Manchester & London Inve... Share Discussion Threads

[rogerbridge] 04/12/2024 13:05

A very interesting discussion, thank you.

[takeiteasy] 04/12/2024 06:23

A manager of a UK tech fund gives their take on how they choose AI investments for 2025 - a lot of discussion over Nvidia and others...very thoughtful and considered approach imvho - seems somewhat aligned to how our manager views things?



nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 04/12/2024 05:58

Interesting interview yesterday to showcase Amazon AWS cloud computing AI developments.

Interviewer: "Nvidia estimated to have about 95% of the global GPU market - do you agree with that"
Amazon AWS CEO: "It's probably higher than that.....explosive growth in AI usage"



nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 03/12/2024 05:52

hxxps://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/software-is-in-chips-are-out-as-traders-position-for-trump-era/ar-AA1uMrhN



nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 02/12/2024 17:44

The Biden Chinese microchips rule amendments released today have been confirmed in detail and the hope is that Trump will not over egg these further.

Given they are seen at the better end of what was expected we had a really decent bounce on Semiconductor index SMH which has been in the doldrums for so long over these concerns and waiting for them to be ratified by Biden etc.

MNL with a dominant exposure to the same global microchip sector has equally been for a fair while stuck in the same doldrums - so if this is sustained we may finally come back to life here....been many false dawns recently of course so will wait patiently as ever :)

Nai/dyor etc

PS; I am starting to wonder if this chip tariff fear is a decent part of our large discount issue - let's see over the next month if anything changes....

[sutherlh] 02/12/2024 15:51

I sold my Nvidia shares just before the earnings. To get back some exposure to those I have bought a few of these today, I also think Microsoft having been flat for some time is due a rerating. H

[shavian] 02/12/2024 14:48

Useful and wise words TIE. I have trimmed back my MNL holding by 20% while holding my overweights in TSLA and PLTR, putting the proceeds into SOFI on just such considerations.

[takeiteasy] 30/11/2024 06:55

Dell in a nutshell illustrates my point (silicon angle web site)
"Demand for Nvidia’s GPUs remains sky-high, with cloud infrastructure providers and enterprises such as Meta Platforms Inc. still racing to buy up as many as they can get their hands on. .....
However, those customers are now beginning to slow down their pace of new server purchases, in anticipation of Nvidia’s next-generation Blackwell chips, which won’t go on sale until early next year".

[takeiteasy] 30/11/2024 06:09

"Nvidia Stock Heads Into the Holiday Falling. Tariff Talk Haven’t Helped". our manager on Twitter this week.

Trump is bringing a wide range of issues to our investment thesis here in addition to trade sanctions on chip firms..
Margin concerns and capacity restrictions from Blackwell chip supplies
China tariff and non AI chip cyclical issues for the chip/server firms
Anti-trust legislation fears
Musk has a brand new mega LLM to compete with just about anybody - where does that leave everyone

With that backdrop why is anyone surprised that those wanting AI exposure go to the mainly software names that are not impacted by sanctions/Blackwell capacity limits/SEC anti-trust fears that support business process efficiency returns? e.g Palentir, Applovin, Innodata, Meta etc etc

I will wait on our manager's next monthly report to see how he responds.

nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 29/11/2024 18:33

Worst week of tracking error I can ever recall, NDQ up nearly 1% and we are down nearly 5%...perhaps everything is now on hold until the spring 2025 and Blackwell launches more broadly to the globe...this was the impression Dell gave in their earnings call this week :) nai etc

[takeiteasy] 29/11/2024 07:48

If you have an FT link this is really quite interesting I think



nai

[shavian] 28/11/2024 15:21

As long as earnings keep rising at around the present rate, the high P/E ratio in NVIDIA is containable longer-term. Mag7 bound to take a breather after this rise, so I'm looking for peeps to panic out and create a better entry price.

[takeiteasy] 28/11/2024 06:27

hxxps://x.com/MLCapMan/status/1861823970909061444 our manager tweets this week his rationale for sticking to US markets and bypassing UK/Europe.

Interesting analysis from an ex city trader (video below - from 6 minutes in approx.), about where he sees the best returns from the markets over past 2 years.

MAG7 up 148%, S&P500 up 57% and remaining 493 up 35%
MAG7 have gone up as earnings have gone up e.g. PEG ratios still "cheap" in his view


Our fund is 2/3rds or c.68% MAG7 with NVDA (38%), MSFT (24%) and Google (6%) - degree of tracking error vs. the MAG7 index is down to our manager's skill of course...other ways of trying to make sense of our investment approach imvho

Nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 28/11/2024 06:06

nai/dyor etc as ever

[takeiteasy] 27/11/2024 13:28

NAV moved under 1% over the week - nice surprise.....

nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 27/11/2024 09:42

first dawn of agentic AI in UK :)



no specific link to our investments, just to illustrate the AI theme progression....

nai/dyor etc

hxxps://www.cykel.ai/ai-workflows

[takeiteasy] 27/11/2024 04:47

hxxps://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/theres-growing-skepticism-that-things-have-peaked-with-nvidia-says-jim-cramer/vi-AA1uOq16

he says he likes NVDA/AMD still though :) nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 26/11/2024 13:42

Funny the way the traders price this stock i.e. NVDA goes down 3% yesterday and our share price follows down 3% as I assume they read across the 38% holding - when NVDA goes up they are sometimes slow to notice at all :)

[takeiteasy] 26/11/2024 08:45

hxxps://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/the-magnificent-seven-have-seen-persistent-selling-from-active-funds-citi/ar-AA1uJk2W

hxxps://www.msn.com/en-us/technology/artificial-intelligence/ai-spending-isn-t-going-away-stick-with-the-mag-7-stocks/ar-AA1uJHs9

lots of different views out there atm...nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 26/11/2024 07:24

hxxps://cdn.pficdn.com/cms1/jennison/sites/default/files/Artificial_Intelligence_An_Accelerating_Revolution.pdf

"We also believe the falling cost to run AI applications will help to catalyze the move from R&D into production.Pricing for LLMs and multimodal models fell dramatically in 2023 because of improvements in model efficiency and the scaling up of GPU infrastructure from cloud providers. Use cases that were previously very expensive torun at production scale are now much more affordable".

Exhibit 4: Agent of Progress: AI Agent Capabilities vs. Non-AI Agent comparison is rather interesting :)

nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 25/11/2024 05:58

"Phil Panaro, Founder and Former CEO of Boston Consulting Group, forecasts that shares of NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) could reach $800 by 2030. ...shift from Web2.0 to Web3.0 is forecast to grow into a $10 trillion market by 2030. As of today, less than $10 trillion is spent on Web 3.0, offering a 10x growth opportunity".



He speaks about this in this video interview and calls his price target "very conservative" :) at about 2mins50secs in.

Video includes AI use case of an AI Nasdaq insider dealing monitoring system that can now pick up possible crimes in 1 minute - used to take 4 months using old technology. So can they apply this to tackling all the US government waste and inefficiency etc etc

as ever nai and dyor