Manchester & London Inve... Share Discussion Threads

[takeiteasy] 09/10/2024 12:19

NAV start of 2024 602p and today 9/10/24 is 860p - gain of 42% ...truly astonishing and i think ahead of other rival collectives for YTD performance.

So if they win the award it is well deserved for their stock picking excellence.

Discount now up to 25% if you are selling at the bid price...which is the highest I think I have ever seen in the couple of years I have been following. Our manager has posted that SMT has thrown a billion quid to reduce the discount and it is still at 12%...so money may not solve our issue. I suspect patience and whether the momentum can continue in 2025 when the blackwell Nvidia GPUs roll out.

nai/dyor etc

[posh johno] 05/10/2024 11:47

Manchester and London Investment Trust is featured in this week's Investors Chronicle in its article entitled "Investment Trust Winners and Bargains Worth Backing"

[bigwadds] 04/10/2024 06:32

Great to see Manchester & London IT Plc ("MLIT") shortlisted in the Citywire Investment Trust Awards 2024 which is between Caledonia Investments and MLIT.

If you look at the stats, MLIT wins hands down on performance.

On behalf of all long-standing (and new investors), congratulations and best wishes must go to Mark Sheppard and his Team.

Winners will be announced on Monday, 4th November 2024.

Well done MLIT.

DYOR and NAG

[takeiteasy] 27/9/2024 06:01

However, 5-star investor Victor Derg unov believes AMD is on the cusp of a significant turnaround, with strong growth potential on the horizon.

“AMD is undervalued and poised for growth, especially in the AI segment, with the potential for better-than-expected Q3 earnings and robust future guidance,” writes Dergunov, who sits in the top 4% of all TipRanks’ stock pros.
hxxps://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/take-the-plunge-says-top-investor-about-amd-stock/ar-AA1rcWV4

AMD is 7.5% holding here...nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 26/9/2024 08:11

Micron up 16% pre-market...sparking moves in the other chip names e.g. NVDA etc

nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 26/9/2024 07:57

Super results from our Micron holding last night...

“Robust AI demand drove a strong ramp of our data center DRAM products and our industry-leading high bandwidth memory,” the CEO said in a statement. “We are entering fiscal 2025 with the best competitive positioning in Micron’s history. We forecast record revenue in fiscal Q1 and a substantial revenue record with significantly improved profitability in fiscal 2025.”

hxxps://siliconangle.com/2024/09/25/microns-stock-surges-ai-companies-scramble-high-bandwidth-memory-chips/

nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 26/9/2024 06:09

Three-quarters of Warren Buffett’s equity portfolio are tied up in just 5 stocks.”

A great point to make and I have read support on this thread for concentrating among the winners.



Interesting outcome over 5 years to compare between the investment approaches - our firm will say in defence they morphed to AI theme later in the 5 year cycle I know but WB has a mixture of value/growth and cross industry diversification.

Having said that, nice to see in the 31/7 portfolio the start of building some small positions in other sectors Remy and Pernod (drinks) and Novo nordisk (health) - let's hope this is the start of building a more diversified portfolio.

nai/dyor etc

[posh johno] 25/9/2024 19:02

There was also some positive news for investment trusts generally at the end of last week with the UK government and the FCA with immediate effect exempting investment trusts from the onerous and misleading costs disclosure requirements of PRIIPS. The hope is that this change will lead to more institutional capital being allocated to investment trusts with a resulting shrinkage in discounts.

There was a slightly garbled article on this in the FT's weekend Money section. This from the law firm Dentons is helpful:

HM Treasury and FCA announce temporary exemption from regulated cost disclosure requirements for investment trusts

September 20, 2024

The UK government yesterday announced an exemption to the current cost disclosure requirements for investment trusts. In a move warmly welcomed by the sector, the UK government and the FCA announced1 that the requirements would temporarily be withdrawn until "legislation to amend the PRIIPs Regulation comes into force".

Since January 2018, the Packaged Retail and Insurance-based Investment Products Regulations (PRIIPs) and the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID) have required investment trusts to report costs in the same format as unlisted open-ended funds. This has led to a sense of "double counting" of costs for investment trusts, which is believed to have had an impact on the UK economy in terms of significant lost investment.

As investment trusts are traded instruments, campaigners have argued that their market values already fully reflect costs.

FCA's new forbearance

In light of yesterday's announcement, the FCA will immediately apply new forbearance to provide certainty for firms ahead of the legislation taking effect. For the period from 19 September until the new regime for Consumer Composite Investments (CCIs) comes into force, the FCA will not take supervisory or enforcement action if an investment trust chooses not to follow the requirements of PRIIPs and associated technical standards, and/or the relevant requirements of the UK version of MiFID.

The FCA noted that firms need to take into account whether taking advantage of the forbearance will impact on other legislation to which they are subject. They noted that this includes complying with the Consumer Duty and its principles of fair, clear and not misleading communications, alongside the COBS requirements to act fairly, honestly and professionally in the best interest of clients.

New CCI regime

The UK's new retail disclosure regime is expected to be in place in H1 2025, subject to Parliamentary approval and the FCA consultation process. The FCA intends to consult on proposed rules for the CCI regime this autumn. The proposed new CCI regime is intended to better cater for investment trusts while still ensuring consumers receive appropriate information to allow them to make meaningful choices between investment opportunities regarding composite consumer investments.

Outlook

The reforms form part of the UK government's programme to reinvigorate the UK's capital markets, in which investment trusts play a prominent role. It is hoped that removing the requirement for investment trusts to "double count" costs could help to attract additional investment in the sector and boost demand for share prices.

hxxps://www.dentons.com/en/insights/articles/2024/september/20/hm-treasury-and-fca-announce-temporary-exemption

[posh johno] 25/9/2024 18:39

From today's annual financial report for the year to end July I've extracted the Manager's comments around concentration and diversification risk.

He makes some good points and suggests not having all your eggs in the one Manchester and London basket if you are a retail investor who is uncomfortable with the volatility and potential loss:

"Concentration Risk

We always seek as diversified a portfolio as we can possibly construct but we must address the concentration risk within our portfolio. Our top two holdings – Microsoft, and Nvidia – represented around 59% of our NAV at the period end and our top 5 holdings represent about 78% of our portfolio. Sadly, we do believe the outstanding winners from the Ai era may in time be counted on the fingers of two hands. So what are we meant to do: diversify to dilute performance? Punish our winners for proving they are elite? The logical conclusion to this risk for shareholders that are Retail Investors is that our Fund should form part of a diversified portfolio. Please do not over-concentrate on our Fund if you cannot afford to bear potential loss. However, it is worth noting that according to two of the leading ratings agencies MSFT has a better credit rating than US sovereign debt.

May I remind you that the limits on portfolio concentration per our Investment Policy are as follows:



“No single holding will represent more than 20% of gross assets at the time of investment. In addition, the Company’s five largest holdings (by value) will not exceed (at the time of investment) more than 75% of gross assets.”



We do prioritize risk reduction in our approach, aiming to partially hedge specific risks that concern us (but hedging requires luck in its timing) and, in addition, avoiding any holdings that give us nagging doubts.



“Three-quarters of Warren Buffett’s equity portfolio are tied up in just 5 stocks.”

– CNBC headline August 2023.

Conclusion

The risks are varied, numerous and material but the Era of Ai is in its youth. Ai offers investors a first-class ticket to what could be one of the most exciting investment and economic periods of the century.



Long the Future."

M&L Capital Management Limited

Manager

25 September 2024

[takeiteasy] 25/9/2024 08:16

From a risk perspective having 35% of the fund in the asset that has by far and away the highest volatility means significant drawdowns will occur from time to time.

Our manager I think is trying to manage this drawdown risk with periodic options hedging around specific events,staff fund purchases and most recently a few share buy backs.

I think we are at a bit of a cross roads with this journey into an uber concentrated AI strategy. We remain resolutely stuck at very high discount vs. our peers alongside the very high beta.

Imvho if our manager feels he has to stick with this approach (I for one would prefer much better diversification) then he needs to consider committing funds to an ongoing discount target be that 5%, 10% whatever and keep hitting the market day by day and prove his commitment to this discount target. This will cost capital of course.

The other option is to keep all holdings size below a certain maximum say 10-15 percent and diversify further into other markets using AI eg energy, medicine etc to reduce volatility.

My sense is that we need a better risk/reward balance here to maintain interest from investors. Our manager is of course welcome to see things differently :)

You pay your money and takes your choice....

All imvho, nai dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 24/9/2024 05:07

We seem in a torrid short term run atm - down c.25% from our 2024 peak this year when NDQ 100 now about 10% down from its peak...we have had FX to deal with (GBP is improving) but we had in theory also made some super hedging gains on options. SP500 ATH yesterday.

Let's hope for more interest in 2025 as AI pilots move to build phase...nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 23/9/2024 17:20

hxxps://mlcapman.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Untitled-notebook-4.wav

A pure AI driven podcast about our fund...to illustrate the power of AI - rather well I think :)

nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 23/9/2024 11:45

ATT trust fact sheet 13/9/24...with some irony given recent comments here...

New buys and sells
Turnover in August was at a slightly higher level due to a slew of earnings
results and overall market volatility. We newly purchased .....and.....and... application software maker Palantir Technologies Inc. amid expectations that the
company can leverage their AI expertise to drive customer demand.

nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 19/9/2024 17:53

hxxps://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/fed-interest-rate-cut-ai-stocks-nvidia-broadcom-asml-tech-2024-9

"The Fed finally ripped the band-aid off and cut 50 bps with a dovish dot plot into 2025 and that we view as a very bullish backdrop for the Big Tech and AI Revolution risk-on trade into 2025," Ives said in a note on Thursday.

Ives said the Fed's rate cut was the "missing piece in the puzzle" to signal that the "green light is back on for the tech growth trade into year-end and 2025."

Ives has been encouraged by resilient earnings growth from the technology sector and said excitement has room to grow as software companies begin to monetize AI in their customer offerings, and as the GPU buying frenzy continues.

"Our time spent in Asia over the past few weeks gives us further confidence that the tech supply chain is gearing up for an unprecedented period of growth being driven by the roughly $1 trillion of AI capex we estimate is on the horizon the next few years for the tech world," Ives said, adding that he believes its only 9 pm in the AI party that will last until 4 am.

After months of relatively heavy selling, in relative amounts the buying interest remains low - wonder what it will take to reignite investor interest in the AI theme in MNL?

nai/dyor etc

[shavian] 19/9/2024 11:04

Interesting snippet on Tesla:Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) – Elon Musk supports Donald Trump in the presidential race, but employees at his companies, including Tesla and SpaceX, are donating more to rival Kamala Harris. Contributions to Harris total $42,824, while Trump received $24,840. This reflects a political divide between Musk and his staff. Shares rose 2.8% in pre-market trading after closing down -0.3% on Wednesday.

[takeiteasy] 19/9/2024 09:23

With c.2-3 percent uplift in today's pre-market we are at perhaps near 23% discount...

[takeiteasy] 19/9/2024 09:02

I am changing my views on Tesla with one of the world's largest AI data models Tesla can expand into AI and related areas we might hope. Perhaps he now needs to reconsider this alongside PLTR.
The market seems to have given up almost entirely on this stock - I can understand why with the huge spreads and total lack of liquidity. Our manager needs to do far more to address this if he wants this to remain an independent entity longer term I wonder?
meanwhile in the real world...
hxxps://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/interest-rates-today-fed-meeting-cut-stock-market-powell-economy-2024-9

nai/dyor etc

[shavian] 19/9/2024 07:12

I know our manager dislikes Elon and Tesla, but it remains my biggest holding, a bit above MLN and PLTR. Happy with that.

[shavian] 19/9/2024 07:09

Back up to 20% discount - for now.

[shavian] 19/9/2024 07:08

That's a 6% jump in NAV in a week - nice!

[takeiteasy] 18/9/2024 17:24

The unaudited fully diluted net asset value per share (including income and excluding shares held in treasury) was 802.7p as at 17 September 2024.

Thought we had eked out a close above £8 so very well done to the management. Cannot see how share price remains way below £7 .....nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 18/9/2024 06:36

This weekend, the @xAI team brought our Colossus 100k H100 training cluster online. From start to finish, it was done in 122 days.

Colossus is the most powerful AI training system in the world. Moreover, it will double in size to 200k (50k H200s) in a few months.

Excellent work by the team, Nvidia and our many partners/suppliers.

Elon Musk twitter feed this month - another nice one for NVDA :) nai/dyor etc