Manchester & London Inve... Share Discussion Threads

[takeiteasy] 13/7/2024 15:07

Noting prior cyclicality risks for semis, this research firm back Micron, Nvidia and AMD for H2 2024...someone at some point is going to be wrong of course....



dyor/nai etc

[takeiteasy] 12/7/2024 17:45

Three different perspectives - a world apart, you pay your money and take your pick :)

"Fidelity Global Technology Doesn’t Own Nvidia ....the company itself is in the technology infrastructure and can be erratic and cyclical - which I think the market underestimates"

"Nvidia stock is still cheap based on a forward price-to-earnings multiple, a hedge-fund manager says. Eric Jackson expects Nvidia stock to hit $250 a share by year-end, doubling from current levels".

"Sell-side forecasts currently call for MSFT’s earnings to hit $18.64 per share by FY2027. Beating these forecasts, by delivering earnings of $20 to $25 per share in FY2027, could justify a move to prices above $900 per share".

hxxps://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/microsoft-stock-set-to-soar-900-price-target-by-2027-as-ai-gamble-pays-off-1033550013

hxxps://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-price-prediction-nvda-250-price-target-6-trillion-valuation-2024-6
hxxps://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/246725/why-this-top-performing-fidelity-tech-fund-doesnt-own-nvidia-stock.aspx

nai/dyor etc

[shavian] 12/7/2024 07:15

I hate to do this but I've just taken my profits and sold MNL for the time being. There are signs that the AI frenzy has run too fast for now, and that the customers of NVIDIA in particular will take time to realise much revenue for all the billions they are spending, and this is beginning to sink in with the market. My favourite gurus on the All-In Podcast seem to agree :https://youtu.be/w30WLkNU47g?si=YwoqMMWfAHY4ea7p

[takeiteasy] 11/7/2024 07:37

Based on bid of 812 discount remains in the same range as most of 2024 (14%-18%) which remains significantly higher than all our rivals. I think we should commit to a 3% yield and rebrand as a global income category to broaden appeal of the investor base...
nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 10/7/2024 11:15

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (NYSE:TSM) – TSMC, the world’s largest contract chipmaker, reported strong second-quarter revenue growth, surpassing market forecasts due to high demand for AI applications. April-June revenue was $20.67 billion, up 32% from the same period last year. TSMC expects a 30% increase in second-quarter net profit. Shares rose 1.83% in pre-market trading.

nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 10/7/2024 09:51

The S&P 500 index returned 17 per cent over the period in sterling terms, of which Smith said a quarter came from Nvidia.

Smith said a return above 9 per cent over six months “would normally be cause for celebration”, but pointed to the strong performance of the world index.

“There’s no question that as an active manager if you don’t own AI stocks you’re probably underperforming [at the moment],” said Andrew Slimmon, a senior portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.

ft view on Fundsmith/AI...nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 10/7/2024 09:01

Vinh boosted his price target on Nvidia $50 to $180 a share, while affirming his overweight rating, saying that current demand for its GB200 chips should support data-center revenue of around $200 billion this fiscal year.

"Despite the impending launch of Blackwell in [second-half 2024], we are not seeing any signs of a demand pause as demand for H100 remains robust, as we continue to see rush orders (and) the interest and demand in GB200 is greater than we initially had sized," Vinh and his team said .
hxxps://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/analyst-resets-nvidia-stock-price-target-in-chip-sector-overhaul/ar-BB1pHFOF

nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 10/7/2024 07:18

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-13615865/Terry-Smith-defends-not-holding-Nvidia-Fundsmith-Equity-despite-costing-investors-better-returns.htmlWho needs a PR department when the AI investment messages are hitting MSM - lolsnai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 09/7/2024 05:34

"PCT’s underperformance of its Dow Jones Global Technology benchmark since
early 2021 has largely been due to the effect of its two largest underweight
exposures – Apple and Microsoft – performing strongly. This underperformance has
seen its three- and five-year NAV returns fall significantly below the benchmark, as
shown in Figure 14. However, over one year to the end of May 2024, PCT’s NAV
returns were more in line with the benchmark – 1.5 percentage points lower.
The considerable outperformance by large-cap versus mid- and small-cap
technology companies continues to play out, as we have discussed in previous
notes".

nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 09/7/2024 05:25

Two comments from the latest 24th June 2024 PCT tech trust I found interesting...

Despite a 13.9% forecast growth in spend on software in 2024, as shown in
Figure 4, PCT’s manager believes that the software sector looks increasingly
exposed as a loser in the AI race. Investment in AI, the manager argues, is crowding
out spend on other technology sectors, including software, and this is likely to
heighten as the prevalence of AI grows

The scale of positive capex revisions
at the largest cloud companies such as Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure and
Google Cloud – named collectively “the hyperscalers” – for this year is enormous.
Hyperscaler capex in 2024 is now expected to grow 44% year-on-year to more than
$170bn in aggregate, up from expectations of 26% (which itself was upgraded from
a previous forecast of 18%). This represents the fastest growth since 2018.
Technology research firm Gartner states that almost 60% of the hyperscalers’ total
server spend will be on AI servers.
This gives PCT’s manager added confidence in the future of AI, especially given the
hyperscalers’ visibility into AI product roadmaps



nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 09/7/2024 05:18

"The only complete sell was the aforementioned Shopify Inc., which was cut amid disappointing results and expectations that a new cycle of increased spending would
likely translate to weaker margins and take time to materialise.
Outlook
There was a wider-than-typical performance differential between key
technology industries in May as AI-related euphoria translated into
divergent outcomes in the short-term. Areas like semiconductors and
hardware were among the outperformers, while software and IT services
lagged due to their muted guidance and interest rate sensitivity"

ATT tech trust update in latest fact sheet - says it all really where the best opportunities are in AI atm :)


nai/dyor etc...

[takeiteasy] 07/7/2024 06:42

our manager has a $200 PT for NVDA as does this analyst - latter explains his thinking on the stock as a cross check for our man :)

nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 06/7/2024 05:33

Sensibly cautious tone in the monthly update today, profit taking in some names, a large long dated nasdaq put option linked to volatility around US election - so impressed how they cover the risk angles here.

"Market Update
Another double-digit month for the Fund. We keep expecting some consolidation for
the Ai Tech names but get surprised on the upside. Q2 reporting season will start in
the next couple of weeks and the bar has been set high for our names. Either way we
still have a long way to travel through the Era of Ai".
hxxps://mlcapman.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/MLIT_Factsheet_202406.pdf
hxxps://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/shares/investment-trusts-find-favour-again-with-tech-leading-from-the-front

nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 06/7/2024 05:14

AMD finally back to life +5%..at $171

Farragu gave AMD stock a $235, 12-month price target and $345 target by the end of 2026. He based his valuation on a prediction that AMD will churn out $10 in earnings per share by 2027.


Helpful diversification we hope from NVDA - dyor/nai etc

[takeiteasy] 04/7/2024 10:56

cracking day yesterday up about 2 pc Nav and we draw back to raise discount further - go figure :)

[scottishfield] 04/7/2024 07:45

Added a few this morning.

[shavian] 04/7/2024 07:36

That's very useful TIE, thank you. I've also had a modest holding in WTAI for 2 years and was wondering why it had become so anaemic. Our. Managers insight says it all. I shall consider realigning that holding before we lose all that lovely discount!

[takeiteasy] 04/7/2024 06:07

WTAI ETF methodology diversifies between three distinct sectors. We do not.

Our manager does not think the money is there in the "Engagers" yet but is in the "Enablers" (Chips and hardware) and some very specific "Enhancers" (MSFT).You pay your money and takes your choice.


THE THREE TIERS: ENGAGERS, ENABLERS AND ENHANCERS
In evaluating AI companies, it quickly became clear that there were different levels and types of involvement within the
space. When considering constituents within the NASDAQ CTA Artificial Intelligence Index, three tiers were created to
account for these differences.
1) Engagers: The term “engagers̶1; is meant to encompass those companies that are currently selling AI products
or services to the market today. When their revenues are considered, the critical part is determined by selling AI
directly to customers.
2) Enablers: The engagers depend on certain other capabilities and hardware developed by other companies, and
within the methodology of the NASDAQ CTA Artificial Intelligence Index these companies are termed “enablers.R21;
The most prevalent sub-industry within this category is semiconductors, which makes sense since in AI and Machine
Learning processing power is paramount.
3) Enhancers: There are companies that focus on aspects of AI as part of much larger, much broader business initiatives.
Frequently, these firms were not founded with selling AI as their main strategy, but they are important in pushing the
field forward and they frequently have massive troves of capital with which to make important investments.

nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 04/7/2024 05:38

Wisdome tree AI ETF is up 1% YTD and this holds micron and Nivdia. Continues to prove that the best intentions of diversification can either add or significantly detract from performance. Holding of NVDA is 3% and MSFT 0.5%...

Clearly AI investing takes enormous skill and agility as all boats do not seem to be rising to the top atm - some maydo further down the line perhaps but we do know yet is some are going to be "reshaped" put politely by AI themselves ?

(all AI etfs over 1 year)

nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 03/7/2024 21:26

hxxps://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-record-ai-bubble-burst-dotcom-tech-2024-7

the point of all these posts is not what any of us PIs may think on ADVFN, but the wy the winds are blowing on Wall st and being the right side of the trade :)

nai/dyor etc

[scottishfield] 03/7/2024 20:38

Appreciate yr posts/input tie, tks.

[takeiteasy] 03/7/2024 20:08

AI "engine room" has sparked back to life tonight - NVDA up 4%, ASML up 2%, Micron up 3% and Arista up 2%...back out of temporary resting state ..:)
nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 03/7/2024 19:54

Been wondering about SMT, I find a lump in my throat over Moderna so keep the powder dry. Do not understand PLTR at all, gave up on TSLA a long time ago but see it is now having a huge recovery - I suppose we all find areas we are most comfortable with - I like some of FTSE 250 names but you have to be very careful....I came in here at 3.50 so do not need much to happen really from now on...just love reading about the AI story unfolding though....nice distraction from the UK GE...

estimated discount about 16%...shame...

[shavian] 03/7/2024 13:59

I note that PLTR and the much-derided (here) TSLA are back on the rise this week. My own AI exposure is an even split between MLN, PLTR and TSLA with a bit of SMT to get exposure to private equity especially SpaceX. Seems to have most ends covered without excessive diversification.