Manchester & London Inve... Share Discussion Threads

[takeiteasy] 12/6/2024 18:43

For context we started the year with a NAV of 603 so 880 is 46% gain in under 6 months ,the S&P 500 where the majority of holdings are sourced is up 14.5%. I am amazed they are not getting industry recognition for this- we still seem to be a lonely investment backwater on MNL :)

nai etc

[takeiteasy] 12/6/2024 18:27

Yes it is. Is managing money easy or hard?

The return from one of our top rivals in the world of technology innovation actually lost money in 2024 - yes, unbelievably. I attach the link as confirmation.


Our manager's least faviourite tech stock in the whole planet I think we all know by now is Tesla for all the issues about low margins, competition, margins and lack of sales growth. This is the one stock this fund thinks is going to the Moon share price wise. They have just emailed me research with a target share price in 2029 of 2,600 dollars - wow and this is one of their largest hodlings. Given what we know from our manager, does this honeslty comupute?

So does the chap who manages your money make sense or not....I think our chaps have been superb with all the twitter updates, videos and other communications to explain why their strategy has been so utterly brilliant in the past 18 months.

This other fund sold their entire NVDA holding before it took off ...you pay your money and make your choice as they say :)

dyor/nai etc

[bigwadds] 12/6/2024 16:25

Is this the All time high for MNL?

If so, well done to Mark Sheppard and his team for the sterling work on behalf of the shareholders.

Onwards and upwards.

[shavian] 12/6/2024 16:18

Lucky me. Added quite a few at 2pm today just before a nice hike

[takeiteasy] 12/6/2024 15:02

Factoring in today discount v.approx back around 20% - normal service resumed :)

[takeiteasy] 12/6/2024 14:44

NAV up by 40p to 8.80 ATH.

dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 12/6/2024 11:32

Discount down to approximated14% so I suspect they may try to let NAV trend up and hold the share price at this level to drift back to 20% or so..that has been the pattern to date...let's see what happens after a new NAV later today...

[takeiteasy] 09/6/2024 11:16

A particularly interesting early example of how AI might significantly improve worker productivity came from law enforcement software and hardware provider Axon Enterprise. Axon launched AI-powered report-writing software ‘Draft One’, which can auto-draft reports based on police body-camera footage and sound and is already saving police officers an hour per day on paperwork in the first trials (officers spend up to 40% of their time writing reports). A police force in Colorado has already seen an 82% decline in time spent writing reports while “the quality of reports has improved substantially”. This is just an early glimpse into the kind of AI-driven innovation to come.

PCT trust assessment on AI developments - the hope is at some point here our managers will trust the software functionality opportunity vs hard tech infrastructure enough to move into some of these other names and broaden the portfolio :)

dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 07/6/2024 05:58

ASML (one of our largest holdings here) has been in the news this week after a quieter period...

hxxps://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/ibd-stock-of-the-day-asml-stock-jumps-as-major-customer-agrees-to-buy-its-pricey-chip-gear/ar-BB1nGzLS

ASML stock reacted positively to a news report that TSMC has purchased ASML's high numerical aperture, extreme ultraviolet lithography system. A TSMC executive had previously said the high-NA EUV machine was too expensive. The machines cost about $380 million apiece.
TSMC, the world's largest contract chipmaker, will take delivery of the cutting-edge equipment this year, Bloomberg reported. Meanwhile, chipmaker Intel has already taken delivery of the first high-NA EUV system from ASML.

[takeiteasy] 07/6/2024 05:36

The discount has moved a smidgeon to c.18% (estimated) with a trickle of investor activity which I think has got our manager wondering if there is a sense from the community whether it is now too late to join the bus or not...

hxxps://x.com/MLCapMan/status/1798753668998758909/photo/1
Our manager yesterday posted a copy of a buy order with the text "early in the innnings - still buying". He is clearly trying his best to rally the troops :)

The commentators view does not seem to waver much atm e.g.
hxxps://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/nvidia-stock-has-another-24-to-climb-as-it-looks-poised-to-dominate-the-computing-market-for-the-next-decade-bank-of-america-says/ar-BB1nKGk7
Nvidia's stellar stock rally isn't close to over, according to Bank of America.
The bank reiterated its $1,500 price target this week, implying another 24% upside for the stock. Nvidia will continue to dominate the computing market in the next upgrade cycle, the bank said.


dyor/nai etc

[shavian] 06/6/2024 14:43

But it's a great way of buying into MSFT and NVDA at a 20% discount - provided that the discount narrows eventually or the trust is wound up (most unlikely, hopefully)

[takeiteasy] 06/6/2024 11:06

From my very raw calculations we are back around 20% discount still...something over the months and years here I will have to learn to live with :)

[takeiteasy] 06/6/2024 07:18

A golobal tech trust put some results out today that placed their investment priorities in other parts of the market rather than AI.

"While we undoubtedly see great opportunity for AI to transform huge swaths of both business and consumer activity, it feels that stock markets have too bluntly anointed the benefits of these deep changes to a handful of winners - which would crudely fit with the Magnificent 7 alongside a handful of ex-US companies involved in aspects of semiconductor production".

MNL would say differently that a technology edge driving wider adoption is creating the handful of winners :) dyor/nai etc

[takeiteasy] 06/6/2024 06:49

Indeed - arguably yesterday was the strongest individual day for our holdings in recent times.

ASML up 10%, Broadcom and Micron up 6%, Synposis and AMD up 4%, Cadence and Ansys up 3% - all in addition to Nvidia as you note.
nai/dyor etc

[superadams] 05/6/2024 21:11

Nvidia up 5% tonight. Just saying.

[takeiteasy] 05/6/2024 10:39

Morningstar scores on the doors: 2024 YTD (any IFA will tell you comparisons for less than 3-5 years are not part of decision making) with caveat in mind:

MNL 42%

Allianz tech trust 17%

Polar tech trust 16%

Scottish Mortgage trust 10%

The "runners up" must read this stuff and start scratching their heads how to try to make up on the degree of performance deficit over the period - this follows a trouncing in 2023 we will all recall.

dyor/nai etc

[shavian] 05/6/2024 09:09

Chamath Palihapitiya, Silicon Valley billionaire entrepreneur seems to agree with our manager. On the famous All-In weekly podcast (check it out!), he predicts continuing amazing growth for NVIDIA :https://youtu.be/qdSo5PmViog?si=zwIEYTjDsV86Xs5T

[takeiteasy] 05/6/2024 06:25

More Evidence of Demand for Nvidia’s AI Chips
Dell Technologies (NYSE:DELL) recently reported its quarterly earnings.Overall, Dell observed a strong demand for AI-enabled servers, and especially for ones that include Nvidia’s chips.
Dell Technologies Chief Operating Officer Jeffrey Clarke explained, “When you look at the composition of our [AI server] backlog, it’s primarily Nvidia-based.” Clarke added, “It’s continuing to build every quarter.
www.msn.com


Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya called Nvidia a "top pick," reiterating his buy rating on the stock and raising his price target to $1,500. That represents potential gains for investors of 37% over the coming year compared to the stock's closing price on Friday.

"Our company has a one-year rhythm," Huang said. "Our basic philosophy is very simple: Build the entire data center scale, disaggregate and sell to you parts on a one-year rhythm, and push everything to technology limits."

The analyst noted that with this statement, Nvidia is essentially accelerating its product upgrade cycle from two years to one year. This will "continue to bolster Nvidia's AI leadership position," according to Arya.

hxxps://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/is-nvidia-stock-going-to-1500-1-wall-street-analyst-thinks-so/ar-BB1nBBKu

dyor/nai etc

[takeiteasy] 05/6/2024 05:31

Our manager has come to an even starker conclusion now over portfolio consruction - given c60% of the fund is already in only two stocks MSFT/NVDA. He is wondering on a Twitter post this week whether he should be adding even more concentration to the portfolio. That is quite unexpected!
How would we all react if we simply had two holdings in the fund :)


hxxps://x.com/MLCapMan/status/1796204564925792548/photo/1

This excellent Morgan Stanley chart proves there are 3 dominant companies in Ai at the moment: NVDA, MSFT and OpenAi.

IF that stays the same, diversification from those 3 was a mistake!


dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 04/6/2024 09:17

Very fair point I agree. The flip side is that his majorty holding allows him to pursue a more unusual approach that may not be possible in a different scenario where he had less influence over portfolio allocation limits?

[stevenlondon3] 04/6/2024 08:59

The discount is also likely to reflect that there is majority shareholder owning over 50% with only a minority free float.

[takeiteasy] 04/6/2024 08:52

If AI is really going to be a major disruptor across a number of sectors including many parts of the IT sector, this fund may (use the word carefully) start to be seen as a form of insurance risk against rivals who are more balanced with exposures to enterprise software, publishing, marketing and sub sectors like security protection tools.

We are in the somewhat mad position of being punished with the highest sector discount for a strategy that our management consistently articulate is more strategically placed than rivals. Ongoing NAV outperformance versus IT rivals during 2024 remains at an exceptional level compared to any prior year.

Something new is clearly changing - our managers seem to be working their socks off to be on the front foot to anticipate and not react to these changes.

Imvho/dyor/nai etc