Macfarlane Share Discussion Threads

[cs44] 20/4/2011 09:06

Smith DS reported good trading today and said they are successfully recovering input prices. Of course, this means MACF is likely to be trading well and we can only hope that they are as successful in passing on the increased costs!

[le frog] 24/3/2011 11:42

Tone was unintentional, I think the same as you (good news) that as all suppliers are suffering the same increases customers will accept it. In fact maybe more positive because of their buying power compared to smaller companies.

[aleman] 24/3/2011 10:42

Your tone makes it sound like bad news. I'm taking this to be good for MACF rather than bad, although it could take several months for margins to work through and I can imagine the company will probably complain. MACF did okay a couple of years ago when wood and paper jumped. It has moved us away from the environment we had where it was impossible to raise prices without customers trying to find replacement suppliers. They are more likely to just accept it now knowing it will avoid quality issues and other disruption you get when you change.

[le frog] 24/3/2011 09:12

Aleman
There have been substantial increases in the cost of corrugated board (both conventional and heavy duty) and plastics/foam over the last 12 months. Unfortunately they are still happening. The only consolation for Macfarlanes is that all suppliers are suffering from the same increases.

[aleman] 23/3/2011 14:58

Finsbury Foods (cakes) chairman complained after today's interims that packaging costs had shot up, witht the price of some doubling this year.

[hvs] 02/3/2011 07:57

RNS Number : 1411C

Macfarlane Group PLC

02 March 2011

2 March 2011

MACFARLANE GROUP ANNUAL RESULTS FOR THE YEAR TO 31 DECEMBER 2010

-- Group turnover increased by 9.6% to GBP135.5m (2009: GBP123.6m)

-- Profit before tax of GBP4.2m (2009: GBP2.5m)

-- Exceptional income benefits from curtailment gains in pension scheme of GBP1.1m

-- Profit before tax before exceptional items of GBP3.4m (2009: GBP3.2m)

-- Gross margin of 31.0% (2009: 32.5%)

-- Pension deficit reduced by 23% to GBP15.7m

Proposed final dividend up 5% to 1.05p per share, providing full year total of 1.55p

A good solid performance.

[aleman] 02/3/2011 07:33

Profit and earnings forecasts missed but underlying cashflow was strong, allowing a slightly increased dividend. Bad December weather probably had a slight effect. Net pension deficit at £11.5m was down over 20% and net debt fell a touch. Delays in passing on rises in raw materials often means a year of weaker margins so these should recover a touch this year and very strong UK manufacturing surveys suggest a good year for demand. Margin recovery and higher sales should make for a better year in 2011. A prospective yield of nearly 6% on 1.65p suggests limited downside at 29p.

[cs44] 22/2/2011 08:31

I don't know how much relevance to MACF can be found from the results of MONDI yesterday, but Mondi operates over a wide range of countries and their positive report on the packaging industry should (hopefully) bode well for us.
I know that the biggest problem for MACF is to cover the supplier price increases that are eroding net profits. Contracts run for months and prices can only be hiked when the new contract begins. This type of renegotiation can be very difficult if you are dealing with a powerful customer.

[aleman] 21/2/2011 16:16

EU manufacturing booms but input and output prices hit series records.

[aleman] 02/2/2011 16:44

02 February 2011

Macfarlane Group PLC

Notice of Results

Macfarlane Group PLC confirms that it will announce its results for the year ended 31 December 2010 on Wednesday 2 March 2011.

[l376233] 01/2/2011 16:28

a few buyers back today nice to see the share price rising

[l376233] 01/2/2011 15:33

Thanks cs44 for those coments i have taken my holdings up to 185659 with a view
macf will surrise us all

[cs44] 01/2/2011 15:17

I've been thinking a little more about the 6% net profit figure. If MACF reach this % on c. £130m turnover this equates to c. £7.8m profit. Take off 30% tax to give £5.5m or 5p eps and a share price of 60p. However, we must also take off the contribution to the pension deficit - say £2m - and something towards debt reduction - say £1m - to give £2.5m profit and eps c. 2.4p. That would give a share price in the higher 20's and would tie in with the forecasts.
To get the share price considerably higher we have to see greater turnover and, or, significant pension debt reduction.
I still feel that MACF has the potential to surprise but I suppose I'm biased.

[aleman] 01/2/2011 13:59

EU manufacturing PMI jumps. UK hits record high.

[cs44] 01/2/2011 13:15

For what it's worth I met an owner of a Midlands' packaging company - turnover of c. £10m - whilst on holiday. He tells me that packaging companies are doing well at the moment and they are achieving c. 6% net profit on turnover. If MACF do anything close to 6% we will see a positive move on the share price.
I'm not going to divulge the name of the company because I didn't clear it with the owner - I have to respect his confidentiality.
If MACF are not achieving the industry norm, then I think we should be asking the company for the reasons why they are lagging the competition!!

[aleman] 01/2/2011 12:58

Never let someone else assess risk for you. Moodys and S&P declared mortgage-backed securities the safest investments going.

[l376233] 01/2/2011 09:44

I notice the riskgrade has gone up to 219?

[sbabbab] 31/1/2011 16:13

no idea but i got stopped out this morning,
good luck to those holding

[bollers] 31/1/2011 13:52

Does anyone know why the sudden drop today?

[aleman] 21/1/2011 12:52

Thanks, LG, and apologies to t376233. It is indeed in there.

It doesn't write up the company or look at fundamentals up but is a purely chart analysis which gives a 73p target after 40p and 46p. It starts "A move through 32p would..." and never even bothered to discuss targets for failure to do so. For someone publishing in a well known investment magazine, omitting downside targets seems unprofessional. Without knowing downside targets and the likelihood of each should a break downwards occur, one can't judge the risk/reward ratio to see how compelling the buy is for an upwards break.

Incidentally, I don't bother much to look at Shares few charting articles as I don't rate them much, so would miss many of them at the best of times. I was distracted a bit recently by becoming a dad so there is much that has been skimmed over in recent weeks.

[mrphil] 20/1/2011 16:29

Thought I should pop a few more in the SIPP.

[lord gnome] 19/1/2011 22:18

Aleman. It was edition 12/51 dated 23 December 2010. It is purely a chart projection by Simon Griffin, the resident Chartist. It needed to push through and hold above 32p to breach the longstanding bear trend line. Looks like that one failed then.

[aleman] 19/1/2011 18:00

I don't belive Shares have this as 73p. I haven't seen it. Can you substantiate it?

[l376233] 19/1/2011 14:20

The charts look very good. I put a price target of 40 then to 46 once we break the Penant Pattern.
Sharemagazine have this at 73p.
cs44 the comment made by surrey surfer