Macfarlane Share Discussion Threads

[empirestate] 29/8/2009 01:20

bought into these today as the weight on the share price appears to be easing considerably, hopefully next week will be the last of the sellers load to be filled and a decent run can commence

[l376233] 28/8/2009 16:11

Recovery looking good for 2010, and with the intention of declaring a higher final dividend, dependent on performance and subject to shareholder approval at the Annual General Meeting in May 2010.So I will be looking to increase my holding from 166k to 200k and keep my fingers crossed

[diku] 28/8/2009 15:12

Once again towards the end of the day this has woken up!!...

[diku] 27/8/2009 22:20

8trade...not seen such chunky trades for a long time...awaiting for RNS disclosure...

[8trade] 27/8/2009 21:07

Highest volume clearly this year !

You say a overhang clearing diku, i dont follow this stock but having
a look it's the type i go for aka recovery play, you know who was selling
and think it was totally cleared then ?

[diku] 27/8/2009 16:17

Towards the end of the day this has woken up!..

[aleman] 27/8/2009 14:25

Could be director buys. It would explain why commentary on results was subdued when I thought cashflow outlook seemed quite good.

[diku] 27/8/2009 13:48

yes...overhang about to clear with those chunky trades...

[cs44] 27/8/2009 13:45

Maybe the stock overhang is clearing and any subsequent buying will boost the share price. We should see an RNS soon confirming the seller, and it will be interesting to see who picked up the line of stock - assuming that there is only one seller and one buyer.

[diku] 27/8/2009 09:50

That 85K could be director buy!...just a hunch..

[aleman] 27/8/2009 08:52

Do this lot never report anything optimistically? Operating cashflow improved by over £600k on last year but that was after over £300k of restructuring costs. Operating cash outflow in the weaker H1 was really about £950k better. Turnover was down about £5.4m but sales cost and overheads were down £5.0m which was a rapid response. Any recovery in demand from here should work wonders on the reduced cost base. It suggests H2 cashflow won't be much below the £6.9m of last year so the total year number could be similar (£4.2m). Also, distribution did very well in difficult circumstances. It was manufacturing that caused the problems and they have clearly addressed that pretty quickly although the exchange rate could still be problematic. The pension fund's deficit has risen but it still looks manageable given the cashflow trend and rising asset values since period end.

[cs44] 27/8/2009 07:20

The results are very much in line with the statement released at the agm. The anticipated dividend cut is there. Steady as she goes but the pension deficit is a problem. The reassurance on the outlook for the second half should give the share price a nudge but I wouldn't expect it to exceed 20p. Those who bought in for the results will very likely exit quickly.

[bfranz] 26/8/2009 20:46

brown trousers time

[diku] 26/8/2009 11:50

guys results tomorrow...

[bfranz] 25/8/2009 22:38

why is the seller selling before results?

[cwa1] 25/8/2009 08:30

Hmmmmmmmmmm. 400k chaged hands by first thing. Price ticked up a smidgeon. Is it too much to hope for that things have settled down and any seller might be out now?

[empirestate] 24/8/2009 21:39

just wonder who the seller is and how much to go, nav is at a 50% premium mcap, pretty lowly geared, but gbp27m goodwill and intangibles. should be interesting to see results, but doubt if there will be much action unless the seller is cleared out as the weight is too heavy on the sp

[diku] 24/8/2009 16:28

looks like somebody forgot to flick the price movement switch here!...

[cs44] 24/8/2009 15:02

There may be buyers but someone is happy to supply their requirements, hence the static share price. The same scenario has been played out over the past few weeks.

[diku] 24/8/2009 13:52

results out this week...buyers on main market and plus market...

[simon gordon] 19/8/2009 18:30

KBC have forecast the dividend being held at 2p, price was 17p when the note was issued:

'Renewed focus. The sale of the plastics business has now gone through and management can focus on the core packaging manufacturing and packaging distribution businesses. As the disposal completed after the year end, this also means the debt position for 2009E is already £1.4m better than at the year end.

Clear market leader. Macfarlane is clear market leader in UK packaging distribution and with the acquisitions of Online and Allpoint in 2008, its position is now even stronger. Its size will stand it in good stead going into the difficult market ahead, and we expect it to emerge even stronger when the market returns.

Valuation and recommendation. With the market in 2009E looking increasingly difficult we are lowering our PBT forecast by 10% to £3.6m, and EPS to 2.4p. The yield is a healthy 11% (covered just over 1x) and we are increasing our target price to 25p based on just over 9x 2009 EPS (which would return an 8% yield). With few apparent catalysts for the shares in the short term, we have changed our Corporate recommendation (as per the new KBC recommendation policy) to HOLD.'

[aleman] 19/8/2009 18:17

Thanks, sg. Free cashflow of £3.0m makes a market cap of £19m look good value but as you say it depends on demands of the pension fund, i.e. top-up payments. That forecast suggests £2.4m spent somewhere other than paying down debt by £0.6m - itself not necessarily needed.

A 2.0p dividend would take £2.25m so where is the extra £0.56m going if they only pay 1.5p? Probably toward the pension fund's £17m deficit. The unnaccounted for £0.15m (£3m-0.6m-2.25m) would add to that and take it to £0.71m for the pension fund. That would be a typical extra payment with a view to an increase if markets got worse. Note that they could maintain the 2.0p dividend, leave debt static at £7.2m and still pay £0.71m off the pensions deficit. This demonstrates the likely cash generative nature of the company and leaves room for a glimmer of hope they won't cut. I wouldn't get too carried away with things until we see some definite talk of a pick up in packaging markets, however. If things have remained flat then 1.5p looks likely as they will want a buffer against increasing the pension contribution and the debt reduction would go down well in the market. Here's hoping for an optimistic outlook which would lead to an unlikely held dividend or, more likely a suggestion that they are in a reasonable position to grow the new 1.5p level next year.

[le frog] 19/8/2009 16:25

Been a lot of share activity this month so far (by Macfarlane standards!) Think its about 50/50ish with slightly more buys than sells. I make it about 830k buys and 679k sells. Usually a lot quieter than that. Don't ask me what it means though!

[simon gordon] 19/8/2009 15:55

KBC Peel Hunt - 5/3/09:

Summary Cashflow 12/09

Operating profit: 4.4
Depreciation: 2.2
Amortisation: 0.3
EBITDA: 6.9
Working capital: -0.5
Operating cash flow: 4.2
Net interest: -0.4
Tax paid: -0.3
Total capex: -0.5
Free cash flow: 3.0
Net free cash inflow (outflow): 0.6
Opening net (debt)/cash: -7.2
Closing net (debt)/cash: -6.6