Mallett Share Discussion Threads

[11_percent] 28/7/2020 23:41

If gold can exceed todays high tomorrow, (today = Tues and tomorrow = Wed) then there is a shot of the high forming this week on the 29th. Then we need to see close above 1926 on Friday. The failure to do this will see a retest of support into September.


So.....looking for gold to go higher than today, tomorrow.

[patientcapital] 28/7/2020 20:41

Nominal highs for gold aren't high enough in real terms.

[atlantic57] 28/7/2020 18:25

Socrates has not had a good record of late on anything.
Let us see what unfolds this week.

[11_percent] 28/7/2020 11:31

Still calling a temp high......re-test of support into Sept (anyone know what support is?)

Although paragraph 1 seems to talk about that not happening....i think.


Soc has called a fall in the gold price a few times. Although gold took a breather, it did not fall much.

I am betting a big fall is not going to happen......but pay attention and take action if it does look like it is on the cards.

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In interesting stuff on digital currencies and the e-RMB......seen as the reason for the spike in gold price.

Calling the fall of the US$ in 2022-2024.

[11_percent] 28/7/2020 11:24

Another blog on gold.

===================

Gold Making New High – Tues 28/07/20

Gold broke through the Breakout Line for the third time intraday but for the second time closing above it. Our primary targets were 1926 and 1976 and the upward channel resistance stands at 1982.10 by Wed 29th. If gold can exceed todays high tomorrow, (today = Tues and tomorrow = Wed) then there is a shot of the high forming this week on the 29th. Then we need to see close above 1926 on Friday. The failure to do this will see a retest of support into September.

Paragraph 2. (My words). Talking heads have been spouting about US/China and CV-19. However, the real concern is the e-RMB. China is trialing the e-RMB in 4 major cities and this is the first digital currency to be used by a major economy.

Paragraph 3. China can use the e-RMB to circumvent the SWIFT system and US sanctions.

Paragraph 4. China studied Bitcoin and saw it could bypass the SWIFT system.

Paragraph 5. This (gold or e-RMB?) is on time outwith July target (???)……….opening door to whole new money system which will be critical as we head into the Monetary Crisis Cycle 2021 – 2022. Other nations will follow this digital currency ASAP. Some see this as the death of the US$, butt hat may not arrive till 2022-2024. US politicians are stupid, don’t understand digital currency.


Ideally, we still see a temporary high this week with a target range 1976-1986, just shy of the 2000 level. Exceeding 1986, implies the next resistance stands at 2003-2005.

[11_percent] 28/7/2020 10:03

Gold

Major overhead resistance stands at 1920 and 1976.

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Gold was spiking to 1980 this morning.....2-3 am (GMT).

Backed off from 1976 resistance....now 1934.

[11_percent] 27/7/2020 10:13

Well......Soc said gold would go higher this week, and it has.....and volatility has increased.

Major overhead resistance stands at 1920 and 1976..........spot is 1939


Lets see if this week is a temp high.

[atlantic57] 26/7/2020 16:57

In approximately December 2018 the masdaq fell sharply and variouse charting experts announced that the world was about to end as huge technical damage had been done.

i sold at a loss.
Almost immediately markets roared back to new record highs .

In around april 2020 the Nasdaq collapsed i sold out.
Again the markets roared back taking out new highs.

This time round socrates has been predicting for months that we will test the march lows.To date he has been wrong.

Post the us elections where can people put their money ?

quality us stocks would appear to be a good place to me

If you can call the exact time to buy and sell thats great .

[11_percent] 26/7/2020 12:41

Hi apatel21,

Welcome to the thread.

A lot of the predictions are on the Private Blog in Soc, so I guess you miss them.

I post the blogs which relate to predictions of the markets, PMs, FX, etc......with the aim of using the info to trade and make money.

His/Soc predictions on short term moves has been mixed, although some his longer term trend predictions have been good.

[apatel21] 26/7/2020 10:03

Hi guys I'm glad I discovered this board.I've been following Martin Armstrong a fair bit for a while but not a subscriber to Socrates.I found his back history very interesting.I've got to say his calls have been very mixed. A good one was when DOW was 15k and others saw the market as overvalued he was saying it would go to 30k. His prediction looked crazy at that point in time. His calls on Gold have been less successful. He was calling for Gold to hit 950 or even 850 4/5 years ago but it did not get there. Lowest I think it got was 1,150 or so.I wish you guys well and I will pop in now and again if ok with you.I've

[11_percent] 26/7/2020 10:00

The problem as I see it is that MA/Soc is usually right at some point.

My gut feel is that the US indexes are detached from the actual economy and will fall at some point......but i dont know when.

The Nasdaq / FANG stocks are now the "Blue Chips"......and have replaced the what were the thought of as the blue chips.

On Monday AMAZ put put on 7%. This is the total market cap of Shell, which I have always thought of as a large blue chip company paying a good dividend.

Its now just a tiddler.

[atlantic57] 26/7/2020 09:46

For what it is worth I currently have 40% exposure to Nasdaq type stocks .
I accept they could fall sharply.
Cash 20%

Oil and gold miners 30%

[11_percent] 26/7/2020 09:38

Taking the 2 gold blogs together.

“Exceeding that high will allow gold to rise perhaps into next week where volatility should rise.”
We did exceed that on both Thurs and Fri, and Friday close was $1,901 again, IG Spot graphs).
So, we are looking at gold going higher next week, with increased volatility…230;……and the major overhead resistance stands at 1920 and 1976.

However, July is a temporary high………volatility will be high till May 2021.

However, July might not be the temp high if we get a CYCLE INVERSION.
That needs…..July to close above 1926 and for August to make new highs.

Summary.
July was the temp high.
Higher next week.
However, July might not be the temp high if we get a CYCLE INVERSION.
That needs…..July to close above 1926 and for August to make new highs.

======================================

For what it is worth.....I am going to keep buying gold/PMs and mining shares.

[atlantic57] 26/7/2020 09:29

Ok ignoring Socratese what makes sense to me is the following scenario.

If the fed does increase stimulus next week then gold should be propelled sharply higher.However followed by a modest pull back say 5%.

No stimulus next week a modest pull back.

The trend is your friend.

[11_percent] 26/7/2020 09:15

Gold and July – 27/-7/20

There is a lot politics in this blog, so I will take out what is directly related to gold.

July has been our target for a temporary high in gold.

Our models have shown that in gold, volatility will now rise beginning in July and remain higher than normal going into May 2021. ONLY EXCEEDING the July high would imply a cycle inversion and gold would rise because the fake polls are putting Biden 10 points higher and we now have the Democrats claiming that any debate is pointless because Trump is finished. ………;……̷0;….

To create a Cycle Inversion, where gold rallies into the election, we need July to close above 1926 and for August to make new highs. Otherwise, we pull back, consolidate, and get ready for the rally with the Monetary Crisis Cycle.

[11_percent] 26/7/2020 09:14

I have tried to trade the US indexes.....and have lost money.....not a lot because I keep a sharp eye out and close my position when it goes against me.

I was generally short,.....when the indexes were going higher in the latest bounce from the March lows......I was always waiting for re-test of the lows as per Soc.

I also note that, although the indexes have generally stopped going higher, they have not crashed to give us the re-test of the lows that Soc was predicting.

I am concentrating on gold, and have given up on the US indexes.

[atlantic57] 26/7/2020 08:20

a penetration of that level intraday (10149) can lead to a sharp panic decline if sustained.

This is typical of the comments that Socratese makes on the nasdaq.

If you guys are clever enough to trade these signals i am pleased for you i can't

[atlantic57] 25/7/2020 13:54

Eleven I held back from buying the rally
A very costly error believing the Dow was about to plunge.

It may plummet but he has been predicting this for months.

With regards to gold again unclear
What his message is .For several months he
Has been inferring that Gold was about to hit a high .

Best to follow your own instincts

[11_percent] 25/7/2020 12:01

Hi guys,

a57, your link to Sprottmoney.
This seems to be in line with most gold price predictions.
They are mainly saying that gold has a good run, and is due a consolidation/pull back.
Actual values vary a bit, but most are saying, there will be a pause.

g4, yes, my comments were a bit focused, looking only at the blog and a narrow time frame, last week and next week.
Agree, it does imply a top, next week (as we did not get it last week).

============

As I say, I am long PMs and mining shares and have well recently. Long term, I can only see them going up, and buy any dips.

The consensus seems to be "we are heading for all time highs, and it will not happen at the first attempt".

Going to be interesting........lets see if we get the high next week.

============

“I don’t rule out a test of the 2011 record high before we head down, but as I’ve said, I sincerely doubt we break it on the first attempt, and even if we do, it is likely to be a false breakout.”

[georgethefourth] 25/7/2020 11:26

I took his latest post to be saying that a top in gold was either this last week, or else this week coming. I think he mentioned previously that he saw gold falling for sept/October and then will properly take off. This tallies up with his thoughts on the Dow as well. Ie topping and falling back into the election, and then heading back up.

I hope he's right. Apart from a handful of miners, I sold most of them

[atlantic57] 25/7/2020 11:07

Frankly 11 i think his posts are only of value on general trends.

Socratese tends to cover ever angle and then he says he called it accurately.

This is a very helpful post in my view on gold


hxxps://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/here-cometh-the-fed-david-brady-july-24-2020.html?utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=DBrady_July/24

[11_percent] 25/7/2020 10:58

DOW AND THE US INDEXES

We have talked about these a lot in the past.

A re-test of the lows (in DOW) were predicted......the re-test crash.

Did not happen, and it looks like the indexes are topping out......although the S&P 100 is high.

Have not had a private blog on the DOW for a while.

[11_percent] 25/7/2020 10:48

Ok, I have:

“YesterdayR21; (Wed 22/07/20) was a target for a potential high.
I have that as a close of $1,877 (using IG Spot graphs).

“Exceeding that high will allow gold to rise perhaps into next week where volatility should rise.”

We did exceed that on both Thurs and Fri, and Friday close was $1,901 again, IG Spot graphs).


So, we are looking at gold going higher next week, with increased volatility…230;……and the major overhead resistance stands at 1920 and 1976.

Note: Gold and shares going higher together.
We are looking at DEFLATION going forward.

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This suits me as I am heavy into PMs and mining shares.

All I know is - GOLD IS GOING UP......and I will buy any dips.

[11_percent] 25/7/2020 10:26

Gold into July – posted Thurs 23/-7/20

Yesterday (Wed 22/07/20) was a target for a potential high.
Exceeding that high will allow gold to rise perhaps into next week where volatility should rise.
A break of yesterdays low will warn that we have a temporary high in place for now.
The major overhead resistance stands at 1920 and 1976.
Keep in mind that gold is by no means rising because of the quantity of money nor the threat of hyperinflation. We gave a very threat of DEFLATION which will be the capitulation of Sovereign Debt. The EU summit revealed that the clash in fiscal philosophy among the EU members still exists. This will be the source of a serious crack in confidence in Governments as a whole.

2nd paragraph – Big bang in 2015.75 – peak confidence in Gov – start of negative interest rates.
Brexit / Trump, toxic politics – war between right and left.

3rd paragraph – Keep in mind that gold is rising with the STOCK MARKET.
Text on Gov debt.

4th paragraph – It is not hyperinflation which but the collapse of debt which will become DEFLATIONARY which is why the smart money is moving from PUBLIC to PRIVATE SECTOR INVESTMENTS.