Manchester & London Inve... Share Discussion Threads

[takeiteasy] 03/7/2024 20:54

Been wondering about SMT, I find a lump in my throat over Moderna so keep the powder dry. Do not understand PLTR at all, gave up on TSLA a long time ago but see it is now having a huge recovery - I suppose we all find areas we are most comfortable with - I like some of FTSE 250 names but you have to be very careful....I came in here at 3.50 so do not need much to happen really from now on...just love reading about the AI story unfolding though....nice distraction from the UK GE...

estimated discount about 16%...shame...

[shavian] 03/7/2024 14:59

I note that PLTR and the much-derided (here) TSLA are back on the rise this week. My own AI exposure is an even split between MLN, PLTR and TSLA with a bit of SMT to get exposure to private equity especially SpaceX. Seems to have most ends covered without excessive diversification.

[takeiteasy] 03/7/2024 14:54

small uplift in nav this week

[takeiteasy] 03/7/2024 06:23

hxxps://x.com/MLCapMan/status/1806601486861742190/photo/1
As the special divi going ex tomorrow has not been enough to prevent the recent pull back here the manager has issued a statement on Twitter for the faithful...lols.
"We are STILL in the early Chapters of this ERA. The Siren calls to sell and bank profits sound so sweet...but look at what could be. Be strong!"

Perhaps if we were the fund manager we might do the same - who knows. I suspect very few follow his channel anyway...having spent some time with a chap who manages a lot of private client money recently very little of what we are doing here is understood more widely - hopefully in the year ahead this level of understanding that AI=nvidia and not much else will improve....who has even heard of MNL yet outside of Advfn?

nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 03/7/2024 05:51

ATHs on the tech index and we take a decent breather with some consolidation at the moment...



at 4.22 asssessment of investment case for Arista Networks and Broadcom by tech sector analyst

nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 02/7/2024 06:52

1 year performance by MNL holding (and some of these holdings have not been held for full year so only an approx indicator of course)
Nvidia 193%
Arista networks 123%
Micron 106%
Broadcom 87%
Google 53%
ASML ADR 41%
Synopsys 39%
AMD 36%
MSFT 35%
Cadence 32%
Oracle 22%

Nasdaq 100 30% - comparative...all very short term and most IFAs etc will look to longer term comparatives eg 5 years...but shows the short term consistency of the selections that are now in the portfolio..i.e. tidied up after recent refresh:)

nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 02/7/2024 05:21

Dan Ives from Redbush on MSFT/NVDA

nai/dyor

[takeiteasy] 30/6/2024 17:23

For anyone who thinks we are too "off piste" here is PCT's portfolio approach -

c.50% now in chips and related infrastructure i.e our stable and not a single software name any more in top 10 holdings and their top 2 names match out top 2 (just in very different concentration levels!)

nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 30/6/2024 09:11

hxxps://x.com/MLCapMan/status/1806586773604102559/photo/1

If you want evidence that our manager is a very decisive equity trader, just look at the number of important changes even over the last month. Lower performers scaled back or removed in short order. I suspect a PI trying to copy this approach would find it hard to keep up with this astonishing level of agility :)

Scaled back or removed - AMD, Ansys, Cadence
Scaled back up or added - Micron,Broadcom

Much stronger set up in the second liners now imvho...well done again for picking up so quickly on the changing trends in the market.

-
nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 28/6/2024 07:33

Our manager must be smiling as one by one the UT firms realise the need to play follow my leader. Blue Whale I see now has 5 of their top 10 holdings in AI infrastructure plays direct from our stable.

dyor/nai etc

[takeiteasy] 28/6/2024 06:06

Interesting article in DT today advising readers how risky Nvidia is given the meteoric rise recently.

I then think of the comments from PCT about AI providing existential threats to swathes of the IT industry itself and then I look at the small case study above.

As a simple first take you can argue that AI/LLM tech has provided:
Market research tool
Marketing and pricing tool
CRM tool
Call center software tool
Online search tool

So what will happen to the existing software providers for all of the above at this FTSE company who get replaced by Nvidia LLM/MSFT Co-pilot (or equivalent)?

Let everyone make up their own mind over the next 3-5 years where the existential risks are in the new world order post AI roll out...

dyor/nai etc

[takeiteasy] 27/6/2024 07:32

FTSE company announcement RNS today (name irrelevant)- the AI large language model revolution is already underway. This is the boring UK for goodness sakes now at the cutting edge :)

Enhanced deployment of AI to personalise customer experience:

· Significant upgrade to our algorithms by incorporating individual customer level data into our gift recommendation engine, unlocking the ability to show different price ranges to different cohorts.

· Introduced personalisation elements into all parts of the journey, including homepage banners and promotions unique to the individual customer.

· Enhanced the capabilities of our AI-powered Customer Service chatbot, driving a significant reduction in the number of customer contacts being handled by agents.

· Launched AI semantic search capability, using large language models to better understand and interpret customer search terms, which will drive increasingly more relevant search results over time.

nai/dyor

[takeiteasy] 27/6/2024 05:06

Jackson expects Nvidia stock to hit $250 by the end of the year, representing potential upside of 101% from current levels. Such a rally, if it materializes, would value the AI-chip company at a stunning $6 trillion. And it's all because Nvidia stock is still cheap on a valuation basis, according to Jackson.

"Over the last five years, Nvidia's average look forward price-earnings multiple has been 40 times. Yesterday, after this two-day correction, it was 39 times forward price-earnings. But there have been three times in the last five years where it's had a look forward price-earnings multiple of over 50x, and two times in the last five years where it's gotten just about to 70x and then it pulled back. So we just haven't seen that euphoria yet," Jackson told CNBC on Tuesday.

nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 27/6/2024 05:02

Discount 13.5% - so a small amount of progress over 2024 on this...

[takeiteasy] 26/6/2024 06:31

"PCT’s manager believes that the software sector looks increasingly exposed as a loser in the AI race. Investment in AI, the manager argues, is crowding out spend on other technology sectors, including software, and this is likely to heighten as the prevalence of AI grows. Capex spending will be focused on semiconductors, networks, and infrastructure at the likely expense of software, the manager says, adding that it is unsure if the benefits of AI will translate to applications and whether ‘pre-AI’ software companies are best placed to capture them". further update from PCT trust

nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 25/6/2024 13:54

nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 24/6/2024 22:05

hxxps://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-price-prediction-upside-200-per-share-target-ai-2024-6
hxxps://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/nvidia-strikes-major-ai-deal-in-the-middle-east/ar-BB1oNfOU?cvid=0a39a8ff1a574a319ddc9f09b1c150ba&ei=10
dyor nai etc

[takeiteasy] 23/6/2024 20:33

What is very interesting is that the names from the AI index tracker that have been most smashed up in 2024 YTD are some really bright spark quality names with strong historical pedigrees e.g.MondoDB -44%,Snowflake -36%, Rapid7 -33%,Etsy -26%, Dassault system -22%, Shopify -16% and Veracyte -18%

Why should our manager diversify into these types of tech mid caps and arguably reduce his returns?

Rather than call this an AI bubble, it looks like to me a massive flight to quality and mega cap safety in the markets atm until the dust settles on the reshaping of the industry...sell first and ask questions afterwards maybe?

nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 22/6/2024 06:45

nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 22/6/2024 05:53

Our manager remains firm in his conviction AI may cause real harm to specific parts of IT industry. While MSFT/Google hit ATHs yesterday, in the holdings in the broadly diversified L&G AI ETF following a quick scan
-30 holdings lost money in 2024
-15 holdings down > 10% in 2024
-7 holdings down > 20% in 2024
-performance YTD 41% behind ours in 2024

I am coming around to our manager's view that much of the wealth of AI atm is accruing to the large cap global tech giants and those specialist infrastructure firms closely tied to these giants e.g. Arista networks with Nvidia.

Outside of these very narrow confines, the evidence is starting to build that disruptive AI risks to other tech firms can hugely impact short term fund performance for a broadly diversified fund.

all imvho/nai/dyor etc

[takeiteasy] 21/6/2024 05:56

hxxps://x.com/MLCapMan/status/1802737619274473796/photo/1

-Our manager qualified and approved in quantum computing - step after AI
-Astonishing commitment to his own CPD to stay one step ahead of tech investing rivals
-Proactive planning to assist in extending his winning run atm (he hopes)
-Discount finally down a little to 10-12 percent from 18%
-Hoping one day for a premium not a discount, allow manager to issue new shares and let him build up a bigger franchise - does he not deserve the chance :)

dyor/nai etc

[shavian] 20/6/2024 09:15

It's rarely wrong to lock in some profit. I have not done so with MNL .. yet.