Mallett Share Discussion Threads

[patientcapital] 08/9/2020 21:53

Markets can only be fooled for so long. It is going to be a long winter.

[atlantic57] 08/9/2020 21:14

Agreed ma was spot on to the day.

Unfortunately he had given numerous predictions before .

I am not selling my long positions because I have not got the ability to sell high and buy low.

However I have held some cash back so we will see what unfolds.

The fed are meeting the week after next I would have thought that they will take some form of action if they do nothing Trump will be approaching election day with a plunging stock market.

[11_percent] 08/9/2020 19:41

If this continues....MA was spoton.....to the day.....

[atlantic57] 08/9/2020 16:50

Markets are certainly crashing now.

[atlantic57] 06/9/2020 08:17

Looking back at 1929 ,yes indeed we have been expecting that pattern to repeat for some time and it makes good sense.This was why I missed out on the huge rally since March as kept expecting the pull back as did Ma.

However we need I think to reconcile two opposite forces which Ma has consistently spoken of.

On the one hand he has consistently spoken of a major pullback .
On the other hand he has also consistently spoken of huge flight of capital from Government to equities.

Perhaps there has to be a sharp fall before the slingshot !
I will pose a question on the blogg

[patientcapital] 06/9/2020 07:55

Overdue I believe. Look back at the Dow in the few years following 1929. Huge swings within the overall negative trend.

[11_percent] 06/9/2020 07:45

On two occasions I sold my Nasdaq investments when the market dropped on both occasions the market came storming back and I ended up paying A lot more for the same positions.


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Snap.....I bought the Nasdq as it went up.......and when it fell, I thought it was the retest as MA was suggesting.

However, there are a lot of people mow saying that this is the retest, or at least a consolidation in the US indexes.

Lets see.

[atlantic57] 05/9/2020 09:40

I have no short positions

The miners look a good bet to me on a 2 year view.
Equities expect Volatilty but again where else can you put your money.

My record in attempting to trade highs and lows in indices is not good.

It is better for me to stay long.

On two occasions I sold my Nasdaq investments when the market dropped on both occasions the market came storming back and I ended up paying A lot more for the same positions.

[11_percent] 05/9/2020 09:12

I am generally long shares.....but do have one small short using QQQS etf which I put on, on Friday.

My mining shares (and PMs) I will keep.....whatever.

What I am looking for is what happened in the mad period April/May......when there were wild swings in shares/indexes/oil......and if you were on the right side you made a packet......with a little leverage.

MA has been calling this rally in the US indexes a temp high for a while and he has got to be right at some point.

I think Powel is going to print money whatever.....not just to support the US share indexes but also to give to people justt o try and keep the real economy going.

As MA says......the US election is going to a war.

[atlantic57] 05/9/2020 08:47

Eleven if you are shorting the market then you deserve the rewards .

I am not able to make those judgements.
In my view if the markets Tumble Trump ahead of an imminent election will put pressure on Powell to print more money.

[11_percent] 05/9/2020 08:42

I would watch.....MA has a habit of being right.....and this could be the crash/re-test he has talked about.

I will see how the indexes trade overnight Sunday/Monday......and Monday in UK. Then take a decision Monday afternnon.

[11_percent] 05/9/2020 08:37

a57,

Yes, as i said at the end of my last post.....I dont know where this leaves us.

However, in general.....markets are in a bubble and a correction would not be unexpected.....my opinion.

I read the blog as saying........we are going to support at 22,750......but we did not close under 228.039......so i dont where that leaves us.
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"The last fomc meeting Powell spoke of support but Did not bring in any new measures."

IMO, the last thing standing is the stock market and Powell will do ANYTHIG to support them. However, if we see hard selling, it is hard to see what he could do to support the markets.....short of the FED just buying shares.

[atlantic57] 05/9/2020 07:55

Eleven with respect his language is increasingly

We may see

For me personally general trends is useful short term outlook not useful.

The last fomc meeting Powell spoke of support but Did not bring in any new measures.

Therefore the stock market without further stimulas is unlikely to advance.The dollar in the absence of more money printing was likely to strengthen meaning Gold would be under pressure,

Money printing will be the major drivers for financial markets gold and also pound sterling .Hard brexit also relevent.

[11_percent] 05/9/2020 07:39

Hi a57, I think we need to hange on a bit.

The prediction was:

"Once the DOW breaks the previous weeks low following a high during the week of August 31st, this will technically warn that we may indeed see a correction."

Ok.....this has now happened on the DOW (and the other indexes). (I use the graphs on IG for my reference).
He said this on Monday 24th August.

So far so good.

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We now have a blog:

Friday 4th September – So far so good – Correction is here.

So far so good. The target week of August 31st appears to be shaping up as expected right down to the ideal day of Sept 3rd.

We still see the market declining into October and a close today below 28039 level on the DOW will tend to confirm we should expect to see a further decline over the next 2 weeks.

The major support basis the DOW will be 22750 and a monthly closing below that level will still warn that we may yet see new lows, but they could even extend into 2022.

Our initial support will be found at 26600. That is the area which must hold on a monthly closing basis or we will see a further decline ahead.

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3rd was mentioned in the previous blog......"Even 1929 peaked on September 3rd."


"We still see the market declining into October and a close today below 28039 level on the DOW will tend to confirm we should expect to see a further decline over the next 2 weeks."

I have a 28,082 close. (IG, eg out of hours).
I have a 28,133 close (at close of trading).

So, DOW closed over 28,039.........dont know where this leaves us.

These blogs have a tendency to quote closing numbers and predictions about closing above or below this number. It would be better if the blog was posted after close....and we would know where we are.

===============

Personally, the US markets feel very high........and we have a 3 day weekend with the Monday holiday........I think selling will continue on Monday.

[atlantic57] 03/9/2020 07:39

Eleven I am reverting back to my original use of Mae which is an overview of politics and cycles.

His record here has been good but his blogs on predicting short term movements have been a disaster.

For example he states that Governments will not allow crypto currencies to offer an alternative financing system.

That makes sense.

However in the short term for example a crypto currency known as yarn finance yfi in 46 days went from approximately 35 dollars to 38 000 dollars.

I would not pay for the higher subscription levels as the language he uses is to vague.

Good luck

[11_percent] 03/9/2020 07:09

I see there is a blog on the US markets that was posted last night.....I will have a look at it.

[11_percent] 03/9/2020 07:00

a75,

You also said.
"Remember we were told for months that the market was about to crash."


Indeed, he is telling us that again, for this week......and it does not look like it will happen.

On the contrary.....US markets are powering ahead.

Yes, I own AMZN now, and it has done very well.

[11_percent] 03/9/2020 06:58

a57,

I am just trying to follow the blogs.

The 3 blogs I detailed in post 374 all say that the DOW is about to make a high in the week commecing Monday 31st Aug.

The blog of Monday 24th August – The DOW into the future, gave us:

"Once the DOW breaks the previous weeks low following a high during the week of August 31st, this will technically warn that we may indeed see a correction."


So......loking att he DOW for this week. (I use the IG 24 hour out of hours graphs).

The DOW has clearly made "a high during the week of Aug 31st".

MA is saying that if we now get a low....lower than the previous weeks low.....than we are in for a correction.

Ita Thursday, and it does not look like we will get that low......we would need to drop over 1,000 points by Friday close.

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I personaly, have been long and am staying long......i guess, against MA advice.

[atlantic57] 02/9/2020 20:13

11 today’s post on the Dow appears to contradict the previous posts that you have just posted.He is now talking about a possible inverse cycle.

Remember we were told for months that the market was about to crash.

It is surely readily apparent that certain companies like Amazon have boomed despite the coronavirus.

[11_percent] 02/9/2020 12:05

Once the DOW breaks the previous weeks low following a high during the week of August 31st, this will technically warn that we may indeed see a correction.

=======

Ok.....we are in week starting 31st Aug.

The DOW has made a "high" in thia week......lets see if it breaks the previous weeks low.


At the moment.....US idexes are looking strong.....and I am long.....although watching for any correction.

[11_percent] 30/8/2020 09:54

The DOW - Wed 19th August 2020

We still see August as a directional change and the ideal target week is that of the 31st. Thereafter the next target will be October……;..


Monday 24th August – The DOW into the future

There is still the risk of a continued rally into the week of August 31st (of Aug).

Friday closed slightly lower than the previous week. There still remains the risk of a crash which is often seasonal window between September going into October. Even 1929 peaked on September 3rd. Once the DOW breaks the previous weeks low following a high during the week of August 31st, this will technically warn that we may indeed see a correction. ……aligns with Array forecasts….


Tuesday 25th August – DOW Index Changes

Interestingly, as of the 31st August which has been our target for a turning point in the stock market for this immediate run, the DOW is being changed to …….
Then follows details of the changes.

This change coming the very week in the DOW in our Array is forecasting. The may be buying the high?.

=========

Basically saying that the week commencing 31st Aug will be a high in the DOW (and other indexes).


Once the DOW breaks the previous weeks low following a high during the week of August 31st, this will technically warn that we may indeed see a correction

[11_percent] 29/8/2020 19:47

a57,

Agreed......I was trying to be kind.

I am not sure where MA/Soc is on the US indexes, but they feel high to me......the values are pain crazy. However, these bubbles tend to go on longer than you expect.

I am a bit peeved that I missed the rally from the crash lows....was always on the wrong side, loking for the re-test.

[atlantic57] 29/8/2020 11:10

hxxps://jimrickards.blogspot.com/2020/08/jim-rickards-discusses-covid-19.html

interesting

[atlantic57] 29/8/2020 08:46

Eleven there are numerous talking heads out there.
What set Socratese apart until January 20 was that in general trends it got it right.

However the ability to be+market specific in a time frame has clearly shown that Socratese is no better Or worse than its competitors.

At the basic level of subscription it is fair value.

In all the markets I follow , equities gold sterling and oil I would say.

The comments made have not been of any use.

On Equities he has been wrong for months .The other markets he just looks in every direction at the same time.

It is anyone’s guess what will happen next but commentators like Jordan on the Daily gold Give very specific commentary which you can use.

2020 so far has been a very bad year for Mae in terms of specific commentary.

[11_percent] 29/8/2020 08:04

US markets still making highs......looks like the retest of crash lows (detailed in the blogs) did not happen.

However, some comintators are now talking about the US markets getting too high and a drop is in order.