Manchester & London Inve... Share Discussion Threads

[shavian] 25/10/2024 15:05

So glad I gritted my teeth and did not sell TSLA when I had to slim down in July. I know our manager does not hold TSLA, but I wonder if that is more to do with is view of Musk than the business fundamentals which are starting to come good in spades.

[takeiteasy] 24/10/2024 10:58

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lam-research-nasdaq-lrcx-q3-202527763.htmlalthough we do not own lam microchip stock, some skittishness post poor ASML forecasts last week- so this nice outcome last night may calm some nerves around chip market?nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 24/10/2024 09:20

AI juggernauts roll on....nai/dyor etc

The South Korean chip giant is a key supplier to Nvidia and has benefitted from a boom in artificial intelligence servers.

SK Hynix said in its earnings release Thursday that demand for AI memory, particularly from data center customers, continued to be strong in the third quarter, allowing it to expand sales of premium products such as HBM.

[takeiteasy] 23/10/2024 14:16

NAV up just under 5% over the week with the discount back up at c22%...nai etc

[takeiteasy] 22/10/2024 11:19

Interesting 3m quid trade posted today traded late yesterday - this may be a reason for the strange recent trading of huge spreads and poor liquidity if this was some form of stock overhang for the market...let's see if more normality returns to the discount and spreads here :)

[iminterested] 21/10/2024 10:59

For your info: I have been in receipt of quite extensive research from other hedge fund managers withe respects to F1 and the research is strongly biased to F1 Liberty being cheap, so an investment by MNL is a thumbs up by ME. In short the TV rights once renegotiated will be very positive and that was before Netflix bought 10 year rights to WWE.

[takeiteasy] 21/10/2024 10:24

stock picking skills might be argued to be essential here and the argument against an all chip ETF like SMH vs. MNL...

(Bloomberg) -- There’s a growing divide in the $530 billion semiconductor industry between the companies that are riding the artificial intelligence wave and those that aren’t. And looking at the early returns from this earnings season, that gulf could soon widen into an abyss.


“Without AI, the market would be very sad,” Christophe Fouquet, chief executive of ASML Holding NV, said last week on a conference call after the Dutch chip production equipment maker cut its sales forecast for 2025 due to sluggish demand in everything other than AI.

.....
“We should expect this kind of divergence to continue, since it is completely correct to assume it is all AI,” said Gabelli Funds research analyst Ryuta Makino, who sees the separate paths remaining until at least 2025.



nai/dyor etc

[shavian] 21/10/2024 07:47

Very happy with my PLTR holding, surprised they did not mention TSLA as a leading AI participant, following the We Robot event

[takeiteasy] 21/10/2024 06:48

hxxps://x.com/DivesTech/status/1848061647484760323

"While Nvidia and Microsoft are the core drivers of AI, now we are seeing many other tech stalwarts join the AI Party including Oracle, SAP, ServiceNow, Palantir, Salesforce, Dell, IBM, Apple, and AMD among others"

Well, we do have at least two of these in AMD and Oracle :)

nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 21/10/2024 06:29

Our manager is tip toeing into sector diversification away from AI chip tech with tiny holdings in our fund in both medicine (intuitive surgical) and formula one racing media (liberty formula one)

2024 YTD these are trouncing performance of our core overweight c.25% MSFT holding and reiterates my view that better diversification can improve risk/return performance.

I hope our manager continues to reflect on the relative weights by sector and risk/return and adjusts accordingly!

nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 19/10/2024 05:41

Investing.com -- Bank of America analysts on Thursday reiterated a Buy rating on Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock and lifted the price target from $165 to $190, implying nearly 40% upside from current levels.

BofA also hiked its 2025 and 2026 pro forma earnings per share (EPS) estimates by 13% and 20%, respectively.

The bank believes that Nvidia, which holds an 80-85% market share, is facing "generational opportunity" in a total addressable market (TAM) exceeding $400 billion, a significant jump from the current year's projections.

Analysts said their bullish stance on the stock has been bolstered by several recent industry developments – TSMC’s recent blowout report, AMD’s AI event, and strong Blackwell demand, among others – as well as the company's robust competitive positioning.

Nothing new in the comments above, except that the analysts appear now more dialled into the AI landscape progress it seems- nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 18/10/2024 14:05

I wonder if the BTC level of recent volatility simply spooked a sufficient number of folks never to return...I also wonder whether we will need to get a way higher discount of say 26-30 percent to draw any investors back here. Would not mind a pint down the pub with our manager to get his take on it all. We simply do need some larger institutional investors to provide some basic level of liquidity...

[iminterested] 18/10/2024 09:42

Likewise I also do not understand the selling perhaps Igor can provide an opinion.In the meantime Mnl is the best performing fund in 2 years. If you’re over long then it’s not so difficult to (a) buy more (b) short msft + nvd Either way there is a theoretical profit. Simplistically, not long ago many investors paid a premium for the service sheppard & co provide now I’m being paid !

[takeiteasy] 18/10/2024 05:56

I have been unable to fathom the sheer scale of consistent selling here over many months and your explanation is very possible- certainly for all the most recent selling on better AI news for the industry for 2025 growth etc...



1 year is only a very short term measure (not a fully accurate guide to long term outcomes), but can the outperformance continue into 2025 with our concentration on small band of AI "winners"....

("just in the first innings of AI")
nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 18/10/2024 05:54

Furthermore, Robinson and Gibson believe that the excitement about AI is warranted. In their view, ‘recent advances in AI represent some of the most important technological developments of the century… (the technology is) outperforming humans in some tasks and improving at a remarkable rate’. They expect the AI revolution to continue and accelerate, making large swathes of the global economy more efficient. While the market is currently very concentrated on a small number AI-related stocks, market gains are likely to disperse as AI integrates into more and more areas of the economy and daily life. They expect this seismic change in technology to generate ‘huge structural opportunities’ that will allow adaptable businesses to realise outsized returns for long-term investors such as USA.

interview on ukinvesting.com posted on 1/10/24 with managers of BG USA tech IT...

nai/dyor etc

[iminterested] 17/10/2024 23:04

If discount to nav is trading wider once more. Today I bought 7000 @702/3 which appears good value. Here’s a thought, perhaps there are owners of Mnl who hold the stock outside of ISAs who would prefer to sell and pay cgt today than wait till next month when cgt is likely to go up. Remember anyone who has bought Mnl in the last 24 months is sitting on a good profit. Get my point. Once the budget is out the sellers might fall away.

[takeiteasy] 17/10/2024 09:59

The main chipmaker to Nvidia Corp. and Apple Inc. now expects sales to climb roughly 30% in US dollar terms this year, up from previous projections for about a mid-20% rise. That’s after TSMC reported better-than-predicted earnings for the September quarter. And it foresees capital expenditure rising in 2025 from roughly $30 billion this year.

TSMC’s outlook should help tamp down concerns that investors misjudged AI and semiconductor demand. Those fears crystallized after chip industry linchpin ASML Holding NV stunned markets by reporting about half the orders investors had expected. On Thursday, TSMC Chief Executive Officer C. C. Wei sought to dispel those doubts.

“The demand is real and I believe it’s just the beginning,” Wei said, echoing a number of executives including Nvidia’s CEO. In terms of overall chip demand, “everything217;s stabilized and start to improve.”
yahoo finance update

nai/dyor

[takeiteasy] 17/10/2024 04:13

Polar tech trust latest industry commentary

Another way of thinking about the scale of the AI opportunity is to consider that today $5trn is spent on IT compared to $40trn on the wages of knowledge workers. Should AI begin to substitute, rather than augment, labour, the total addressable market (TAM) could expand from 3-9% of IT budgets to as much as 20-50% of total operating expenditure. For example, the contact centre software market is today estimated at $23bn to support 17 million human agents. However, as AI begins to replace humans, the TAM could exceed $500bn considering the fully loaded cost of an agent is likely $30-40k pa. This explains why ‘buy now/pay later’ leader Klarna has cut its headcount from 5,000 to 3,800 with suggested annual savings of $40m pa. Klarna has also disclosed that it has used internally developed AI tools to replace both Salesforce.com* and Workday*, supporting our concerns about the risks posed to enterprise software by AI.......

As we enter 2025, we also expect strong demand for NVIDIA’s Blackwell (and alternatives from competitors such as AMD and Broadcom) as well as high-profile generative AI model upgrades/product releases to reignite interest in AI-exposed stocks. It will also become more obvious that AI represents a rare moment of discontinuous technology progress that we expect to reshape most industries. While companies that successfully embrace AI may emerge as the new disruptors, like earlier GPTs AI also represents an existential threat to those who fail to grasp its significance.

Hoping for a positive year of progress here in 2025 :)

nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 12/10/2024 14:24

- https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/truist-backs-microsoft-stock-for-longterm-gains-driven-by-cybersecurity-strength-93CH-3652850New 600 usd target share price for MSFT ..vs. 414 share price atmnai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 11/10/2024 13:41

"Moving to the market for data-center accelerators, AMD now estimates a 60% compound annual growth rate in the total addressable market that would lead to a sum of $500 billion by 2028, compared with an estimated $45 billion for 2023".

Hopefully addresses the point NVDA is not just a 12 month wonder :) nai/dyor etc

hxxps://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/amd-kicks-off-its-ai-event-but-so-far-it-s-not-helping-the-stock/ar-AA1s2xSO

[takeiteasy] 10/10/2024 16:56

In a note published Thursday, Morgan Stanley analyst Joe Moore said his firm hosted Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and other members of the company’s management team this week for a series of meeting with investors. The analyst said the executives revealed Nvidia’s Blackwell GPU products are “booked out 12 months,” which means if a customer puts in an order today they won’t receive the product until late next year.

We need our manager to drum beat the message to his institutional clients to gather some level of engagement here :)

nai/dyor

[takeiteasy] 10/10/2024 07:26

YTD performance, only 4 of our names have beaten the nasdaq100 index, whereas over the past month all bar one of our holdings are ahead of the NQ100 - so the question is whether the AI thematic trade is coming back on...having been in slumber for several months since the peak earlier in the year?

Sales figures from Nvidia’s key supplier Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing were a potential catalyst for the stock earlier in the day. On Wednesday, the company reported a 40% rise in its September sales from the same month last year.
TSMC—and Nvidia—have struggled to meet demand for AI chips. TSMC management has confirmed plans to double advanced chip-packaging capacity, called CoWoS, by the end of 2024. CoWoS is needed to make Nvidia’s highest-performing AI chips. And investors look to have largely moved past concerns over potential delays to shipments of its Blackwell artificial intelligence chips.
hxxps://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/nvidia-stock-nears-record-high-what-tsmc-s-sales-mean-for-the-ai-chip-maker/ar-AA1rWII8

It seems the consolidation phase for all the good reasons that caused it, is now in the rear mirror (we hope!) nai/dyor etc