Mallett Share Discussion Threads

[atlantic57] 26/8/2022 20:21

Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow ETFs crumble following Powell’s hawkish rhetoric

The ladies comments in my previous post have been vindicated today.
No sign yet of Powell reversing policy

[atlantic57] 26/8/2022 07:24

This is a very good interview in my opinion.
Not a big name speaker

[11_percent] 25/8/2022 12:30

So, interest rates going up.......shares crash at some point.

The two wild cards are Ukraine and Taiwan......yes...WW3.

[atlantic57] 25/8/2022 12:08

Eleven

It is difficult to see how equity markets can make significant progress in this environment.Unless the Fed clearly indicate that interest rates have peaked and monetary
Tightening has stopped .Sideways at best for me.

The two wild cards are Ukraine and Taiwan

[11_percent] 25/8/2022 11:54

For those that follow MA.......there is an other guy who is like MA on speed.

Its Tom Luongo......takls about the politics as per MA....but in a lot more detail.

[11_percent] 25/8/2022 11:48

That blog by MA is as definite as it gets....watch for the first week of September.

It is in line with a lot market commentators......they are saying US share indexes are in a Bear Market Rally........and look for a crash.......say 20%.

[atlantic57] 25/8/2022 09:46

Thanks for taking the time 11
Surely by saying Markets can go up or down
He Is covering All angles

[atlantic57] 25/8/2022 08:06

Is Martins latest blog comment on September Dow in line with his previous comments which seemed to imply that September which you have previously posted.

[atlantic57] 17/8/2022 03:50

I believe he has now posted beware of September

[atlantic57] 14/8/2022 21:10

I have listened to the talk.
It is mainly a political rant...

[atlantic57] 14/8/2022 18:55

kmon Thanks for posting ,So Armstrong thinks there will be a stock market collapse in
September.Well his predictions on how the markets would react to Covid were completely wrong.

Other Predictions well he seems look in every direction at the same time and then says that he predicted it would happen.

I will listen to it.

My experience with him is that gets the big picture right over a reasonable time scale say 3 years but short term he comes up with so much stuff covering every possibility it is difficult to see what is correct.

I am sure at one stage he said that the Covid lockdowns had decimated economys to such an extent that inflation would not be an issue .I think he also said that the lockdowns would create supply side inflation.

I am at a loss as to how to use the information he provides

[11_percent] 01/8/2022 09:14

Link to MA interview.

By Kerry Lutz:

“We’re seeing oil price shocks, commodity booms and busts, and various factors that are threatening to de-throne the US dollar. Why is this happening, and what does this mean for the global economy? I have Martin Armstrong on the show to discuss this, and he explains the various changes that have occurred—such as sanctions in Russia and countries opting to not borrow in dollars—that put the dollar at risk. Not only is the dollar in danger in these conditions—this shift in currency use greatly affects the world economy. Tune in for more information.”

[11_percent] 01/8/2022 08:44

I was agreeing with your take on the general situation.

===========

A war in Ukraine
B Huge government debt
C very Poor quality political leaders.

The Fed are now between a rock and hard place and with the markets now powering ahead I can’t see Powell blinking until he was forced to.

Stagflation is here for sure

[atlantic57] 30/7/2022 06:37

Interview with Jim Rickards

[atlantic57] 30/7/2022 06:02

11 which bits do you not agree with.

I keep making the same in principle errors.
10 years ago I was sitting on huge gains on gold mining shares but was still holding when they tanked.

Ditto 2021 with tech shares

This is why I am still looking to predict what lies ahead.

[11_percent] 29/7/2022 22:41

Agree with most of that.

[atlantic57] 29/7/2022 18:18

Yes agreed this has long been predicted .However there are some big differences now which make things difficult to predict.

A war in Ukraine
B Huge government debt
C very Poor quality political leaders.

Finally as you alluded to in 2018 the stock market plummeted so the Fed was forced into taking action .

The Fed are now between a rock and hard place and with the markets now powering ahead I can’t see Powell blinking until he was forced to.

I could be wrong but that is my take.

Stagflation is here for sure

[11_percent] 29/7/2022 17:45

We are all headed for STAGFLATION......bit like the 70s.

[atlantic57] 29/7/2022 10:46

That makes sense to me I will be back my judgement by staying Out of potential purchases.
The data Suggests the us economy is in recession or it Is Imminent.
However I can’t see Powell cutting rates
With a booming stock market.

[11_percent] 29/7/2022 08:48

Yes......CGP (Chief Goon Powel) did his famous "Powel Pivot" back in December 2018.

He was "normalising" interest rates.....ie, raising them....the US stock market fell out of bed.

He had to stop rising.....them, and cut them.......but the point is...he was PUSHED into it.

What people are saying.....it looks rates may be near peaking.....with this "data driven" talk.

However......he needs a "PUSH"......people think the market needs to push him.....that means a big fall in shares to get CGP to act.

My take.....CGP wont reduce rates until pushed......if the US shares keep goin gup.....CGP will just sit on his hands.

The guys at Hedgeye are saying he needs a push.

[atlantic57] 28/7/2022 17:07

Thanks Eleven that makes sense .
Let us see happens. So most market commentators at this point in time think the bottom is in.
There are others like hegeye who do not believe that .

[11_percent] 28/7/2022 16:54

He has been saying for months if not years that rates will/are going up.....it was telegraphed.....then he put them up.

So, for the last few months is been "full steam ahead"....they are going...and its 0.75%.

Now he has TOTALLY changed that tune.

Its data driven.....on a meeting by meeting basis......he is not saying rates are going up now.

With the recession.....you don't want to raising rates.

There is a chance they have peaked.....or near peak.....which is good for shares.



The conventional wisdom is that rates up, bad for shares.....rates down, good for shares.

This is complete rubbish, but thats how the computer progs that run the market are programmed.

==============

This from a website I read.

The primary reaction of interest was in the bond market where the 2-year note went to 3.06% while the 10-year fell to 2.76%. That's a whopping THIRTY BASIS POINTS of inversion and a sure signal that recession is coming of not already here.

But then the fun started almost as soon as Jerry opened his mouth. He read his statement but then the second question led him to answer a question about what's coming next. These two points are what moved the markets:

We have moved expeditiously to the neutral rate. Implies that 2.25-2.50% IS the neutral rate.
Next meeting is in eight weeks and rate path forward will be dependent upon the data between now and then.
This shoved the POSX sharply lower. Rates fell, too. So, CDG and CDS moved to their highs of the day at $1732 and $18.90.