share (including income and excluding shares held in treasury) was 915.2p as at 12 November 2024.

Before we all stress out too much over the wide spreads, stock selections, diversification, poor liquidity, lack of daily pricing and discounts the bare facts are we have had a NAV return 2024 YTD of 52% plus 3% of income as we had an extra dividend.

In the global sector on Morningstar there is simply no other investment that comes within a mile of this and this is after from what I recall something like a 50-70pc return in the prior year.

This has come with a level of volatility that has been stomach wrenching and many I suspect have been forced out never to return?

It all comes down to whether you want to drive an M2 BMW or series 3 1.6 diesel - one may have higher performance but comes with a ton of other compromises and only suits a very limited audience. I have come to accept you do not get this level of return without a number of offsetting compromises....:) nai etc

[iminterested] 13/11/2024 15:14

Discount to nav -17% ?

[bigwadds] 13/11/2024 14:59

915p NAV vs Share Price of 760p = 155p "difference" = 17% discount to NAV

IMO, this is far too high. The Average discount to NAV always used to be between 5% and 15%?


No advice given.