Mallett Share Discussion Threads

[11_percent] 28/9/2022 09:30

“Keep Calm & Carry On”

I see what you mean now.

I see now that this was posted yesterday to the Private Blog.....and have just looked at the blog posts.....it ahs not showed up in my Private Blog as I am now Basic membership.

[atlantic57] 28/9/2022 09:29

Thanks I will read and digest

[11_percent] 28/9/2022 09:16

a57,

I have terminated my "Plus" membership of Soc and now only have the "Basic" membership.....so might be missing some Private Blogs.

$55 was too much for the Plus membership......and I am now using that money on a Full membership of Tom Luongo.

I find he gives a better and deeper analysis.

[11_percent] 28/9/2022 09:10

On 01/09/22, private blog......"The Decline and Fall of Britain".

It does not let me cut and paste again, so, I will summaries it.

Long term prediction for the £ has not changed. 82 cents by 2027.

A break of the August low will warn that the £ remains weak short term.

Our projections of a strong $ are linked to geopolitics. People are realizing that old economic theories no longer work.
Nations in the West are self-destructing.....money flees to US.....which means the $........same as WW1 and WW2.
After WW2, US had 72% of world gold.

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I find that his video interviews are best for me understanding and getting the "big picture connections" on what he is talking about.

His interviews are now all about the geopolitics.

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This one is good in that it concentrates on economics.

USA Watchdog article & interview with Martin Armstrong.
At last, some positive comments regarding gold from him.
"Armstrong has never been more positive on buying gold. Why? Armstrong explains, “We are looking at a sovereign debt default."




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He is saying that the fall in US indexes will not be like 1930s........because of the difference......which is that $s will flow into the US.

However.......the US$ is fiat and will go the same way as the World Fiat currencies.
THIS IS WHY MONEY WILL GO THEN GO INTO TANGEABLE ASSETS.
The money that has gone into the US and the $......will not go into/or come out of US bonds (no trust in Gov)....and will go into tangible assets.......which is US shares and in particular the DOW.
This is why does not see a fall in US indexes as per 1930s.

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He now seems to write in the style of a Chartist talking of levels of support.

What I think is happening is.........there several analysis sections/parts in Soc.

Soc does a traditional Chartist technical analysis......reversals, resistance, support, etc.

There is also an analysis....I don't know what it is.....that looks at trends in these indexes...and makes predictions on future levels. This is based on all the data is collected.

This is what picks up the geopolitical events.....and he then merges the 2 analysis types.

I think there several analysis types that are combined.

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[atlantic57] 28/9/2022 02:50

It looks like Armstrong’s Prediction for the pound dollar rate was to generous.
Andrew Bailey said he would not hesitate to raise interest rates and then hesitated.

If you have the time how did he sum up keep calm and carry on this sounds like a reference to the U.K.


I am still unclear on his overall view as I am sure his previous theme was money would keep pouring into the USA thus driving up indices.

He now seems to write in the style of a Chartist talking of levels of support.

[11_percent] 25/9/2022 07:11

Thanks a57.

Have been increasing my short as the month went on.

I don't think the fall in the $ and £ are over........likewise US indexes.

[atlantic57] 23/9/2022 18:37

Well done eleven you made a great call !
I see that Armstrong is talking bye Europe

[11_percent] 13/9/2022 08:20

Can only agree.

S&P (representative of US indexes).

The down trend that started on 16th Aug....continued till 6th Sept...so I guess you could say there was a drop on the 1st week of Sept...stretching it a bit.
It was a continuation of the trend.

We are now trending up.....7th Sept till today........5 out of 6 up days.

There has been no up-date on the Blog or Private Blog.

I went short at the start of Sept......and now under water.

[atlantic57] 10/9/2022 17:11

Eleven what are your thoughts now on Mae utterances.

10 days on us markets appear to have had modest falls which have now been all but reversed.

Markets do not appear ready to roll over.

The Fed seem intent on raising rates but the us economy does not appear to be tanking.

[11_percent] 02/9/2022 08:01

And this on the DOW.

==============

The Pandemonium in the Dow
THURSDAY, 01 SEPTEMBER 2022 BY: MARTIN ARMSTRONG

The Dow finished August in a bearish state with the resistance during September forming at the 32900 to 33300 level above. The major support lies at the 27100 level down to 26700. Personally, I do not like that we have a Panic Cycle in the month of September ahead of the Midterm elections. What can be the fundamental is anything from an expansion of the war in Ukraine to an indictment of Trump in this absurd political attack that the Democrats think will embolden people to vote Democrat. Lindsey Grahm said this could lead to civil unrest and the press reported that as a THREAT so now lock him up and claim that was an insurrection as well.

Human nature never changes. If you want to see what the left will do and how they will do it, just look to China and Russia. They are playing out the very same strategy that ended in civil wars and the death of over 200 million people. This time they cheer that because they also want population reduction.

The slogans are the very same as those used in both Russia and China. In both cases, they claimed to be the "moral authority" to justify killing all who resisted in what became the great purge in both places. The left always seeks to DIVIDE the people and that is what this WOKENESS is all about. It is no longer a united people as Americans, but were are now all divided into segments and told the other is our oppressor. They also suppressed free speech to prevent opposition and here again we have the new "cancel culture" and anyone who disagreed with COVID restrictions was placing the entire world at risk and had to be silenced.

They are deliberately changing our very nature and culture. They are doing that in Europe forcing a central policy upon all and they are doing that here in America with all the demands of federalism using Abortion as one tool to attack even the religious culture of one region against another.

The rule of law has collapsed. The raid on Trump's home has been so demoralizing to the country and divisive, that the FBI has demanded redacting the names of the agents because they know the division they have created. They seem to want violence so they can justify fences and storm troops rounding up the evil ones who resist this cultural revolution the same as what took place in China and Russia.

The greatest enemy is NOT Putin nor is it Xi. America will fall from within. This is what is behind the computer forecasts. Opinion differs and this is not a time for personal opinions. All we can do is rely upon the computer to target when such events are possible.

September must be approached with both an open mind and open eyes. Something is unfolding in the wind and it is all about trying to retain power in Washington. Just like they had to get rid of Trump, this is a battle that they do not intend to allow anything to flip to the Republicans. This time, the failure of the Republicans to score a victory is perhaps what the computer is warning about in 2023 with a year of sheer chaos.

This will be a battle to the DEATH of Western culture and freedom.

[11_percent] 02/9/2022 08:00

I suspect prospects For the uk are bleak

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Has just posted this blog.



The Decline & Fall of Britain
THURSDAY, 01 SEPTEMBER 2022 BY: MARTIN ARMSTRONG

Our long-term projection for the British pound has not changed. The ideal target remains 82 cents by 2027. Britain is without a leader right now after Johnson has thoroughly pushed the British economy over the edge. The close of August was very weak. Even Putin sent three warships into the Irish Sea as a warning after Johnson's stupid remarks that he would use nuclear weapons outside of NATO against Moscow.

The sun is setting this time on the British Empire. A simple break of the August low will continue to warn that the British pound remains weak even near-term.

Our projections for the dollar rising are linked to geopolitics. People have to realize that the old theories no longer work. We are in a new age where nations are self-destructing in what perhaps history will call the Cultural Revolution of the West that will destroy society the same as took place in both Russia and China.

[atlantic57] 01/9/2022 09:42

Numerous experts are talking a 50 to 80
Percent Crash.
The money has to go somewhere and the USA
Currently is The least ugliest sister.

I suspect prospects For the uk are bleak

[11_percent] 01/9/2022 09:11

Ref post 529.

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A Detailed interview on Panic cycles.

My take on this is that he is mainly talking about politics .I think on financial markets he reckons that money pouring in from Europe is likely to keep the us markets on a limited downside risk.

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Yes....he was talking about the politics.

There is a main section on the "2022 Panic Cycle in Politics".

Soc will flag up a Panic Cycle........but it does not say what it is caused by........and this where MA tries to interpret current event to explain what the Panic Cycle is about.

[atlantic57] 30/8/2022 12:00

Well I’m guessing the Recent Past Has
Been Up So Down would Be the change

[11_percent] 30/8/2022 08:38

The S&P 500 Prospects
MONDAY, 29 AUGUST 2022 BY: MARTIN ARMSTRONG

Chart of S&P 500 Index - Yearly.
It shows a Channel....referred to below.


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I attended your WEC last year. It was a great experience. I will be back this year. My question is if the S&P500 rallies into 2032, just how high is high? I know it is also a reflection of the dollar itself.

Thank you for Socrates, BTW.

GD

ANSWER: The minimum target project is 4914 whereas the more reasonable target will be 6859. Yes, this is a question of what the dollar really is by that time. You are correct. It is always a spread with the currency.

Nonetheless, the basic uptrend channel in 2032 will be 5989 on the top and 3855 on the bottom. However, 2021 exceeded that channel and closed above it. So, I would tend to bet more on the potential for a 6859 high in 2032.

Near-term, we have a Directional Change tomorrow. The critical support this week lies well below the market at 3950-3900. That is the key area to hold at this time. A closing above 4157 will tens to warn the a temporary low is in place for now.

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"Near-term, we have a Directional Change tomorrow.".......dont know if that direction change is up, or down.....I dont have the Array.

[11_percent] 30/8/2022 08:17

Will watch that interview......also an other Private Blog on the S&P.

[atlantic57] 29/8/2022 20:31

A Detailed interview on Panic cycles

My take on this is that he is mainly talking about politics .I think on financial markets he reckons that money pouring in from Europe is likely to keep the us markets on a limited downside risk.

[11_percent] 29/8/2022 08:40

Two Charged for Revealing Ashley Biden’s Diary

[11_percent] 29/8/2022 08:37

My gut feel is that the DOW is going down this week.

[11_percent] 29/8/2022 08:36

"The Crash in the Dow on Friday on the tough talk from Powell at Jackson Hole came interesting on the Panic Cycle for the week of 8/22. However, we now face a turning point this coming week, straddled September."


Ok, the DOW went down on Friday due to Powells 8 min warning (rates are going up).....true.


"came interesting on the Panic Cycle for the week of 8/22."
He is saying that this drop came on the WEKLY panic cycle for the DOW.
The blog is headed by the DOW - WEEKLY ARRAYS. The week of 22/08/22 does indeed show a panic cycle.
This the first time i have seen this array....so I cant say when this panic cycle showed up.
I have Plus Membership, which does give you Arrays. I assume Pro Membership get them.

Anyway....the DOW Weekly Array shows a TURNING POINT between the weeks of 22/08 and 29/08.....its POSITIVE......as he says....it straddles Aug/Sept.
The implication here is that Friday was low....and the DOW will RISE this week......w/c 29/08/22.

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The next sentence is a new topic.

"The next Panic Cycle appears to be the week of October 17th which would be a 10-month target from the high in the Dow."

The array shows a PANIC CYCLE w/c 17th Oct......ok.
He is saying that date is 10 months from the HIGH in the DOW.....which I have back on w/c Monday 3rd January......about 10 months.

So....the October PANIC CYCLE IS on plan for the 10 month TARGET....from the January HIGH. Not sure where this 10-month target comes from.

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As I have said, we MUST respect that the Federal Reserve has ONLY one tool under Keynesian Economics.

OK....we keep this in mind.


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Next paragraph.....some comment.

The Fed must raise interest rates and curtail expanding the money supply. This is causing some people to be confused. But I have warned that the Fed has NO CHOICE for it is blamed by politicians because regardless of whatever they do, the Fed is to neutralize inflation - an impossible task when the real cause is shortages. Yet now, because prices rose for that reason, everyone else is using that excuse to push prices higher to make up for their losses during COVID.

FED has only interest rates to fight inflation.....will get blamed in any case.
People are putting up prices to make up for CV19 losses.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Powell's remarks were clear. “These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation,” he said at the Fed’s annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole. “But a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain.” There is no possible way for the Fed to address shortages. We have entered already the 2nd quarterly decline in GDP. Of course, that was the historical definition of a recession BEFORE Biden and Wokeness. Now, the word RECESSION is only used during Republican presidencies - Woke Rule #13278.


Rates increase will cause PAIN......but he has got to do it.
Cause of inflation is SHORTAGES.....which FED can do nothing about.
We have entered a recession.

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We still see September itself as a Panic Cycle on the monthly level. So whatever market you may be trading, pay attention to the Reversals, Arrays, and Indicating Ranges. This is not over yet until the Fat Lady Sings, as they used to say before Wokeness refers to Opera and the heavy women had great voices.


We still see September itself as a Panic Cycle on the MONTHLY level.

Remember.......whatever the WEEKLY arrays are telling us.....the MONTHLY arrays are calling September as a Panic Cycle.

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SUMMARY

September (monthly) is a panic cycle.......in what???.....everything???

Weekly panic cycle IN THE DOW w/c 22/08/22.....ok it fell on Friday........but direction change this week....w/c 29/08/22.......so, DOW should rise this week.

Weekly panic cycle out at w/c 17th October.....which is the 10-month TARGET (not sure what target) from the DOW high.....w/c 1st January.

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So far this week....Monday 29th Aug.....the DOW is steady,,,,,,although the DOW futures for today is down 2oo odd points.

[atlantic57] 28/8/2022 07:35

Eleven I welcome your interpretation of the language he uses.

He seems to be saying that markets are going to fall immediately .

Then maybe a period of sideways trading followed by another sharp fall in mid October .
Or is he saying the opposite that we have had a sharp fall and the panic cycle sends us upwards.

[atlantic57] 27/8/2022 08:28

Thanks Eleven

Correct me if I am wrong but the Bond Market did not appear to buy the Powell speech.
I think long term interest rates did not move much.