Mallett Share Discussion Threads

[atlantic57] 13/7/2020 09:49

Even a broken clock is correct twice in 24 hours .

Nasdaq i think he is saying november peak.

best follow your own instincts .
The you tube post i posted seems sensible but he cant pick dates and nor can anyone else.

[georgethefourth] 13/7/2020 09:09

Atlantic - not sure about the energy level indicator, I haven't heard of that one except as mentioned by Armstrong. I think it must be one that he's developed so maybe only available with the pro subscription.

He's talking about an August top now. First June, then July and now August...

[atlantic57] 10/7/2020 10:52

Interesting presentation on gold makes good sense but not much use.

All these technical analysts appear to be rear view mirror people telling you what has happened after the event.

George can you direct me to any sites which pick up on the energy level in the wave.

i think Socrates refers to this as the oscillator..

[atlantic57] 08/7/2020 22:49

It is late 11 percent, I can’t make head or tail of what he is saying in terms of short term trends.

Medium term for me gold up
Stock markets up

Where can people put there money, not on deposit zero return.
Clearly in the short term anything can happen, the two black swan events in the short term.

a) If economies are locked down this could cause the much heralded correction.

b) Gold to many people talking about one way bets

[11_percent] 08/7/2020 22:38

Well.....we have not had the crash/re-test........but the Nasdaq is going higher and DOW and S&P treading water.

[11_percent] 05/7/2020 22:21

Nice selection.

I have:

Miners: HGM (gold and divi) / PUR - gold (safe country Canada) / HOC (silver).

Sprotts Gold and Silver trusts.

3GOL for gold ETF, 3x long.

[patientcapital] 05/7/2020 16:35

Likewise - IGLN, SPGP, CNR, NYSE:GOLD (ex RRS).

[11_percent] 05/7/2020 16:25

PC,

One of the reasons I say Gold will go up, and why I am buying it.....and Silver.

[patientcapital] 05/7/2020 16:10

The music cannot go on forever. Don't be without a strong seat when it stops.

[11_percent] 05/7/2020 12:57

Personally......I still think that US (and hence other) shares markets are too high and do not reflect the economy.

However, the FED will not let the indexes fall...…."don't fight the FED".

I have lost a bit of cash as I take a short position when US indexes look weak, and ready to fall...….just to have to sell when they go up. I have been trying to take a position against he trend.

I have missed a big rise in the Nasdaq/FANG.

I am going to hold onto my long position in Gold, miners, etc.

However, I will avoid Crypto.....as it too easy for Gov to shut down.

[11_percent] 05/7/2020 12:50

04/07/20 – Gold for the Close of the 2nd Quarter

Figures – Gold price/quarterly, going back to 1986.
Slow Stocastic – PEI Accumulated Energy – Internal Volitility

Gold closed the second quarter on a high note.
Seasonally, gold tends to make highs and lows during June which may yet be the case on a CLOSING basis – not intraday.
Here we can see that our RATE OF INTERNAL VOLATILITY which has still not reached the levels of the 1970s going into 1980 when confidence in Government was collapsing and they were also hoarding toilet paper, which seems to be an indicator of periods of decline in public confidence.

We still expect to see volatility rise during the 2021 – 2022 which may match the late 1970s.
Cyclically, for gold to close above the June high points to a rally into July.
This is starting to warn of a cycle inversion and what we expect to see for the elections significantly rising tensions and violence.
We see a potential high in July followed by a retest of support into September, and then rising prices again thereafter into the elections.

==========

Basically saying.....Gold is going up.....which is my take, and that of many others.

Might go up in July, and retest in September......then up again as the chaos of the elections hit.

Then up again 2021 - 2022 when the currency crisis hits.

Its going up.

Volatility is not yet at 1970s level.....ok, the general public have still not lost confidence in Banks and Fiat.....as per the 1970s.

[atlantic57] 05/7/2020 07:32

Technical analysis has always seemed to me to be the art of hindsight not foresight.

It is surely common sense that if a chart breaks a previous low or a previous high this is very significant.

For example when gold reached its last high it quickly fell back to around the 1800
Dollar mark.For this reason this price level is very significant to break through and it seems to be a major resistance point.

The Nasdaq now has made a new high so physcogically the momentum on the upside appears to be there.

I suspect the election in the states will be the next big event

[georgethefourth] 04/7/2020 21:35

Yes it's a bit frustrating isn't it. I interpreted it to mean the Dow and s&p will retest their lows but the Nasdaq won't fall that far. Although I wouldn't be surprised to see only a 10% drop and Armstrong saying that was it and how he called it to perfection. Won't do me much good though, my shorts are heavily underwater still.

I see he just put out an update on gold. More of the same. He seems to be calling for a rise this month, then a two month pullback and then continued rise. Again, doesn't do me much good. I was under the impression he was calling for a decent drop in gold and so didn't load up on any miners...

[atlantic57] 04/7/2020 10:37

Having re visited armstrong i really cant follow what he is saying.
On the one hand is saying the Dow will lead markets down on the other hand he is saying each market is different ,which makes more sense.

If you can read the tea leaves well done i certainly cant

By standing back i have missed a huge surge in the market ( trading the dips)

Going forwards you have to interpret short term signals

[atlantic57] 03/7/2020 10:29

Ok guys my perception here remains the same for trends Socratese is excellent short term not much use.

Gold still covering every possible eventuality

Dow still talking about downward bias but resistance and support means all bases covered.


Nasdaq going like a train he now appears to be changing tune and saying November is the turning point

[11_percent] 29/6/2020 09:48

Thanks for the link, had not heard that one.

[atlantic57] 27/6/2020 15:22

If the link works interview with Martin Armstrong 23 june 2020

[atlantic57] 27/6/2020 10:45

Dow is behaving in line with Socratese forecast.

Gold the bottom line for me is he is saying it is a buy on a longer term view.

Short term there may be significant volatility

[atlantic57] 26/6/2020 10:19

Yes 11 I agree over the medium term the facts suggest gold should be a good place to be.

I would again mention shareprophets online interview for hxxps://www.shareprophets.com/

This week there is a good discussion on gold.

I have no knowledge of technical analysis.
However seems to be :

A ) coiling for a major breakout

B) bouncing off resistance and falling back in the short term

I don’t know which it will be and nor does Socratese

[11_percent] 26/6/2020 10:01

I found this blog good.....its a description of the working of the ECB.





CONCLUSION
The ECB is trapped. It cannot raise rates to raise money and it has destroyed its bond market. The only way out is to default on all debt and they will do that by declaring it to be now a perpetual debt that only pays interest like an annuity. This will allow them to escape the formal default which is inevitable.

[atlantic57] 25/6/2020 22:09

bearish model for the close warning that upward momentum is subsiding.

this may prove a temporary high and a break of todays low of177060 would tend to confirm that.

furthermore short term oscillators have also signalled a possible crash


as i say he looks in every direction and concludes with a buy signal,,

[atlantic57] 25/6/2020 21:06

The last line taken in isolation is misleading .
The whole soc report is looking in every direction at the same time..

[11_percent] 25/6/2020 20:39

GOLD

Its a bit strange....I used to be able to see the Detailed market Reports....but mow I only see the Soc Summary Analysis.

Anyway, the last sentence of the analysis is saying that a buy signal has been generated.

Also, we need to close above 1,775 on a monthly basis to imply a technical reversal in trend to the upside for now.

I will go with the "buy signal" which has been generated.

[11_percent] 25/6/2020 20:13

His blog of 23rd June said "We still see June as a turning point in the Nasdaq, it is poised for at least the intraday high in June or at least the highest monthly closing."

If the turning point for the Nasdaq is June....then its tomorrow, Monday, or Tuesday.

=============

Yes, he has not said much about gold for a while.
I will go and have a look at the Soc Market Analysis.