Mallett Share Discussion Threads

[atlantic57] 25/6/2020 15:41

Gold he appears to have been consistently arguing that Gold will top out in june.

Nasdaq expect a turning point presumabley down

The dow seems to be saying that it will go up and down but the trend is down resistance support etc

[11_percent] 23/6/2020 22:52

Nasdaq for June 23rd 2020 (Tues)

We still see June as a turning point in the Nasdaq, it is poised for at least the intraday high in June or at least the highest monthly closing.
We can see that normal technical resistance stands at 10,236 and the technical support less (lies) down at 9,134.
Closing resistance for June will be 9,845.

Follows paras 2 & 3. AMZN and the paradigm shift away from bricks and mortar to online, where AMZN has 6% of the market and room for expansion.
Left booking seat at Trump rallies and not showing up.

We must be diligent looking at the markets for there remains the risk of oppressive laws and capital controls ahead.

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Seems clear......and I agree, the markets have got out of hand.

High in June.....so 5 trading days left.

Will sell more in the morning.

I watch CNBC a lot, and lot of the guys now saying that this is bubble.

Getting ready to go short.

[atlantic57] 23/6/2020 22:47

Socratese has been very consistent on gold for some time.
However Martin has not commented on his blog for some time.

[11_percent] 23/6/2020 22:31

a57, will have a look at the Soc market for gold.

I had a quick look at the weekend, and I think he said that gold had elected 3 bullish reversals.

[atlantic57] 23/6/2020 10:46

mae daily comments on gold futures very consistent

[atlantic57] 22/6/2020 17:35

Mae still silent on gold.
My take on his previous comments are that Gold will peak in June /July then fall

[atlantic57] 21/6/2020 11:56

This is the problem with interpreting his posts

[11_percent] 21/6/2020 11:02

You realy need to read these posts a few times...….I missed this in my post on the interpretation of MAs post.


"Closing support lies at 25,759 and we need to close below that to imply weakness ahead."


25,871 - close
25,635 - after hours close.

So, take your pick.

[georgethefourth] 20/6/2020 22:16

The August comment as well is interesting. I read that to mean the market could continue up into the week of the 29th June - which is only another 6-10 trading sessions away - at which point the medium term top is in and the trend will be down for all of July and a part of August.

ive sold most of my long holdings now and am still short. Still seeing negative divergences on most of the miners... (I really like the look of PUR though, if that drops to 50 I'll be in there)

[atlantic57] 20/6/2020 17:02

ok guys good to see your comments.

George i agree your comments to a point

a) Furlough will continue for a while so i expect the cold bath of reality will dawn
but it will be delayed ,i would say until the fourth quarter of 2020.

b) Against this , where will people put their money. ? Government bonds and banks will pay zero , so equities are the only place to go

11 percent
You have provided a good summary so we will have to await events now

[11_percent] 20/6/2020 13:41

DOW

25,871 - close
25,635 - after hours close.

That was some swing on Friday......form well up to a 208 point loss.

So, it closed above the 25,200 support level he is giving for next week. My feeling is it will not hold next week.

Needs to hold last weeks low = 24,843 to bounce into the last week of June (29th).
Again, my feeling is it wont hold.....don't know.

Yes......its been pushed back.....now August if the above does not happen.

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Ref your above posts guys, my feeling is that there a lot of people in the US just waiting now for a major fall.

I think it would have happened last week if the FED had not come in and said they were buying company bonds and Trump saying there was going to be big infrastructure spending.

Ok.....I guess if the markets look like falling again......the FED can come in and just say they are going to shares to support the market......its all they have left.

CV-19 is increasing in many US states and I can see the "scientists" saying there needs to be an other lockdown......as MA says.

Will be selling a pile of shares on Monday.

[11_percent] 20/6/2020 13:08

Fri 19/06/20 – The DOW for the close 19th

This weeks low 24,843 is important.
As long as that holds then the market can still bounce into the last week of June 29th and turn down into August.
Closing support lies at 25,759 and we need to close below that to imply weakness ahead.

We still see that a weekly resistance is standing at 27,346 and 27,831.
Even the Russel 2000 has elected 2 weekly bearish reversals s far.

It still appears that we see Fauci and others calling for another shutdown. They are supporting Bill Gates and his consortium against the people.

Next week we see support at the 25,200 level, assuming we close above that today.

[georgethefourth] 20/6/2020 12:12

Atlantic - I'd say the opposite tbh. The market seems to have priced in that when we reopen the economy will be back to normal and everything will be as it was before. It's not though, and I expect once the market adjusts for this stock prices will drop quite a way. Once the furlough scheme ends for example, I'd expect to see many businesses lay people off as demand is muted. Unemployment will rise, consumer spending will drop, bad debts on the banks books will increase. At some point I'd expect to see big infrastructure projects started as a means to alleviate unemployment, and at that point inflation to pick up

[atlantic57] 20/6/2020 12:03

ok his latest update on the Dow lists various targets but now stretching out to august.

As i say it will be interesting Comparing artificial intelligence to my own instinct.

I believe Corona virus will subside in the summer months i believe economies will open up rapidly .

If there is a second wave then autumn is the time when you would expect it to make a comeback.

I cant see why the market would revisit the lows in the next two months.

After the us election or after a return of covid then yes...

[atlantic57] 19/6/2020 16:45

Not much coming out from Martin, i wonder if he is unwell.
he used to comment regularly about gold and stock indices this is now much vaguer and less confident about precise targets.

My analysis for myself going forwards is ...
The destruction wrought by the lock downs is now becoming apparent to the authorities. They will not be doing that again.

The uk also is juggling a potential hard Brexit.
buying government debt does not seem a sensible move.

Therefore the only place will be equities.

Will there be a pull back to the march lows.? My perception of Socrates work is that it is confident it will happen.

We will have to see..

[11_percent] 17/6/2020 14:58

The Goldbug analysist tend to be from the companies that sell gold, so they are basically salesmen.

Bitcoin......have not got into it, so don't realy have an opinion. However, I go with MA when he says the Govs will just outlaw it.

[atlantic57] 17/6/2020 13:12

The Gold Bugs are consistently wrong :

They consistently claim that the money printing will lead to hyper inflation.

I agree at the point the masses loose confidence in the system whether it be banks or
Government gold may have a run.

Bitcoin etc will also have a run in my view

[11_percent] 17/6/2020 11:53

Banks.

Yes, the looses from bad loans from companies going bust will start to show.


The problem we have is.....Soc has picked some dates that are spot on. However, some things have not happened.....the current big one being the crash/retest of the lows.

Like yourself, I have missed out on the current rally.....waiting for the re-test.

GOLD
He has been fairly consistent here, and I think given good predictions.
Has talked about gold going substantially higher, but not yet......which is a good call, as the banks are perceived to be in trouble yet.

This is in contrast to the "goldbug" analysts who keep saying that the $ will collapse tomorrow and gold will $10,000 next week.

Yes....the pattern is that dates keep getting pushed forward.

[atlantic57] 17/6/2020 09:09

Socratese has always been good at predicting general trends.

However i remain sceptical of The claims that it is able to look ahead and predict accurately what will happen before it happens.

What i note in the markets that i follow eg gold rdsb oil dow is that dates keep changing and like Larry edelson the dates keep getting pushed forwards.

For myself i have missed on the rallies expecting the big crash.
i will wait till july if no correction has occurred i will reconsider.

Clearly the next big event is us elections.

[atlantic57] 16/6/2020 09:47

Many business will collapse when furlough is removed so the banks sill start showing the impairment losses in early 2021.

[11_percent] 16/6/2020 09:28

Yes.....its a shambles....but there is still a general trust in banks, etc.

Its when we get a few banks failing, or needing bailed out that people will get concerned and panic.

Then we should see gold fly.

[atlantic57] 16/6/2020 09:16

11 I think Socratese will struggle to predict a collapse in the markets as fed intervention keeps muddying the waters.

The loss of confidence in government is here.

From here on in it will rapidly develop momentum in my opinion.

More and more of the population are seeing through let’s set up a committee to talk about x and then forget about it.

Also in the final quarter of the calendar year 2020 the destruction wrought through lockdown will be readily apparent .The handling of the pandemic in the U.K. has been shambolic and again this will not inspire people to trust government.

[11_percent] 16/6/2020 08:52

I think this blog relates to your question. Markets (shares/equities) will rise as people start to realise that Govs are bust and will default on the bond interest payments.