Mallett Share Discussion Threads

[atlantic57] 11/8/2020 20:25

Ok guys the pullback in gold is here .
No doubt Socratese will say that he saw it coming and predicted.

I suspect that we are in for a period of consolidation now with a downward bias.
Medium term though I believe the omens for gold remain positive.

[atlantic57] 09/8/2020 19:37

Interesting interview With David Hunter




This guy at least makes clear predictions even if he is wrong.

[11_percent] 09/8/2020 13:22

There have been 9 posts this past week. They are:

Tues 4th Aug – Why is the market up, and economy down.
Tues 4th Aug – Gold and silver.
Wed 5th Aug – US Share Market.
Wed 5th Aug – European Banks Under Stress and Markets.
Wed 5th Aug – Were they realy too smart.
Thurs 6th Aug – Gold Leasing & Negative Interest Rates.
Thurs 6th Aug – The Decent into Authoritarianism.
Fri 7th Aug – US Share Market Reasoning.
Sat 8th Aug – The pending slingshot.

As previous posters have pointed out, these posts contain data which contradicts/up-dates previous posts on indexes / markets moves. However, these “up-dates̶1; are mixed into blogs that are wide ranging and it is not immediately obvious that they are an up-date.

I will take these up-dates from the blogs and try to relate them to previous blogs on the indexes, gold/silver, FX, etc.

This is not to ignore the political/economic points made in the blogs which people can comment on.
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Tues 4th Aug – Why is the market up, and economy down.
No direct comment on market levels and movements.
# Number 1 SELL recommendation – Sell Gov debt.
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Tues 4th Aug – Gold and silver.

We warned that for gold to breakout we needed to see the gold/silver ratio peak. That indeed took place in July and was the Directional Change target that signalled this change.

Comment on…..Monetary Crisis Cycle…….collapse of confidence in Gov……..Gov debt = 10x value of equities, so does not need much transfer to see equities sore.
Array of gold/silver RATIO.

Volatility in the RATIO will increase Aug through Oct….election related.
Comment on the US elections.

Graph of nearest silver futures.
Silver has outperformed gold on this rally and I still believe it will continue to do so in the years ahead. This is due mainly to the fact that there are fewer restriction on silver compared to gold as Govs continue to hunt money. We elected FOUR Monthly Bullish Reversals at the end of June which fed nicely into the July Directional Change.

This seems to be playing out with either a rally into the election as people fear a Democratic victory and MMT comes into play or a decline into October. A Trump victory would probably bring the metals back down into January, but thereafter, we see this Monetary Crisis Cycle and the Sovereign Debt Crisis come into play. Additionally, this shortage in the supply chain of many things from food to plywood will bring inflation up sharply into 2024.

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Previous blogs, end of July, highlighted a temporary high in gold in July, which has not happened.

There was a blog on the gold/silver ratio, which played out.

Now saying there was “We elected FOUR Monthly Bullish Reversals at the end of June which fed nicely into the July Directional Change.”…;..which was for a temp high in Gold.

I would have thought that four monthly bullish reversals would point to a rising gold price, but I guess that was not in line with the Arrays.

“This seems to be playing out with either a rally into the election as people fear a Democratic victory and MMT comes into play or a decline into October.”
Long term saying that gold is going up……R30;because of Monetary Crisis Cycle and the Sovereign Debt Crisis…..and inflation going up into 2024.

[atlantic57] 08/8/2020 09:01

Patient capital everyone has a view some are saying 50 000 dollars .

Armstrong is more like 5000 dollars

[patientcapital] 08/8/2020 08:01

Punchy:"One of the more bullish calls was made by the best-selling author Jim Rickards. "If you are going to have a gold standard, or even use gold as a reference point for money, the implied, non-deflationary price is $15,000 an ounce," Rickards told Kitco News. Here's his calculation: "If you just took the money supply of the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan and People's Bank of China (that's over 75% of global GDP) divide that number by the official gold [reserves], which are about 34,000 metric tons, you come to $15,000 an ounce."" - Kitco

[atlantic57] 06/8/2020 19:06

With respect 11
I could write a blog like this.
Something may happen in the future.In the meantime huge upside has been missed.

[11_percent] 06/8/2020 09:55

I have had a quick look at the blogs.
They are quite long and complicated.

I don't have much time at the moment, and will go through them at the weekend.....and try to post what they are saying and what was said in the past.

I note that he is still saying there will be re-test of the March lows (in the US indexes, although he is making a differentiation in them).....some time in the future.

[georgethefourth] 05/8/2020 13:42

No i can't really follow what he's saying either. Seems to change his mind every five minutes and post such vague comments that they're practically useless

[11_percent] 05/8/2020 07:54

Have not looked yet, will do it and make a write-up.

Silver has broke $26 which was a key target........$30 in short order.
I have FR which is most leveraged to the silver price....or so I am told.

[atlantic57] 05/8/2020 07:28

The Dow

Again he has changed his tune .
I certainly can’t make any sense of his comments ,if you guys can well done.

[atlantic57] 05/8/2020 07:26

11 percent my prejudices and preconceptions on Charting has been confirmed.

Gold

For months he has been saying that momentum and energy was drying up.
Various dates for a temporary high were predicted all were wrong.

He has now produced another update.

[11_percent] 04/8/2020 21:13

Silver is struggling to get through $26.....

[11_percent] 04/8/2020 21:13

Gold blasts through $2000........now 2017.....

So much for a high in gold.

[patientcapital] 04/8/2020 07:53

CNBC:"Gold may test $2,000-$2,100 in 'very near term': Deutsche Bank""Gold prices have more room to go, with weakening in the U.S. dollar and U.S. real rates helping them to go higher, says Michael Hsueh from Deutsche Bank"

[atlantic57] 01/8/2020 08:49

Socrates pontification son Gold continue to push things further and further into the future and again look in every direction at the same time.

I am sure that if you Were listening to previous forecasts from a few years ago he was saying January 2020 was the turning point for gold.

I guess no one knows the answer and we must be guided by our own judgement.
Hindsight is a great teacher.

I believe most investors failed to grasp the significance of Covid 19 in January believing it would be contained in China.

[11_percent] 31/7/2020 20:22

A blog on FX......its short and sweat.

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Thurs 30 July 2020 - 94650 Dollar Index Cash For July Close

A close below 94650 for July will imply there is a risk of a further decline into October.

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Standing at 93375


This one I can believe.

There are 2 ETFs.

LEU3 WisdomTree Long EUR Short USD 3x Daily

SEU3 WISDOMTREE FOREIGN EXCHANGE LIMITED WISDOMTREE SHORT EUR LONG USD 3X DAILY

I have been using LEU3 as the Euro has risen against the US$.
Will continue the trade and increase on Monday.

[11_percent] 31/7/2020 19:55

Indeed a57.

I don't think we are going to see a pull back in gold.

Will look at the data tomorrow, and we can see how next month goes.

[11_percent] 31/7/2020 19:55

Indeed a57.

I don't think we are going to see a pull back in gold.

Will look at the data tomorrow, and we can see how next month goes.

[atlantic57] 31/7/2020 09:08

11 thanks

I am not finding Socratese much use the computer seems to be looking in the rear view mirror.

Looking forwards he just covers every possible scenario.

[11_percent] 31/7/2020 08:46

Overhead resistance at 1976......and we are sitting on 1974.



That needs…..July to close above 1926 and for August to make new highs.

Cant see gold going under 1926 by the close......so July was not the temp high.

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HGM

I got mugged this morning.......take out at 300p.

[11_percent] 29/7/2020 09:50

PC,

OK.

[patientcapital] 29/7/2020 07:22

Adjusted for inflation.

[atlantic57] 29/7/2020 07:18

Eleven As previously discussed on this bb the talking heads have pretty much a concensus view here.

Socratese is sticking his knock out to nail down time periods of highs.

Let us see what unfolds.

A pause or modest pullback is expected by most commentators

[11_percent] 28/7/2020 23:43

PatientCapital28 Jul '20 - 20:41 - 336 of 338
0 0 0
Nominal highs for gold aren’t high enough in real terms.

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Not quite sure what you mean.

[11_percent] 28/7/2020 23:42

a57,

He has covered both angles, so lets see.